2024-25 NHL Preview

The start of the 2024-25 NHL season is right around the corner, so it's time to take an early look at how I think things will shape up. The 2023-24 season brought plenty of excitement. Connor Bedard made his presence felt, proving to be everything we'd hoped he'd be on his way to a Calder Trophy-winning performance. Auston Matthews was on the road to 70 goals, falling just short with 69 at the end of the season. Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov became the fourth and fifth players in NHL history to record 100 assists in a season, finishing third and second in the Hart Trophy race, respectively, to Nathan MacKinnon. Everything culminated with the Florida Panthers avoiding a 3-0 blown lead in the Stanley Cup Final by beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 to win their first Stanley Cup.

As I did last season, I'd like to start by explaining that my thoughts should not be taken as anything other than guesses. To prove that point, here are some of my predictions from last season that turned out to be major misses:

• Toronto wins the Atlantic Division and advances to the Eastern Conference Finals (They finished 3rd and lost in the first round to Boston in seven games...again)
• Buffalo finishes third in the Atlantic Division (They finished sixth and missed the playoffs)
• Florida misses the playoffs (They won the Stanley Cup)
• New Jersey finishes second in the Metropolitan Division (They finished seventh and missed the playoffs)
• Seattle over Los Angeles and Vancouver (Seattle finished 6th and missed the playoffs, while Los Angeles and Vancouver finished 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Pacific Division)
• Carolina, Toronto, Dallas, and Vegas were my picks to make the conference finals, but only one (Dallas) made it that far (Carolina vs. Dallas was my Stanley Cup Final pick, but neither team made it)
• Don Granato was my Jack Adams pick (He was fired this offseason)

I'm far from perfect when making these predictions, but I back up every prediction I make with stats or other things to make my point semi-valid. Here are my predictions for the upcoming season, featuring my predictions for the standings in each division, the playoffs, and the awards races.

Atlantic Division

1. Florida*- The defending champions didn't change much from last season, opting to stick with what won them the Stanley Cup in June. That being said, the Panthers are still primed to be a well-oiled machine that remains the favorite to win the Eastern Conference.

2. Boston*- The Bruins should've won the division last season, falling apart at the end of the season. Assuming they get Jeremy Swayman's contract under control and their new additions perform, the Bruins will be back at the top of the division.

3. Toronto*- The Core 4 remained intact this offseason, despite rampant speculation that Mitch Marner could be traded. While owning terrific top-end talent, their depth in every facet relative to the rest of the front-runners keeps them behind Florida and Boston for now.

4. Tampa Bay*- If their core of Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy remains healthy, this team will always have a shot. Replacing Steven Stamkos with Jake Guentzel might prove fruitful, but they lack the depth at the bottom of their lineup to make me feel like they'll finish in the Top 3.

5. Detroit*- It'll likely be down to the wire, but I believe the Red Wings will get over the hump this time. They came so close last season, falling just short despite the late-season heroics of Lucas Raymond and their other stars.

6. Buffalo- Outside of Sabres fans, I'm not sure anyone is rooting for the Sabres to make the playoffs more than I am. They have all of the potential to prove me wrong, but I'm anticipating another year of trial and error before they finally break the curse and get back to the postseason.

7. Ottawa- Of my picks for the Eastern Conference, this has the largest potential to blow up in my face. Bringing in a former Vezina winner might be exactly what the Senators need to get them in the hunt, though I think they're still a piece or two short from doing so.

8. Montreal- Injuries and inconsistency in the net have plagued the Canadiens since Price went down with an injury after their incredible run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021. Patrik Laine is an interesting addition to this group, but it's likely to be another year at the bottom for Montreal.

Metropolitan Division

1. New York (R)*- The reigning President's Trophy winners look just as daunting on paper as they have been the last several seasons. In what's shaping up to be a three-team race for the division title, the Rangers boast the most complete offense and the best goalie in the division. 

2. Carolina*- Losing all of the pieces they lost is going to be big, but not impossible for the Hurricanes to overcome. The Hurricanes' defense, their underappreciated goalie duo in Kochetkov and Andersen, and an outstanding top line will be the driving forces to get them back to the playoffs this season.

3. New Jersey*- It seems like last season might've been an anomaly for an incredibly talented New Jersey team that dealt with a lot of big injuries. With one of the most improved rosters in the conference, the Devils should be back in the thick of it this time around.

4. New York (I)- Every season feels like the same story with the Islanders. They're sure to be a stout defensive team, led by the tandem of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, but if their offense doesn't find a way to score in bunches, I don't see them making the playoffs. 

5. Philadelphia- For the next three spots in the division, you could shuffle these three teams because there isn't much that separates one from the rest. The Flyers have an exciting group of forwards, with Matvei Michkov seen as a rookie to watch, but their goalies leave me with some concerns.

6. Pittsburgh- Sidney Crosby is likely playing the final years of his career on a team that is getting older every season. The Penguins won't commit to a rebuild until his career is done, leaving them in a state of limbo that will likely keep them out of the playoffs.

7. Washington- The story will continue to be Alex Ovechkin's chase for the all-time goals lead, sitting 41 behind Wayne Gretzky at the start of the season. Outside of that, the Capitals could sneak their way back to the postseason if their goalies perform, but I remain skeptical of them as a group.

8. Columbus- The shock of Johnny Gaudreau's passing hasn't worn off yet and will likely give the Blue Jackets something extra to fight for. They lack the established star power to stick around with the other teams in the Metropolitan Division, and their goaltending will be a completely separate issue.

Central Division

1. Colorado*- The reigning league MVP leads one of the league's most prolific offenses, while Cale Makar is going to be a Norris contender every time he steps on the ice. If Alexandar Georgiev can find a way to limit how many goals he allows, the Avalanche should have no problem capturing the division.

2. Dallas*- Joe Pavelski's retirement should open the door for some of the Stars' talented prospects to get good looks. They'll miss Pavelski's veteran presence, though another trip to the playoffs feels like a virtual lock for the Stars this season. 

3. Nashville*- Along with the Devils, the Predators have a case for the most improved team this offseason. The additions of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei coupled with an already talented roster should help the Predators make the jump into the Top 3.

4. Winnipeg*- It hasn't been a fun offseason for Winnipeg with the Rutger McGroarty saga and ongoing issues with Cole Perfetti's next deal. With the reigning Vezina winner in the net and a talented roster surrounding him, they still feel like solid bets to make the playoffs. 

5. St. Louis- The Blues are stuck behind four strong teams in their division and will need to hope that the Pacific Division has a down season to allow them into the dance. They have the top-end forwards to get it done, as long as Jordan Binnington holds up his end of the deal, too.

6. Minnesota- Kirill Kaprizov can be penciled in for at least 40 goals, Matt Boldy will continue to fly under the radar, and Brock Faber is going to establish himself as a top-end defenseman. Outside of them, I'm not sure I have much trust in the Wild to get back to the playoffs. 

7. Utah- It's a new era of hockey as the Arizona Coyotes move to Salt Lake City. The only problem is the same team will be moving there too, meaning it'll be a lot of the same for the unnamed group, though the addition of Mikhail Sergachev brings a playoff-tested defender into the group.

8. Chicago- The Blackhawks are continuing to build around Connor Bedard, bringing in Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen to add some wing support. The rebuild is getting closer to its completion, with another two or three years before the Blackhawks are officially back.

Pacific Division

1. Edmonton*- The big news of the offseason in Edmonton was Leon Draisaitl's extension, locking him up for eight years. The rest of the cast looks largely the same and the addition of Jeff Skinner might allow him to finally see postseason hockey for the first time in his career.

2. Vegas*- Health will be the biggest concern for Vegas, especially guys like Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. With the distance between the rest of the division feeling razor thin, Vegas will need to rely on its outstanding defensive core to fight off the rest of the Pacific.

3. Vancouver*- The only reason I don't have the Canucks in second is Thatcher Demko's knee injury. I really like Vancouver's offense and the top pair on defense rivals any of the best pairings in the NHL but concerns in the net will keep them without home ice in April. 

4. Los Angeles*- Quinton Byfield finally broke out in his third full season in the league, giving the Kings another reliable forward. They lack the star power that the teams in front of them have but should still be in the thick of the hunt at the end of the season.

5. Seattle- The Kraken were aggressive this offseason, signing Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour to big contracts during free agency. The thing to watch in Seattle is whether Shane Wright is finally ready to join the team full-time after spending most of his time in the AHL.

6. Calgary- There is still plenty of talent on this roster, but trading Jacob Markstrom seemed to signal that the Flames are ready to build things back up. This should allow Dustin Wolf to finally take over in the net, though he might not be getting a lot of help around him.

7. San Jose- I might be crazy for thinking the Sharks might overachieve a little this season, but I've really liked their offseason. With a roster loaded with young difference makers, the Sharks could sneak their way out of the cellar to finish seventh.

8. Anaheim- It should speak volumes that I have the Sharks ahead of the Ducks in the standings this season. I would expect John Gibson and Frank Vatrano to be on new teams by the end of the season, with the Ducks fully embracing the young movement that is about to fly through.

Playoffs

1st Round

(A1) Florida over (WC1) Tampa Bay in 5

(A2) Boston over (A3) Toronto in 7

(M1) New York over (WC2) Detroit in 5

(M2) Carolina over (M3) New Jersey in 6

(C1) Colorado over (WC1) Winnipeg in 6

(C3) Nashville over (C2) Dallas in 6

(P1) Edmonton over (WC2) Los Angeles in 5

(P3) Vancouver over (P2) Vegas in 7

2nd Round

Florida over Boston in 6

Carolina over New York in 7

Colorado over Nashville in 6

Edmonton over Vancouver in 5

Conference Finals

Florida over Carolina in 7

Edmonton over Colorado in 7

Stanley Cup Final

Edmonton over Florida in 7

Awards

Jack Adams- Kris Knoblauch (EDM) over Andrew Brunette (NSH) & Derek Lalonde (DET)

Selke- Aleksander Barkov (FLA) over Anze Kopitar (LAK) & Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN)

Rocket- Auston Matthews (TOR) over Leon Draisaitl (EDM) & David Pastrnak (BOS)

Calder- Matvei Michkov (PHI) over Macklin Celebrini (SJ) & Bradly Nadeau (CAR)

Norris- Roman Josi (NSH) over Cale Makar (COL) & Victor Hedman (TBL)

Vezina- Igor Shesterkin (NYR) over Jeremy Swayman (BOS) & Jacob Markstrom (NJD)

Hart- Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over Auston Matthews (TOR) & Nikita Kucherov (TBL)