NHL "Mid-Season" Review: Where We Stand and Where We're (Potentially) Going

Atlantic Division

The defending champs continue to be the class of the Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers hold a three-point lead over the Toronto Maple Leafs at the break, though Toronto has two games in hand. Sam Reinhart has 31 goals after scoring a career-high 57 last year, while Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov have eclipsed 50 points. Toronto is breathing down their necks, led by Mitch Marner's 55 assists and 71 points. They've been able to overcome injuries to Auston Matthews (45 points in 40 games) thanks to Marner, William Nylander (33 goals), and Matthew Knies' breakout (21 goals). Rounding out the Top 3 is Tampa Bay, who've not lost a step after letting Steven Stamkos walk. Jake Guentzel has plugged in and provided a ton of offense next to Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. 

If the season ended at the break, both Wild Card teams would be from the Atlantic, with Ottawa and Detroit holding off stiff competition to occupy those positions. The only team not in the race right now is Buffalo, who are six points behind the Canadiens for last in the division. The Senators have gotten consistent goaltending with Linus Ullmark's additions, while Detroit has relied on the continued growth of Lucas Raymond and the steady leadership of Dylan Larkin. Boston has been bubbling under the surface for a minute as they try to figure things out. It turns out that tearing apart the best goalie tandem in the league isn't a smart idea. Montreal had done a great job of getting themselves into a good spot, but a tough patch before the break has them back near the bottom, albeit still in the fight.

Metropolitan Division

The race in the Metro has been incredible so far. Like the Atlantic, the Top 3 appear locked in, led by the Washington Capitals, the owners of the best record in the Eastern Conference and the second-best record overall. Alex Ovechkin's race for the goal-scoring record could realistically end this season as he sits 16 goals away. Carolina hasn't taken a step back despite departures during the offseason. They've suffered from inconsistency but have made a huge splash in the trade market by acquiring Mikko Rantanen and Taylor Hall. New Jersey, as expected, has rebounded to reach the Top 3 behind good health and secure goaltending. Last season was an anomaly for the Devils as they've returned to being legitimate threats.

The rest of the division is locked in an intense battle. Only five points separate fourth-place Columbus from last-place Philadelphia. The Blue Jackets have turned one of the most unimaginable tragedies into an incredible season, led by Zach Werenski's Norris-level campaign. The Rangers are right outside of the picture after an uncharacteristically bad start, though they've started to find their groove. The Islanders, Penguins, and Flyers are all within whispering distance of a Wild Card spot, but they face a considerable climb to jump all of the teams ahead of them. 

Central Division

There's a clear divide between the Top 4 and the Bottom Four in the Central Division, with the rise and fall of two specific teams dominating headlines. First, the Winnipeg Jets have been the league's best team since the puck dropped this season. Owning the most points at the break, the Jets have won eight straight games for the second time this season. They're the league's best offense and best defense, with Connor Hellebuyck the runaway favorite to repeat as the Vezina winner. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Nashville Predators have been the league's greatest disappointment. After an offense in which they added three high-profile free agents, the Predators have the third-worst record in the NHL. They have been a complete dumpster fire. Their offense has been abysmal, and Juuse Saros' game has fallen off a cliff.

The rest of the division has gone to form. The Dallas Stars sit nine points back but would be leading the Pacific Division if that's any indication of how well Winnipeg has been playing. The Minnesota Wild aren't too far behind despite playing without Kirill Kaprizov for most of the season. The Avalanche haven't looked as dominant with goaltending issues being their chief concern. They've tried rectifying it by making wholesale changes and hoping Nathan MacKinnon can continue to score a million points. Year 1 for the Utah Hockey Club has been a mixed bag, though they still have a dog in the fight. The same can be said for St. Louis as they continue to tread lightly in the Wild Card race. The Blackhawks remain in the cellar in Connor Bedard's second season, though the sophomore has broken through the brick wall holding him back at the start of the year.

Pacific Division

It's shaping up to be a two-horse race to the finish line in the Pacific Division, featuring the last two Western Conference champions. Vegas and Edmonton enter the break deadlocked at 72 points, with Edmonton owning a slight edge with fewer games played. Leon Draisaitl is on the inside track to win the Rocket this season, becoming the first player to reach 40 goals. He's also second in the league in scoring with 83 points, while Connor McDavid is tied for fourth (71). Vegas has dealt with its share of injuries once again, but their stars have been producing when they're in the lineup. Jack Eichel has played the entire season, leading the group with 50 assists and 69 points. They were dealt a tough blow when Shea Theodore left the 4 Nations opener with a broken wrist. 

Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Kings, the Vancouver Canucks, and the Calgary Flames are battling for two spots. The Kings lead the trio for third in the division by two points and have played the fewest games in the league thus far. They have 29 games to cram into a little over a month and a half as they try to hold off the Canucks. Vancouver's biggest issues seem to be in the locker room because all people have talked about is the riff between Elias Pettersson and JT Miller. They've already shipped Miller to the Rangers, and Pettersson very well could be next. They've benefitted from the loser point more than anyone, leading the league with 11 extra-time losses. The Flames are on the cut line right now, sitting three points behind the Canucks for the second Wild Card. Rookie Dustin Wold has assumed control of the net, but the group in front of him is the third worst at putting the puck in the net. Flying under the radar, the Ducks sit at .500 at the break. While I don't believe it'll last, it's still an interesting story. The Kraken haven't been able to find their footing and the Philipp Grubauer experiment seems to be ending. The Sharks bring up the rear, but Macklin Celebrini has been good, so there's that. 

Updated Playoff Standings and Predictions

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Top 3

1. Florida

2. Toronto

3. Tampa Bay

For starters, there's a clear divide between the Top 3 and the rest of the division, so, unless someone gets really hot or stumbles mightily, I'm not anticipating any changes. I'm calling on Florida's experience to pull them back to the top of the division as they fight it out with Toronto the rest of the way. It might be good news for the Maple Leafs, who'll get to avoid Boston in the first round and face Tampa Bay instead.  

Metropolitan Top 3

1. Washington

2. Carolina

3. New Jersey

The Capitals are running away with the division, and I don't think Carolina or New Jersey should bother trying to catch up. Instead, the battle for second place and home ice in the first round will be much more exciting. I picked Carolina and New Jersey to finish second and third, respectively, in the preseason, and I have an unwavering bias as a Hurricanes fan to keep them in a favorable position come April.

Wild Cards

1. New York (R)- I picked the Rangers to win the division. I had no idea they were about to be this bad. Yet, through all of the terribleness, they remain one of the best-looking rosters in the conference. The comeback begins with Igor Shesterkin playing better and the slackers on offense finally putting two and two together. This isn't what I want, which is why I think it's going to happen.

2. Columbus- Call me crazy, but everything is looking up for the Blue Jackets right now. They're expected to get Boone Jenner and Kirill Marchenko back in the lineup after the break. Assuming their goaltending is just a little better and their offense continues to score a lot, I'm all in on the feel-good story.

First Round

Washington over Columbus in 6

Carolina over New Jersey in 7

Florida over New York in 6

Toronto over Tampa Bay in 7

Second Round

Carolina over Washington in 6

Florida over Toronto in 6

Eastern Conference Finals

Florida over Carolina in 6

Western Conference

Central Top 3

1. Winnipeg

2. Dallas

3. Colorado

Like in the Metro, Winnipeg is far enough ahead for me to think the top of the division is out of reach. This will be another close race for second place. The Stars are the more complete team on paper. Colorado might have more top-end skill, but Dallas has the decisive edge on defense and in the net. I think that will be enough to hold off the Avalanche as Minnesota falls out of the Top 3 with Kirill Kaprizov's injury.

Pacific Top 3

1. Edmonton

2. Vegas

3. Los Angeles

Coming off scoring the championship-winning goal in the 4 Nations Face-Off against the Americans, I have no reason to believe Connor McDavid won't kick it into hyperdrive the rest of the way. This spells danger for Vegas and every other team in their path. Vegas should still finish comfortably in second place and the Kings are still in a good spot to claim third in the division. Unfortunately, I'm not sure they'll survive past the first round...again.

Wild Cards

1. Minnesota- While Kaprizov's injury is a major bummer, they've been dealing with it for more of the season. They possess more than enough defense and in the net to ensure a postseason berth without their best forward on the ice. It also helps there's a clear Top 9 in the conference and they're comfortably above that line.

2. Vancouver- A season full of turmoil and one big trade isn't enough to dissuade me from excluding them from the postseason festivities. Assuming they don't trade Elias Pettersson that is. If Pettersson is hastily shipped away, the Canucks are out of the playoffs and Calgary is in their place. However, I see no reason for that to happen now.

First Round

Winnipeg over Vancouver in 5

Dallas over Colorado in 7

Edmonton over Minnesota in 5

Vegas over Los Angeles in 6

Second Round

Dallas over Winnipeg in 7

Edmonton over Vegas in 6

Western Conference Finals

Edmonton over Dallas in 6

Stanley Cup Finals

Edmonton over Florida in 7- It was my preseason pick and I've been given no reason to deviate now.

Awards Predictions/Amendments

Jack Adams

Preseason- Kris Knoblauch (EDM)

Updated- Spencer Carbery (WSH) over Scott Arniel (WPG) & Dean Evason (CBJ)

Selke

Preseason- Aleksander Barkov (FLA)

Updated- Jordan Staal (CAR) over Aleksander Barkov (FLA) & Anze Kopitar (LAK)

Rocket

Preseason- Auston Matthews (TOR)

Updated- Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over Sam Reinhart (FLA) & David Pastrnak (BOS)

Calder

Preseason- Matvei Michkov (PHI)

Updated- Macklin Celebrini (SJS) over Lane Hutson (MTL) & Dustin Wolf (CGY)

Norris

Preseason- Roman Josi (NSH)

Updated- Zach Werenski (CBJ) over Cale Makar (COL) & Quinn Hughes (VAN)

Vezina

Preseason- Igor Shesterkin (NYR)

Updated- Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) over Jacob Markstrom (NJD) & Logan Thompson (WSH)

Hart

Preseason- Leon Draisaitl (EDM)

Updated- Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over Nathan MacKinnon (COL) & Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)