College Football 24-25: Week 14 Review

My Top 25

1. Oregon (12-0)

2. Texas (11-1)

3. Penn State (11-1)

4. Notre Dame (11-1)

5. Georgia (10-2)

6. Tennessee (10-2)

7. Ohio State (10-2)

8. SMU (11-1)

9. Boise State (11-1)

10. Indiana (11-1)

11. Arizona State (10-2)

12. South Carolina (9-3)

13. Alabama (9-3)

14. Ole Miss (9-3)

15. Miami (10-2)

16. Iowa State (10-2)

17. BYU (10-2)

18. Army (10-1)

19. Memphis (10-2)

20. Clemson (9-3)

21. UNLV (10-2)

22. Colorado (9-3)

23. Illinois (9-3)

24. Syracuse (9-3)

25. Tulane (9-3)

My 12-Team Playoff (Before Conference Championship Week & Considering Overall Resumes)

1. Oregon (Big Ten)

2. Texas (SEC)

3. SMU (ACC)

4. Boise State (MWC)

5. Penn State (Big Ten) vs. 12. South Carolina

6. Notre Dame (IND) vs. 11. Arizona State (Big 12)*

7. Georgia (SEC) vs. 10. Indiana (Big Ten)

8. Tennessee (SEC) vs. 9. Ohio State (Big Ten)

13. Alabama

14. Ole Miss

15. Miami

Next Highest Conference Champion- #18 Army

Conference Championship Preview

ACC- SMU vs. Clemson

The Top 2 in the ACC took very different paths to reach the title game. In their first season as an ACC school, SMU has carved its way through the conference, finishing the regular season as the lone undefeated team in ACC play. Their lone loss came to BYU early in the year, and they survived close bouts at Louisville and Duke to stay perfect. Clemson is coming off a tough loss to South Carolina on Saturday, but locked in their spot after Syracuse upset Miami. The Tigers were blown out by Georgia to open the season and their lone ACC loss came to Louisville at home.

If SMU wins, the Mustangs should easily be in the Top 4 to earn the bye. They're likely to be #3, regardless of who wins the SEC and Big Ten championships. Clemson likely misses the playoff thanks to their loss to South Carolina.

If Clemson wins, the Tigers likely steal a spot from a fringe playoff team, but that is far from a guarantee. The South Carolina loss could prove costly. I still think they get in, but the real question would be whether SMU gets in, even with two losses.

Prediction- Clemson 27, SMU 23

Big Ten- Oregon vs. Penn State

Only one team managed to make it the entire season without losing a game. That would be the Oregon Ducks, who have flirted with disaster a time or two during their first season in the Big Ten. They survived a tight battle with Boise State early in the season and own a one-point victory over Ohio State. Penn State has quietly been one of the best one-loss teams in the country, flying under the radar of the national eye. Their lone blemish was a seven-point loss to the Buckeyes, though many will point to Penn State's schedule without several of the conference's best teams on it. Their best win was against Illinois at the beginning of the season.

If Oregon wins, the Ducks lock in the #1 spot in the ranking as the lone undefeated team left in the country. Penn State still makes the playoffs and still, potentially, hosts a quarterfinal game. 

If Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions take either #1 or #2, depending on whether Texas wins the SEC Championship. Either way, they finish locked into a top spot. Oregon likely hosts a playoff game with a loss as the #5 or #6 team in the ranking. The Big Ten Championship is one of two games where the winner and loser are likely in regardless of the result, with the other being the SEC Championship.

Prediction- Oregon 31, Penn State 20

 

Big 12- Arizona State vs. Iowa State

There were four teams tied for first place following play on Saturday, leaving Arizona State and Iowa State as the benefactors after tiebreakers were accounted for. Arizona State had the easiest path, needing a win to advance, which they easily secured against Arizona. The Sun Devils have dominated during a tough final stretch, earning big wins over Kansas State and BYU to secure their spot. Iowa State was at the mercy of BYU. Had the Cougars lost, Colorado would've been the second team in the title game. Instead, Iowa State finds itself in this spot. Iowa State lost back-to-back games to Texas Tech & Kansas but followed it up with three straight wins. 

If Arizona State wins, the Sun Devils should be no worse than the fifth-best conference champion, with a chance to sneak into a bye with some chaos with either an SMU or Boise State loss. Iowa State would take the top Big 12 spot in a very good bowl game.

If Iowa State wins, the Cyclones will likely find themselves on the road in the quarterfinals. This feels like a game where the winner gets in, while the loser is reduced to a normal bowl game, albeit a good one.

Prediction- Arizona State 38, Iowa State 24

SEC- Texas vs. Georgia

While the Big Ten game will feature two teams in the Top 3, this might be the more exciting game. Texas has taken the SEC by storm, securing the best record in the conference in its first year. The Longhorns' only loss is to the team they will face in Atlanta next Saturday. Georgia has been far from the dominant team of years past. While they own a victory over Texas, the Bulldogs fell to Alabama and Ole Miss, survived Kentucky during their SEC opener, and needed eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech on Friday. 

If Texas wins, the Longhorns are either #1 or #2, depending on the Big Ten title game (#1 if Oregon loses, #2 if Oregon wins). Georgia likely still makes the playoffs but probably is playing a road game in the quarterfinals.

If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs should be #2, regardless of the Big Ten Championship Game (I have Oregon and Penn State ahead of them). Texas doesn't fall far, making the playoffs and hosting in the quarterfinals.

Prediction- Georgia 24, Texas 21

MWC- Boise State vs. UNLV

This Boise State run is starting to feel reminiscent of the mid-to-late 2000s Broncos teams that took the football world by storm. Ahston Jeanty has been a big reason for that, rushing for over 2,100 and nearly 30 touchdowns. As a Heisman hopeful, Jeanty has displayed a game-breaking ability. The Broncos nearly beat Oregon early in the year but have been on a hot run since, winning ten in a row. UNLV has overcome some controversy this season, fighting to a 10-2 record. One of those two losses was to Boise State in late October. Jeanty ran for 128 yards and a touchdown in the 29-24 victory for the Broncos.

If Boise State wins, the Broncos would have the inside track to a bye in the quarterfinals. They would either be #3 or #4. UNLV goes to the Mountain West's top bowl game as Boise State's replacement since they'll be in the playoffs.

If UNLV wins, the Rebels would not be guaranteed a playoff spot, but they would send shockwaves through the CFP. UNLV likely needs to jump the winner of the AAC Championship Game (Army or Tulane) to make the playoffs. It also knocks Boise State out of contention because the committee wouldn't dare take them despite Ashton Jeanty's contributions this season.

Prediction- Boise State 40, UNLV 24

AAC- Army vs. Tulane

The stakes for this battle took a major hit with Tulane's loss to Memphis on Saturday. Tulane looked to be in position for one of the five conference champion's spots, only to fall at home during the final game of the regular season. Tulane had won eight straight after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State. Meanwhile, Army enters the game as the lone undefeated team in the AAC, losing their only game to Notre Dame. They still have Navy to forward to, making this a weird case where the conference title game comes before their final game. This is their first conference title appearance, while Tulane has been here plenty of times.  

If Army wins, the Black Knights will need a UNLV victory to have a chance at the playoffs, though that still doesn't guarantee them anything. UNLV has overtaken Army in the AP Poll, which will likely mean a similar result during Tuesday's reveal. It's more likely that Army gets the AAC's top bowl spot after facing Navy in two weeks. 

If Tulane wins, they will get the AAC's top bowl spot. Had they beaten Memphis, they might've had a case as the fifth conference champion with a Boise State loss.

Prediction- Army 32, Tulane 28

The only three games next week that lack College Football Playoff implications are the Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC title games.

Sun Belt- Marshall vs. Louisiana

I tried to find a way for this game to have any substantial stakes outside of bowl placement. The truth is that I can't. Louisiana owns ten wins, while Marshall has been rolling after early-season losses to Ohio State and Virginia Tech. 

Prediction- Louisiana 35, Marshall 27

C-USA- Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky

The two met to close the regular season with Western Kentucky earning a last-second field goal to win the game and clinch their spot in the title tilt. Jacksonville State had been undefeated in conference play before the loss, snapping an eight-game win streak in the process.

Prediction- Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17

MAC- Ohio vs. Miami (OH)

It'll be an all-Ohio title game in the MAC. Miami lost four of its first five games to begin the season before rattling off seven straight wins. This includes a 30-20 victory over Ohio, their only loss in conference play this season.

Prediction- Ohio 30, Miami (OH) 24