Re-Evaluating Where the NHL Season Stands at the All-Star Break

While the All-Star Break takes place after the halfway point for all 32 teams, we can now officially say we've hit the halfway point in the season. This week off from regularly scheduled action allows me to look at just how wrong I was about everything at the start of the season. Spoiler alert, I was very wrong about a lot of stuff. Along with my reflection, I make new predictions based on what we know right now in an attempt to redeem myself once the season comes to an end. 

Atlantic Preseason Prediction

1. Toronto*

2. Tampa Bay*

3. Buffalo*

4. Boston*

5. Florida

6. Ottawa

7. Detroit

8. Montreal

Just when you think the Bruins are going to fall off, they continue to be a juggernaut. They're the top team in the Eastern Conference at the break with 71 points. Even more egregious was my omission of the Florida Panthers from the playoffs to begin the season. The defending conference champions have been strong, led by Sergei Bobrovsky's continued dominance in the net. I had Detroit in 7th during the preseason, but I also said their season could either go really well or disastrously. Clearly, it was the former because they're in a Wild Card spot. It's abundantly clear that I was way too high on the Buffalo Sabres. Yet again, I've overestimated their readiness to make a move and become playoff contenders. Montreal has been better than I expected, though not ready to be competitive. Toronto and Tampa Bay are locked in a tight race with Detroit to finish 3rd in the division. They aren't likely to overtake Boston or Florida, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. 

Updated Prediction

1. Boston*

2. Florida*

3. Toronto*

4. Tampa Bay*

5. Detroit*

6. Buffalo

7. Ottawa

8. Montreal

I don't expect many changes from how things are currently in the Atlantic Division. Boston and Florida are playing like frontrunners in the Eastern Conference, holding a sizeable gap over the rest of the division. The real question is how 3-5 will turn out. I think there's an edge in skill for Toronto and Tampa Bay, so I'm comfortable with Detroit in 5th. Toronto and Tampa Bay will be fighting to start the playoffs in Florida, New York, or Raleigh, depending on who wins the Metropolitan Division. Toronto has games in hand over the Bolts, which should help them. Tampa has the edge in goaltending and depth scoring, but I'm going to risk it with the Leafs. The bottom of the division will be tight, too. I think Ottawa will turn it around a little, allowing them to jump over Montreal to stay out of the basement.

Metropolitan Preseason Prediction

1. Carolina*

2. New Jersey*

3. New York (R)*

4. Pittsburgh*

5. New York (I)

6. Washington

7. Columbus

8. Philadelphia

As right as the Metropolitan Division is right now, the only bad pick I made in the preseason was the Flyers finishing in last. They're currently in 3rd behind the Rangers and Hurricanes. I thought they'd tank, yet they're in the thick of the race. New York has been at the top of the Metro for most of the season, but Carolina is making a push for their fourth straight division crown after a rough start. The Devils haven't quite put it all together, with injuries and goaltending troubles preventing them from being as competitive. The Islanders, Penguins, Devils, and Capitals are all separated by one point but are all six or seven points out of the Wild Card race at the moment. Alex Ovechkin hasn't been able to find his scoring touch, while Sidney Crosby is playing at as high a level as he ever has. The Blue Jackets are the clear bottom-feeder in the division as the only team below .500 at the break. 

Updated Prediction

1. New York (R)*

2. Carolina*

3. New Jersey*

4. Pittsburgh

5. Philadelphia

6. New York (I)

7. Washington

8. Columbus

As much as this hurts me as a Hurricanes fan, I'm taking the Rangers to edge the Canes for the division. I think both teams are comparable in many ways, with both sides showcasing incredible depth among their skaters. There are two big reasons why I'm taking the Rangers. First, I don't think Igor Shesterkin will continue to be as bad as he has been. Second, the Rangers are more likely to take a risk at the trade deadline. The Canes are playing so much better than at the beginning of the season. Still, goaltending will continue to be a question until Pyotr Kochetkov or Antti Raanta takes complete control. The other big change is New Jersey jumping to 3rd, while Philadelphia falls out of the playoffs. Real-world events hamper me from sticking with the Flyers. I think it'll come down to the Penguins and the Devils, but the Devils' skill makes me think they'll get the job done. The Islanders could sneak in, though they can't seem to win a game that goes beyond regulation. Washington still has a fighting chance, but they're the team I trust the least.

Central Preseason Prediction

1. Dallas*

2. Colorado*

3. Winnipeg*

4. Minnesota*

5. Nashville

6. St. Louis

7. Chicago

8. Arizona

I've been nearly spot-on with my picks at the top of the division, outside of Dallas and Colorado being switched. The Avalanche hold a one-point lead over the Stars, but the Jets have the best points percentage among the three teams. They have two games in hand on both Colorado and Dallas. Otherwise, the rest of the division is all over the place. Arizona has outperformed my expectations, though they've fallen off a little in recent weeks. Minnesota has underperformed, though Brock Faber has turned into a top-end defenseman in his first season. St. Louis and Nashville are fighting for a Wild Card spot. Chicago has been about as bad as we all expected, though Connor Bedard has been everything we hoped he'd be. His recent injury has put a damper on what looked to be a surefire Calder campaign. 

Updated Prediction

1. Colorado*

2. Winnipeg*

3. Dallas*

4. Nashville*

5. St. Louis

6. Minnesota

7. Arizona

8. Chicago

I'm expecting the status quo to remain in place for the top of the Central Division. The Avalanche, Stars, and Jets have shown that they are by far the best teams in the division. Barring a fourth team going on a run, there shouldn't be any other challengers. I'm picking the Avalanche to emerge from the group as the division winner because of how amazing their top-end players have been this season. Nathan MacKinnon is in the running for the Hart and Art Ross, and Mikko Rantanen is his right-hand man. I've given the Jets over the Stars for 2nd because of Connor Hellebuyck. I think he's the frontrunner for the Vezina and will help provide an advantage for them. Dallas could easily finish ahead of Winnipeg if Jake Oettinger goes on a hot streak. For the Wild Card spot, the Predators and Blues are going to battle it out. I think Juuse Saros is better than Jordan Binnington, and the Predators' offense has better finishers, making them my pick. I think Minnesota and Arizona will start moving in different directions while Chicago brings up the rear. 

Pacific Preseason Prediction

1. Edmonton*

2. Vegas*

3. Seattle*

4. Los Angeles*

5. Vancouver

6. Calgary

7. Anaheim

8. San Jose

At Christmas, we were ready to write off the Edmonton Oilers. Now, they're on a 16-game win streak with a chance to break the all-time record. It also makes me feel a little better about picking them to win the division, though I've lost hope of that happening. Vancouver has shocked the world, leading the Western Conference in points at the All-Star Break. They've been out of this world all season. Vegas started strong, but they haven't looked as strong recently. They're 2nd in the division for now, but the Oilers aren't far behind. The Kings are another team that has fallen off hard going into the break. They're in the first Wild Card spot, but wins haven't been coming as quickly as they were to begin the season. I overshot the Kraken being in the Top 3 as they're currently 5th, though Joey Daccord has been a major improvement over their other goalies. Calgary isn't out of the Wild Card race yet, though they're shaping up to be sellers at the deadline. The Ducks and Sharks have been abysmal, joining Chicago in the race for Macklin Celebrini. 

Updated Prediction

1. Vancouver*

2. Edmonton*

3. Vegas*

4. Los Angeles*

5. Seattle

6. Calgary

7. Anaheim

8. San Jose

I don't think anyone is going to challenge the Canucks for the division, especially with how aggressive they're going to be. The addition of Elias Lindholm makes Vancouver even better. The more interesting races are going to be behind them. The Oilers are starting to look like the team we expected them to be. This places immense pressure on the Golden Knights to maintain their hold on 2nd place. I think this new-look Oilers team is going to be dangerous down the stretch, though I worry a little about how many games they have left to play. I'm also concerned about the Kings' ability to stay in the Wild Card race. Their recent struggles won't deter me from picking them to make the playoffs, but they need to show they're still a team to be reckoned with. Seattle is good, but I don't think they have the secondary scoring or consistent enough play to return to the playoffs. Calgary has already sold one big piece, making me think there are more dominos to fall. Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin could be on their way out, too. Anaheim and San Jose will fight for the bottom spot until the end, but I think San Jose will be primed to win the 1st pick. 

New Playoff Predictions

1st Round

(A1) Boston vs. (WC2) Detroit- Boston 4-1

(A2) Florida vs. (A3) Toronto- Florida 4-2

(M1) New York vs. (WC1) Tampa Bay- New York 4-3

(M2) Carolina vs. (M3) New Jersey- Carolina 4-2

(C1) Colorado vs. (WC1) Los Angeles- Colorado 4-2

(C2) Winnipeg vs. (C3) Dallas- Winnipeg 4-3

(P1) Vancouver vs. (WC2) Nashville- Vancouver 4-1

(P2) Edmonton vs. (P3) Vegas- Vegas 4-3

2nd Round

(A1) Boston vs. (A2) Florida- Boston 4-2

(M1) New York vs. (M2) Carolina- New York 4-3

(C1) Colorado vs. (C2) Winnipeg- Colorado 4-2

(P1) Vancouver vs. (V3) Vegas- Vancouver 4-3

Conference Finals

(A1) Boston vs. (M1) New York- Boston 4-2

(C1) Colorado vs. (P1) Vancouver- Vancouver 4-3

Stanley Cup Final

(A1) Boston vs. (P1) Vancouver

If Boston and Vancouver meet in the Stanley Cup Final again, the world might collapse in on itself. Their series in 2011 is one of the most talked about series in league history, mostly for the resulting riots in Vancouver when Boston won Game 7. Recently, the two best teams in the league haven't made it all the way to the end. However, I'd be the fool to think it'll happen this year. 

As for the winner, I am tempted to pick the Canucks. Their offense has been explosive, their defense has been solid, and their goaltending has been among the best in the league. Boston has been just as good. These are easily the two best teams in the league right now, making this a Goliath vs. Goliath matchup. I'm a little crazy, so let's see Canada break its Stanley Cup drought. Vancouver 4-3 (Conn Smythe- Elias Pettersson)

New Award Predictions

Jack Adams

Preseason- Don Granato (BUF)

New- Rick Tocchet (VAN)

With my expectations of the Sabres not coming to fruition, this feels like a no-brainer. Vancouver has been the best team in the Western Conference for much of the season after missing the playoffs the last few seasons. Rick Tocchet has turned this team around, making him the most likely candidate to be named the Coach of the Year. 

Rocket

Preseason- Auston Matthews (TOR)

New- Auston Matthews (TOR)

Of my preseason picks, this is the only one that isn't going to change. Auston Matthews has already hit 40 goals this season, with 70 goals not out of the picture. Sam Reinhart is just three goals behind him, and there are several others within close proximity, but Matthews is clearly the frontrunner to win the Rocket again. 

Selke

Preseason- Anze Kopitar (LAK)

New- Aleksander Barkov (FLA)

I think Anze Kopitar was a solid pick to win, and he still could, but I'm changing my mind and turning to Aleksander Barkov. The Selke has turned into a two-way player award, with points seeming to matter a lot more. Barkov is barely beating Kopitar in that regard, and the Panthers are better positioned compared to the Kings.

Calder

Preseason- Connor Bedard (CHI)

New- Brock Faber (MIN)

Before Connor Bedard got hurt, he was going to be my pick to win it. Since he's gotten hurt, Brock Faber has started to make a strong case. It's a shame, too, because Bedard has been everything we wanted him to be. One unfortunate injury is going to take away his chance to win an award he was destined to win. It opens the door for someone else to win it, and Faber is filling that void. 

Norris

Preseason- Adam Fox (NYR)

New- Quinn Hughes (VAN)

This feels like a two-player race between Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. Hughes enters the All-Star Break with over 60 points, while Makar is at 58. I think as long as Hughes is able to keep his points lead over Makar and the Canucks outperform the Avalanche after the break, this should be Hughes' award to lose. I think this will end up being the closest race to watch. 

Vezina

Preseason- Jake Oettinger (DAL)

New- Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)

There hasn't been a better goalie in the league this season than Connor Hellebuyck. He's second in GAA and third in both wins and save percentage thus far as the Jets continue to look like a major threat. There are some other goalies under consideration, like Jeremy Swayman and Thatcher Demko, but Hellebuyck is in control right now. 

Hart

Preseason- Auston Matthews (TOR)

New- Nathan MacKinnon (COL)

This is another battle that could come down to the wire. I think Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon are the leaders at the break for the award. If Auston Matthews had more assists, he'd be in consideration, but there is a lot of ground for him to make up, even if he hits 70 goals. I think the winner of the Art Ross is going to win the Hart, and I think MacKinnon is that guy.