Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round Review & Conference Final Preview

After a tough fight in the first round against the Islanders, the Canes were set to do battle with the New Jersey Devils as the two teams looked to write another chapter in a storied postseason story that began all the way back in 2001. The Devils' journey to the second round began with a seven-game series win over New York's other team, the Rangers. New Jersey boasts an array of young stars, a few former Hurricanes, and a deadline acquisition that the Canes were in on until the last minute. They also had one of the hottest goalies in the league at the time after Akira Schmid took over goaltending duties in Game 3 of the series and proceeded to shut down the Rangers four times to advance. For the fifth time, the two teams would come together in the postseason with a spot in the Eastern Conference Final on the line. 

A Quick Series Recap

Game 1- The Canes set the pace for the series as five different players find the back of the net as they cruised to a 5-1 victory, chasing Schmid from the game in the second period. 

Game 2- Not satisfied with just five goals, Carolina puts up six more, led by two from Kotkaniemi as the Canes continue to apply a stranglehold on New Jersey's stars in a 6-1 thrashing. 

Game 3- The Hughes brothers carried the load as Jack puts up four points and Luke recorded two assists in his postseason debut as New Jersey won 8-4 despite three short-handed goals from the Canes. 

Game 4- Behind a record-setting four goals in 5:20 in the second period, the Canes score six unanswered goals as three points from Martinook put the Canes on the verge of advancing. 

Game 5- Slavin and Burns each score game-tying goals in the second period and Fast ends the series with his second overtime-winner of the postseason as the Canes vanish the Devils in five games. 

The Good

1. Jordan Martinook

After a career season when he scored 34 points, Martinook was held scoreless in the first round despite playing some solid hockey. Against New Jersey, he had one of the best series in franchise history, re-writing the record books. His ten points tie him with Bates Battaglia (2002) and Cory Stillman (2006) for the most in a series. His four straight games with multiple points set a new franchise record. He tied for the team lead in goals and led the team in assists. I doubt he keeps up the pace in the conference finals but he played a major role in getting the Canes through this series as quickly as he did. 

2. The penalty kill...again

The Canes didn't have to go on the penalty kill much during this series, only having to kill 12 penalties. While they did allow two goals on those 12 attempts (83.3%), what really made them stand out was the three short-handed goals that they scored. All of them came in Game 3, their lone loss of the series, but they had more dangerous chances. Just as they did in the first round, the Canes won the battle of special teams. The penalty kill is the league's best through two rounds and will only be more important in the coming round. 

3. Frederik Andersen, minus Game 3

With Antti Raanta missing most of the series with an illness, Andersen was the man in the net for the Canes. After an excellent performance to close the first round, he carried that performance into the second round against the Devils, allowing one goal in three games and just two goals in the series-clinching game. Outside of a very bad start in Game 3, Andersen won the goalie battle and has been one of the most consistent goalies in the league, up there with Bobrovsky in this round. 

4. The scoring spreads out and the defense finally joins 

No individual player on either team scored more than three goals in the series and considering the Canes scored 24 goals, that's a bit surprising. 12 players found the back of the net in the series with Martinook, Kotkaniemi, Fast, and Necas each scoring three goals and Staal, Pesce, Jarvis, and Burns each adding two. Better yet, the defense was joining the fun. After scoring just one goal in the first round, the Canes' defense scored six times, and all six defenders recorded points, led by four each from Burns and Slavin. The entire team contributed in some way. 

5. Making some of New Jersey's stars non-factors

The Devils only scored 13 goals in the series with the Canes' defense shutting them down for pretty much the entire series. Though Jack Hughes finished with six points, he really only had one good game (4 points in Game 3). The same can be said for Timo Meier, who didn't do anything until the third game also. Outside of them and Dawson Mercer (4 points), the rest of the Devils' stars didn't do anything. Hischier, Palat, and Bratt only had two points each. Hamilton had one point. Haula, who led their team in points in the first round, didn't score at all. The defense was fantastic and never allowed the Devils to get going consistently. 

6. The power play ending the series

The struggles of the power play have been a long-standing concern for the team and the fans. In this series, the Canes matched the Devils' power play, going 2-for-12 across the five games. After scoring on the power play to open Game 2, they went scoreless for Games 3 and 4. They also didn't score on their first attempt in Game 5, but they would be responsible for sending the Canes to the next round with the winner in overtime. I'm not sure whether this goal will help them gather more momentum but I felt it was an important way to end the series since the power play has been known to suck the life out of the team at times. 

The Not-So-Good

1. Pretty much everything about Game 3

There wasn't much to hate about this series given that it ended in five games. Game 3 is the glaring exception seeing as the Canes allowed eight goals in an 8-4 loss. The defense looked terrible. The goaltending was equally terrible as neither Andersen nor Kochetkov seemed able to stop the puck. The offense wasn't able to score at 5-on-5, relying on the penalty kill to provide offense. Three of the team's four goals came while short-handed. Otherwise, Game 3 is one to flush down the toilet and completely forget about. 

Honestly, there isn't too much else about the series I didn't love. Before winning 3-2 in overtime in Game 5, the Canes won 5-1, 6-1, and 6-1, meaning they only allowed five goals in their four wins in the series. There are still plenty of things to work on. The fourth line combined for zero points in five games. That might be the only glaring issue but the amount of depth scoring from the team helped to mask it. The Canes played an excellent series and should be good to go for the conference finals. 

Eastern Conference Final Opponent- Florida Panthers

Very few people picked the Panthers to make it out of the first round against the Boston Bruins. After finishing as the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference, to predict they would be able to overcome a 3-1 series deficit by winning three straight games against the best regular-season team in NHL history would be a very bold move. Nevertheless, the Panthers won two games on the road in overtime, including Game 7, to win the series and set up a date with Toronto in the second round. Just as they'd done to finish the Boston series, Florida won both games in Toronto to open the series before winning Game 3 at home in overtime. Toronto kept the series alive in Game 4 but led by 51 saves from Sergei Bobrovsky and an overtime-winner by Nick Cousins, the Panthers have shocked the system and beaten two of the four best teams in the conference to advance to the Eastern Conference Final for the first time since 1996. Bobrovsky has been one of the best stories of the postseason through two rounds. After Alex Lyon assumed the starting role to begin the Boston series, Bobrovsky came in to start Game 4 and he hasn't relinquished the net since then. He's stolen several games for them in both series to help them advance. Hart finalist Matthew Tkachuk has been another big part of their run, leading the team with 16 points. 

Head-to-Head This Season

The Canes won two of the three meetings this season against the Panthers with all three games being decided in regulation. Carolina won the only game in Raleigh and the two teams split the two games in Sunrise. Here's a quick recap of their three meetings this season. 

November 9- Florida 3, Carolina 0- The first meeting of the season belong to Spencer Knight as he stoned the Canes for 60 minutes. Carolina threw 40 shots at him and couldn't find an answer. The Panthers took an early lead on a goal from Nick Cousins and the score remained 1-0 until midway through the third period when Aleksander Barkov scored on the power play to add some insurance. Sam Bennett scored with six seconds left into the empty net to ice the win. Antti Raanta played a solid game for the Canes, stopping 34 shots, and Brandon Montour played a hand in every goal, finishing the night with three assists. 

December 30- Carolina 4, Florida 0- The Canes returned the favor to end 2022 in Raleigh. Antti Raanta and Spencer Knight went at it again but this time it would be the Canes' netminder that would pitch a shutout. Raanta wasn't tested as much as Knight was in his shutout, only making 19 saves in the game. The Canes' power play was the other big story as they scored three times in the first two periods with Stefan Noesen, Andrei Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen finding the back of the net. Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored at even strength in the third period as the Canes dominated Florida for three periods.

April 13- Carolina 6, Florida 4- The most recent meeting was actually Game 82 for both teams with plenty on the line. The Canes needed a win to clinch the division and Florida was still fighting for a playoff spot. There wasn't much offense in the first two periods with Carolina leading 2-0 on goals by Brent Burns and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Aleksander Barkov and Ryan Lomberg scored 2:19 apart to tie the game early in the third period to tie it but the Canes responded with Burns and Jesper Fast scoring 21 seconds apart to regain their two-goal lead. Shayne Gostisbehere seemed to put the game away with an empty-net goal but the Panthers had more life in them. Anthony Duclair and Carter Verhaeghe scored 38 seconds apart to bring the Cats back within a goal. Sebastian Aho put the game away for good with another empty-net goal as the Canes clinched the division and while they did lose, the Panthers got enough help to clinch the second Wild Card spot. 

Past Postseason History

This will be the first time these two former longtime division rivals will meet in the postseason. In fact, they hadn't each played in the postseason in the same year until both qualified for the bubble in 2020. Florida lost in the Qualifying Round, missing out on any chance of meeting then. They could've met in the second round of the 2021 playoffs after finishing first and second in the Central Division but Florida lost in the first round to Tampa Bay, a fate the Canes would ultimately suffer when they faced the Lightning. Last season, the only time they could've faced each other would've been in the Eastern Conference Final but both teams lost in the second round. 

3 Things to Watch

1. Which veteran goalie continues their hot streak?

A few years ago, a goalie battle between Frederik Andersen and Sergei Bobrovsky would've been prime viewing. In 2023, it's a battle of two veteran goalies that have been at the top of their game for the last few weeks. Andersen hasn't relinquished the net for the Canes since taking over in Game 6 of the New York series and he's won five of his last six starts. Bobrovsky has been in the net since Game 4 of the Boston series and is 7-2 in nine starts, including a six-game win streak across the two series. Naturally, something is going to have to give. 

2. Can the Canes remain disciplined against a very aggressive team?

I've been very impressed with the Canes' ability to match the physicality thrown at them by the Islanders and the Devils. This Panthers team is going to be a different animal. They're one of the most penalized teams in this postseason and have a roster full of disruptors. Radko Gudas is going to be in the middle of everything. Sam Bennett will likely get a few extra shots in after the whistle. Matthew Tkachuk is not only a skilled forward but also a bit of an instigator. The Canes need to find that healthy balance of responding without taking it too far. 

3. Who will be the unsung hero for the Canes?

In the first round, it was Paul Stastny. In the second round, it was Jordan Martinook. This team gets contributions from everyone but there always seems to be that one guy that steps up when the team needs it the most. This feels like an appropriate time for someone like Jack Drury or Jalen Chatfield to play the best series of their lives to help get the Canes into the Stanley Cup Final. Because the Canes rely on their depth so much, it's hard to predict who exactly it will be. 

My Honest Thoughts

After Florida beat Toronto, the initial reaction from some "pundits" was that this was the worst-case scenario for the NHL having two small markets like Carolina and Florida fighting for a chance to go to the Stanley Cup Final. Ironically enough, most of these geniuses were fans of teams like Boston and Toronto, who lost to the Panthers. The people that think this is bad for the league are stupid. Florida is the ultimate underdog team after going from the 8-seed to the final two in the Eastern Conference. Carolina has consistently been one of the best teams in the league for the last five years and the atmosphere inside PNC Arena is one of the most electric in the league on a nightly basis. The talk is all about television ratings and while these two likely don't attract the big numbers that teams like Toronto, Boston, or New York, it doesn't mean the hockey will be any less spectacular. I think we're so caught up in the financial side of things when in reality, teams are too focused on the big moves and contracts than putting together a team that can get them this far in the playoffs. Florida didn't make a single move at the deadline and Carolina made two depth moves. They've gone on to beat teams that acquired the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi, Dmitry Orlov, Ryan O'Reilly, Jake McCabe, Bo Horvat, Pierre Engvall, and Timo Meier. Both teams did it the right way and made their moves in the offseason. If you're upset about these two playing in the conference finals, cry about it. 

Now that I'm off my soapbox, there are so many storylines to follow here. The one that people around here will fixate on is the clash of the Staal brothers. Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal will be welcoming his brothers, former Hurricane captain Eric Staal and Marc Staal, with a trip to the Stanley Cup on the line. Eric is a former champion with the Canes and Marc remains the only brother in the family to never suit up for the Canes. I'm sure this is going to be a tough series for the entire lineage of Staals. We'll also likely hear a lot about Paul Maurice leading the Panthers into this series by facing his former team and coaching opposite a former player of his. Maurice was behind the bench when the Canes made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2002 and the Eastern Conference Final in 2009, both with Rod Brind'Amour as a player. For those that have been fans of these two teams for a long time, this will also be a battle of the ever-resurgent Southeast Division. Since the division realignment in 2013-14, the Southeast Division has won the Prince of Wales Trophy in five of the nine years and is guaranteed to win it again this season. For years, the Southeast Division was the butt of the joke. Now, they're dominating the league. 

As for the product on the ice, these two teams have taken very different paths to get here. The Panthers had to scratch and claw to get back in the Boston series before shutting down Toronto and holding them to exactly two goals per game. Carolina won a tight series against the Islanders before dominating New Jersey on both sides of the scoreboard in four of their five games. The Canes have allowed the fewest goals in the postseason. Florida has allowed the third-fewest per game of the teams remaining. The Panthers are hitting pretty much everything in sight. The Canes are less likely to be the aggressors. Florida relies a lot on their top stars to get them going, like Tkachuk, Barkov, Verhaeghe, and Montour. Carolina has stars like Aho and Burns but is more likely to depend on their depth to get the job done. The Canes have been at the top of the league for the entire season. The Panthers barely made it into the playoffs. There is such a different dynamic to these two teams other than the pure belief that they deserve to be here and should be considered the favorite to win this series. 

There are two important factors that are likely to determine this series from the beginning. First, will the Canes' dominance at home be able to withstand Florida's near-perfection on the road. Since getting back into the playoffs in 2019, the Canes are the best postseason home team for anyone that has played at least ten games on home ice. They're 22-9, including 5-1 this postseason while allowing less than two goals per game. However, Florida has played without home ice in both series and has gone 6-1 on the road this postseason, winning all three games in Toronto. I strongly believe that home ice is important, so if the Canes can jump out to a 2-0 lead like they have in the first two rounds then they should be fine. The other big battle will be on special teams. It's well-documented how good the Canes' penalty kill is but the Panthers have a sneakily strong power play, sporting the third-best power play of the teams remaining (27.6%). On the opposite end of the spectrum, both Carolina's power play (18.9%) and Florida's penalty kill (68.4%) are struggling in the postseason. If one of them can snap out of their funk, they'll give that team a huge advantage moving forward. 

No matter who wins this series, they'll have earned their spot in the Stanley Cup Final. The Canes did a decent job of stopping Florida's stars during their three meetings this season and with Staal likely to match up against Florida's big guns whenever possible, I think they could continue to do that. There's going to be a lot of stress on the goaltending, especially with how well Frederik Andersen and Sergei Bobrovsky are playing. I think the Canes are the better team but Florida has been in two tougher series to this point. With so many days in between each team's clinching victories, I don't think fatigue will be much of an issue when Game 1 does roll around. Even with all of their injuries, the Canes have made it this far. I believe in their team game more and I think they'll be representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final with a six-game series victory.