2023-24 NHL Preview

Late September to mid-June is the best time of the year because it means there is hockey on television. As training camp begins, it's time to look at my often incorrect predictions. To give you an idea of how wrong I usually am, here are some of the big predictions from last season that were painfully wrong.

• I picked Boston, New Jersey, Winnipeg, and Seattle to finish 6th in their respective divisions. All four of them made the playoffs. 
• In their place, I predicted Ottawa, St. Louis, Vancouver, and Calgary to all make the playoffs, while the eventual Stanley Cup Champions were outside of the playoffs. 
• My Stanley Cup Final was Carolina vs. Colorado. While Carolina made it to the ECF, Colorado was eliminated in the 1st Round. 
• I picked Jonathan Quick to be a Vezina finalist.

I'm sure there are many other egregious predictions from last season, but there were some of my favorites. However, I'm still going to make predictions because it's fun, and I like to. Instead of providing a ton of backstory from last season and the offseason, I'm going to keep it simple. I've provided my predictions for each division, the postseason, and the major award races. Will I be right about any of it? Who knows. It'll be fun to look back at this in a few months to see just how right or wrong I was. 

Standings Predictions (*=Playoff Team)

Atlantic

1. Toronto*- Since the league realigned the divisions in 2013, Toronto has never won the Atlantic. Their only division crown in this century came when they won the all-Canadian division in 2021. With the additions they made this offseason, they are the team to beat. There's no doubt this team can score goals, and they'll likely be at the top of the league in that category this season. This could be a Leafs team stronger than we've ever seen. 

2. Tampa Bay*- The Lightning regressed last season, failing to top 100 points and getting knocked out in the 1st Round by the Maple Leafs. Losing Alex Killorn and Ross Colton could be, but there are still too many superstars on this team for them to not be good. Their top-end talent manages to mask any of their shortcomings. I'm concerned about Andrei Vasilevskiy's workload because there isn't a strong backup option in Tampa. 

3. Buffalo*- Call me crazy, but I'm going all-in on the Buffalo Sabres this season. The biggest red flag is that Devon Levi has played seven games in the NHL, and he might not be the Opening Night starter, but I'm riding with him. The offense will be more potent, and while their defense behind Rasmus Dahlin could be lacking, they'll be fine. Of my picks in the Eastern Conference, this is likely my riskiest one. The margin between 3-6 in this division is razor-thin, so it's also realistic to see the Sabres outside the playoffs to extend their drought. 

4. Boston*- After putting up historic numbers during the regular season, the offseason wasn't kind to the Bruins. They lost their top two centers and several other pieces. It was a net loss for the Bruins. I underestimated them last season, picking them to miss the postseason. I'm not going to do that this time. I think they'll squeak into the postseason as a Wild Card. They have one of the best goalie duos in the league, which could help them steal some games. I'm hesitant with this team, but I'm sure they'll be a nuisance for 82 games. 

5. Florida- Not picking the reigning conference champions to make the playoffs is a bold move, especially with a superstar like Matthew Tkachuk leading the team. Florida caught lightning in a bottle at the right time. It's easy to forget they barely made the playoffs last season. The margin for error is razor-thin in the Eastern Conference. The status of Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad to begin the season is unknown, adding an extra layer of concern for the Panthers. 

6. Ottawa- Stability in the net will be enormous for the Senators in this tough division. Joonas Korpisalo has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but I've yet to see him play consistently enough to feel comfortable. Their offensive weapons are solid, and with an entire season of Jakub Chychrun, their defense will be good too. The only reason I have them this low is because of the firepower every team in front of them possesses. I'm not sure they can keep up with the big dogs. 

7. Detroit- The Red Wings are sneaky because this could either go well or blow up spectacularly. The addition of Alex DeBrincat is massive for this offense, and Jeff Petry could still contribute on defense with all their new faces. I don't wholly trust Ville Husso as the team's starter. Detroit feels like they are still a year away from being in contention for the playoffs, with several other teams to jump over that are already very good. 

8. Montreal- The health of the Canadiens has been an issue for a few years. They have good young players that are starting to become household names. Cole Caufield returning to his goal-scoring form could help them win a few games, but they won't do anything unless their goaltending is better. They've had a lousy duo for the last two years, and they haven't done anything to improve it. The forecast isn't looking good for Montreal this season. 

Metropolitan

1. Carolina*- The battle for the top of the division is going to be another tight one between the Canes and the Devils. The Canes have the best defense in the league, with a goalie tandem that has been in the top two for the last two seasons. They'll get Andrei Svechnikov back after he missed the end of the season with an injury. They have been among the best teams in the regular season for five years. It's time to turn that success during the first 82 games into 16 wins in the postseason. 

2. New Jersey*- The Devils shocked many people with their sudden emergence as a Stanley Cup contender. With Luke Hughes joining the group for an entire season and a loaded group on offense, the Devils could easily jump the Canes and win the division. Their goaltending does concern me a little, especially after how they looked in the 2nd Round against Carolina. Make no mistake, this will be an exciting team to watch this season. 

3. New York (R)*- The Metropolitan is another division where there is only a little separating teams 3-6. What separates the Rangers from the rest of the pack are Igor Shesterkin and their star-studded offense. Artemi Panarin is one of the premier playmakers in the league. Chris Kreider has been putting up an insane number of goals. Mika Zibanejad has turned into a strong finisher. Shesterkin can steal games on the nights the Rangers don't play well. They ran out of gas against New Jersey in the 1st Round but will be ready for revenge when the season starts.  

4. Pittsburgh*- With all the work the Penguins did this offseason, anything short of the playoffs will be a major disappointment. Bringing in Erik Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Ryan Graves and re-signing Tristan Jarry meant a lot of money was spent to make this a championship-caliber team. The window is closing rapidly on Sidney Crosby and the Penguins, so there might be a year or two left before it's time to give up hope. 

5. New York (I)- The Islanders are a hard team to evaluate. They are a staunch defensive team with one of the best goalies in the league. They also have solid forwards that are capable of scoring in bunches. The problem is they often struggle to score a lot of goals. The Islanders have ridden the back of Ilya Sorokin for a few years without giving him much help. They may run into the same problem this season as the rest of the division continues to pass them by. 

6. Washington- Much of the focus on Washington this season will be Alex Ovechkin's quest to catch Wayne Gretzky's goal-scoring record. He isn't going to break it this season, but he could put a good dent in it with a strong season. The Capitals are another team that I'm not sure about. Last season was a disappointment, and this season could be the same. There are plenty of great players in the nation's capital, but I can't say with much confidence they've improved more than the rest of the teams in the division. 

7. Columbus- I did like the effort the Blue Jackets put into making sure they added some strong pieces to support Johnny Gaudreau. They are still not ready to compete for a playoff spot, but this will gauge how far they might be from doing so. Adam Fantilli will be a fun rookie to watch as a potential cornerstone of the franchise. Goaltending will be the biggest issue the team faces. Elvis Merzlikins is good, but he hasn't been living up to the big contract he earned. 

8. Philadelphia- The Flyers are in the middle of a complete rebuild, so it's time to tank as hard as they can. There are plenty of young players who are going to get ice time to develop and be big parts of the franchise moving forward. The big news is that the team didn't opt to move Carter Hart, making it seem like he's going to be the goalie moving forward. This could be a long season for Philly, so strap in Flyers fans. 

Central

1. Dallas*- There's no reason why the Stars shouldn't be the favorite to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. On paper, I love this team. On the ice, I love this team even more. They are going to be a problem every night. Their offense is spectacular. Their goaltending will be top-notch. Even their defense, their weakest unit, is still a force. After making the conference finals last season, the expectations will be higher.  

2. Colorado*- The loss of Gabriel Landeskog for the season will be a problem for Colorado. He is a leader in the locker room and provides a lot on offense with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Those two and Cale Makar will be dynamite in any situation, so I don't feel bad about Colorado losing their captain. Alexander Georgiev relieved some of my issues last season, even after losing in the 1st Round. They'll make it close with Dallas but still hold home ice for the 1st Round. 

3. Winnipeg*- The Jets cashed in when they traded Pierre-Luc Dubois to Los Angeles. I love their return because it'll make them stronger on offense. Winnipeg also has one of the best goalies in the league after opting to keep Connor Hellebuyck, despite being in the last year of his contract. Their defense has some strong players, too, making them a more complete team than the teams under them in the division. The Jets could be a sneaky team to make a run. 

4. Minnesota*- I almost left the Wild out of the playoffs. The race between them and the Predators was a close one. The difference, and the reason I have Minnesota in the playoffs, is their offense. The Wild have a more potent attack than Nashville, led by Kirill Kaprizov. Their biggest X-factor will be goaltending. Filip Gustavsson was good last season and performed well in the postseason, despite the series loss. While he isn't better than Juuse Saros, he could be the difference-maker for this team. 

5. Nashville- As long as Juuse Saros is their goalie, the Predators will have a shot at the postseason. Even after being active at the deadline last season, the rookies almost carried Nashville to the playoffs. They'll get an entire season to prove they can do it, and I think they could sneak in if Minnesota or Winnipeg doesn't perform to their potential. For now, I'll have them just outside of the playoffs with a chance to surprise many fans. 

6. St. Louis- Few players in the league make waves like Jordan Binnington. His last two seasons have been rough, with last season being his worst. If he's back in his Stanley Cup-winning form, the Blues are a playoff team. They have weapons on offense to make noise, and their defense can contribute a lot. I don't think they'll be able to jump the other teams in the division, making a postseason run unlikely. St. Louis is in a tough spot. 

7. Chicago- Even if they aren't good this season, everyone will be watching the Blackhawks. Rookie sensation Connor Bedard will be must-see TV. They did an excellent job of getting some experienced players to help him, but they'll be in the cellar for another year or two. The good news is the front office is aware of this and shouldn't be in a rush because their time will come. 

8. Arizona- I was pulling for the Coyotes to win the lottery for Connor Bedard. Now that they've missed out on him, the futility will continue. No one will be talking about Arizona until the trade deadline rolls around. Seeing who on their team could impact a postseason race will be the only reason to watch them this season because it could be very bad. 

Pacific

1. Edmonton*- It's crazy that the Oilers haven't won a division crown since the mid-80s, especially with how good Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are. They've finished 2nd in the division that four years. They were two points behind Vegas last season for the division. This season, they will finally get the job done if Stuart Skinner is as good as he was a year ago. We know the Oilers will be able to score goals. Keeping pucks out of their net will determine how far they go. 

2. Vegas*- The defending champs didn't do much to improve in the offseason. In fact, losing Reilly Smith could indicate they may have gotten slightly worse. They're putting a lot of trust in Adin Hill to be the same goalie he was during the postseason. Vegas always seems to be a team with injury questions too. If they're a fully healthy team for most of the season, they could win the division and be serious contenders to repeat as Stanley Cup champions.  

3. Seattle*- The Kraken took significant steps in their second season, earning a Wild Card spot and winning a series. In Year 3, it's time for them to prove that last season wasn't a fluke. They have a lot of young players, led by reigning Calder winner Matty Beniers. He must improve on this performance and lead the team to a top-three finish. People aren't going to sleep on Seattle anymore after what they did last season.

4. Los Angeles*- I wasn't a fan of the Kings' offseason. While Pierre-Luc Dubois is a great player, they gave up too much to get him. They also traded away two solid defensemen, Sean Durzi and Sean Walker. I'm also very skeptical of their goalie duo of Pheonix Copley and Cam Talbot. They have an excellent group of forwards and a few defensemen that can help drive play. They should be a playoff team, but it won't be easy. 

5. Vancouver- No one knows what the Canucks are. I'm not sure the Canucks even know what they are. They have some great weapons on offense, and Thatcher Demko is a good goalie despite lackluster numbers. Their defense isn't great and will continue to be a big reason they won't make the playoffs, but there are still decent players back there. It feels like they are close. They just don't get the performances they need during crunch time. 

6. Calgary- The Flames are another team that is either going to quickly figure it out or turn into a dumpster fire before selling all of their pending UFAs. Many players have one foot out the door already. Last season was a huge disappointment, but they brought it upon themselves. They had a terrible offseason that turned into a terrible regular season. I don't have much reason for optimism, though that could change with a good start. 

7. Anaheim- The move to pass on Adam Fantilli has the potential to be a major blunder if he turns in a fantastic rookie season. It wouldn't change much about how bad the Ducks are, but it could seriously kill their hope. Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas will bring a winning pedigree and strong leadership to the young locker room. There is a world where I can see them taking a big step forward this season, but it doesn't seem likely. 

8. San Jose- Trading Erik Karlsson was the right move, even after he won the Norris. However, it did establish the Sharks as the worst team in the division, with a high likelihood of being the worst team in the league this season. Their defense is likely the worst in the league, and their goalie duo of Kaapo Kahkonen and Mackenzie Blackwood might be near the bottom. Getting ready, San Jose! The first pick next season could be coming your way. 

Playoff Predictions

1st Round

(A1) Toronto v. (WC2) Boston (Toronto in 6)

(A2) Tampa Bay v. (A3) Buffalo (Tampa Bay in 7)

It's been a very long time since Toronto has beaten Boston in the postseason, with the last time coming in 1959. Boston has won the last six meetings, but Toronto is far superior to the Bruins on paper. Tampa Bay and Buffalo would be a fun series to watch. Buffalo's lack of experience is the only thing keeping me from picking them to advance. 

(M1) Carolina v. (WC1) Pittsburgh (Carolina in 6)

(M2) New Jersey v. (M3) New York (R) (New Jersey in 7)

Carolina has been a strong 1st Round team over the last five years, winning four times out of five, and the only time they didn't was after winning their Qualifying Round in 2020. I see this being similar to their series with the Islanders in 2023. Speaking of last year's playoffs, the Rangers and Devils renewed their postseason rivalry in a spirited seven-game affair. The Devils are just as good this season and should be able to get it done again. 

(C1) Dallas v. (WC2) Minnesota (Dallas in 5)

(C2) Colorado v. (C3) Winnipeg (Colorado in 6)

Keeping steady with the better seeds advancing, Dallas will get a rematch with Minnesota from last year's 1st Round. Dallas is loaded top-to-bottom, so I'm thinking this could be the most lopsided series of the Round. Colorado and Winnipeg are closer, and while the Jets have the edge in goaltending, the Avalanche are the better team all-around. I used the same logic last season, and Seattle showed Colorado the door. 

(P1) Edmonton v. (WC1) Los Angeles (Edmonton in 6)

(P2) Vegas v. (P3) Seattle (Vegas in 6)

The Oilers and Kings can't seem to escape each other, as I have them playing in the 1st Round for the third straight season. Edmonton has won the last two meetings, and I think they'll do it again this year. Vegas and Seattle will meet in the Winter Classic this season, but I'd like to see the two newest franchises battle in the postseason. Seattle has a knack for knocking out defending champs, so Vegas needs to be careful. 

2nd Round

(A1) Toronto v. (A2) Tampa Bay (Toronto in 6)

(M1) Carolina v. (M2) New Jersey (Carolina in 7)

It was against the Lightning that Toronto exercised its demons, beating them in the 1st Round last season to break their postseason losing streak. I have them meeting in the 2nd Round this time, but the result remains the same. Historically, Carolina and New Jersey don't play in many tight series in the postseason. Outside of their seven-game series in 2009, they tend to be lopsided, but this series should be different. 

(C1) Dallas v. (C2) Colorado (Dallas in 7)

(P1) Edmonton v. (P2) Vegas (Vegas in 6)

Dallas and Colorado are the two best teams in the West, so meeting in the 2nd Round is a bit of a letdown, but that doesn't take away from how fun it could be. This feels like it'll come down to which goalie can get the stop at the end of the series. Should the defending champs survive the 1st Round, Edmonton wouldn't be a fun team to face. However, they took care of them in six games last season, and I'm still not sold on Edmonton's goalies. 

Conference Finals

(A1) Toronto v. (M1) Carolina (Carolina in 7)

Call me crazy, but I have Toronto and Carolina advancing in a rematch of the 2002 Eastern Conference Final. The Hurricanes got the better of the Maple Leafs in that series, winning in six games to advance to their first Stanley Cup Final. 22 years later, I have them mixing it up again. It feels like weird things happen when these two teams play. Between the wild 8-6 win for Toronto on Next Gen Day, the David Ayres Game a few months later, and the numerous high-scoring games we've seen in recent seasons, this has the makings of a great battle. While Toronto may have the edge in the superstar department, Carolina has an experience advantage. That, paired with superior defense and goaltending, should help the Hurricanes end their struggles in conference finals, and earn them a spot in their third Stanley Cup Final. 

(C1) Dallas v. (P2) Vegas (Dallas in 6)

Keeping with the theme of rematches, my pick for the Western Conference Final is a rehashing of last season's series between the Stars and Golden Knights. Vegas handled business against Dallas, jumping out to a 3-0 series lead before eventually closing it out in six games en route to a Stanley Cup victory. Adin Hill played a big part in the series win, pitching two shutouts, and almost every player that dressed for Vegas finished with at least two points. It's a new season, so the slate is wiped clean. Dallas remains one of the most dynamic teams in the league, sporting stars at all three levels. Jake Oettinger wasn't good against Vegas in the 2023 Western Conference Final. In 2024, he'll have his chance at redemption, leading Dallas to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in five seasons. 

Stanley Cup Final

(M1) Carolina v. (C1) Dallas (Carolina in 7)

It's no secret that I'm a Hurricanes fan, but this is not a pick based on emotions. Genuinely, I believe this is the year the Hurricanes win their second Stanley Cup. I've shied away from picking them to win it in the past. This season feels different. The Canes and Stars always play energetic and tight games, as evidenced by their two meetings going to overtime this season. Dallas is one of the most exciting teams to watch on offense, and the Canes are one of the stingiest defenses in the league. It's a clash of styles. I think home ice will play a big part in this because if Game 7 is in Raleigh, I have no doubt the Caniacs will blow the roof off PNC Arena. It was that way in 2006. It could happen again in 2024. 

Award Predictions

Jack Adams- Don Granato (BUF) over Rod Brind'Amour (CAR) & Dave Hakstol (SEA)

Predicting who wins the Jack Adams is like pulling a random name out of a hat and deeming them to be the winner. The criteria for each voter is different. I've stated that I tend to pick coaches of the team with the best story. If Buffalo finally breaks their drought this season, Don Granato should win the award, as should any coach whose team overachieves. 

Rocket- Auston Matthews (TOR) over Leon Draisaitl (EDM) & David Pastrnak (BOS)

Two seasons removed from 60 goals and his first Hart win, Auston Matthews will be right back in the thick of it. He has one of the most pure shots in the league and plays with one of the best passers in the world. I see no reason why he can't flirt with 60 goals again. 

Selke- Anze Kopitar (LAK) over Mitch Marner (TOR) & Jordan Staal (CAR)

The retirement of six-time winner Patrice Bergeron makes this one wide open for the 2023-24 season. Much like with the Jack Adams Award, there isn't much method to the madness. A lot of this comes down to the eye test. Anze Kopitar is a two-time winner and has been a finalist four times. That's enough reason to think he'll be back in the fold this season. 

Calder- Connor Bedard (CHI) over Adam Fantilli (CBJ) & Devon Levi (BUF)

There are a dozen players who could garner serious consideration to win this award, but I've taken the safe route by selecting Connor Bedard. The hype surrounding his debut is unreal, with many people thinking he'll be as good as advertised. If his preseason debut was any indication, they could be right. It feels like a no-brainer to pick Bedard, which is why I'd really like to see a shocker here. 

Norris- Adam Fox (NYR) over Cale Makar (COL) & Miro Heiskanen (DAL)

It pains me to speak highly of a New York Ranger, but he was once a prospect of the Hurricanes. Adam Fox is the real deal, having won the Norris once already in his short career. After finishing second to Erik Karlsson last season, Fox will have some stiff competition to win it again. The league has many premier defenders, so this was a tough call. 

Vezina- Jake Oettinger (DAL) over Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) & Igor Shesterkin (NYR)

There were a lot of names I considered to finish in the Top 3. It was hard to leave Juuse Saros and Ilya Sorokin off the podium. I'm going to ride the hand of the team I think will win the Western Conference this season. Jake Oettinger has been spectacular since becoming the starter in Dallas. He's poised to have his best season yet, so I'm picking him to win a very tough race for the Vezina. 

Hart- Auston Matthews (TOR) over David Pastrnak (BOS) & Jason Robertson (DAL)

Leaving Connor McDavid out of the MVP race feels like a bad take waiting to happen. What he did last season was so phenomenal that anything short of it this season will be disappointing. Instead, I'm sticking with my Rocket pick to double down and win the Hart. Auston Matthews will be a problem, assuming he stays healthy enough to do so. If anyone scores 60 goals this season, the Hart is theirs to lose.