Carolina Hurricanes 1st Round Review & 2nd Round Preview

Before this series began, I was surprised by the number of analysts and hockey personalities on social media that picked the Islanders to beat the Canes. While we shouldn't really care what others think, it was a large number. I picked the Canes in six games and I never wavered from that. There was a point during Game 6 where I thought we were likely going to a Game 7 but I still had trust in this group to get the job done. That's exactly what they did. Despite the injuries both before and during the injuries, the Canes were able to largely outplay their opponents and played like the division champions they are. There were plenty of reasons for concern heading into the series but the Canes were the better team and they'll be dancing a little bit longer. 

A Quick Series Recap

Game 1- The power play struck twice as Aho and Noesne provide the offense and Raanta stops 25 shots as the Canes take the opening game, 2-1. 

Game 2- New York shows more signs of life but a late tying goal from Slavin and the overtime winner from Fast sends PNC Arena into a frenzy as the Canes take a 2-0 series lead with a 4-3 victory. 

Game 3- The defensive struggle of Game 3 turns into a rout as New York scores four times in the final four minutes of the game to get back into the series with a 5-1 win. 

Game 4- The Canes' road woes come to an end as they put up five goals on Sorokin, led by two from Jarvis as the Canes put the Islanders on the brink of elimination in a 5-2 stomping. 

Game 5- The Islanders keep their season alive by capitalizing on some mistakes from the Canes and incredible goaltending by Sorokin to take Game 5 in Raleigh, 3-2. 

Game 6- Third-period heroics from Aho and a dirty goal from Stastny in overtime propel the Canes into the second round as Andersen makes his postseason debut and outduels Sorokin. 

The Good

1. The penalty kill

Before the series, I acknowledged that New York doesn't have a very good power play. That doesn't make what the Canes did any less impressive. The Canes were short-handed 18 times in this series. They killed 17 of the 18 penalties. While the one goal that New York did score ended up being a consequential one, the Canes never allowed them to do anything else. The kill got them through some tight games and earned them a goal in Game 3. At 94.4%, this sets a new franchise record for the best percentage in a postseason series, eclipsing the 92.9% mark from the 2020 Qualifying Round against the Rangers. 

2. Sebastian Aho

Without a doubt, the best player on the ice for either team was Sebastian Aho. To be clear, I mean Carolina's Aho, not New York's. He was definitely the most consistent Hurricanes for all six games, recording at least one point in five of the six games. He led all skaters in goals (4) and points (7) and his three-point game in Games 4 helped the Canes end their struggles on the road. When the Canes needed a goal, he could be counted on. He scored the biggest goal of the series in the third period of the clinching game to tie it and force overtime. Not to mention he's not the franchise's leader in postseason goals with 22 and counting. 

3. Keeping some of their stars at bay

If you take the top seven scorers from the regular season and trade deadline acquisition Bo Horvat, only Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri had more than two points in this series, both finishing with two goals and three assists. Mathew Barzal only had two goals and while one was a game-winner, he was pretty much a non-factor in every other game. Anders Lee only had one goal. Jean-Gabriel Pageau only had an assist. Horvat managed just two points. For as good as Ilya Sorokin was, he didn't get the kind of help he needed to steal this series. 

4. Scoring from all angles

Facing a goalie like Sorokin, you aren't going to beat him with bodies in front of the net, sticks redirecting everything they can, and even the occasional bad angle. The Canes scored 16 goals against Sorokin in this series. I looked at each one and this is what I found. There were three tips or redirections, two tap-ins at the side of the net, two clear one-timers, two odd-man rushes, one friendly fire, one breakaway, one complete defensive breakdown, one from between the dots, one snap from the right dot, and two goals from at or below the goal line. The Canes did it from every angle to grind out some big goals. The two from sharp angles were especially important because they were Slavin's tying goal in Game 2 and Stastny's series-clinching goal in Game 6. Sorokin is great at what he does but you have to find a way to beat him in some greasy ways. 

5. Returning the physicality

Another thing we knew about the Islanders before the series was that they were going to throw their bodies around. Their fourth line of Cizikas, Clutterbuck, and Martin was going to be especially brutal. The Canes matched the physicality in two different ways. First, they stepped up and matched the Islanders' physicality. Twice in the series they outhit New York, both wins. There were also a few games where the hit margin was barely in New York's favor. Second, the Canes knew when and when not to retaliate because it awarded them a few opportunities. Two particular incidents involving Martin in Games 2 and 4 directly led to goals on the power play. The Canes didn't allow themselves to get caught up in New York trying to play a different game and it won them the series. 

6. The decision to start Andersen in Game 6

This isn't meant to be a slight toward Antti Raanta because the Canes don't build their lead unless he wins three of the first four games. He outplayed Sorokin at times to get out to the big lead. When Rod Brind'Amour decided to start Andersen in the sixth game, I was both surprised and intrigued. The worst that could happen is the Canes lose Game 6 and Game 7 comes back to Raleigh with Raanta in the net. Instead, Andersen held the Islanders to one goal and made some huge stops to clinch the series. I'm not sure what this means for Game 1 of the second round but the Canes seem to be in a good place right now between the pipes. 

The Not-So-Good

1. The power play at times

To begin the series, the Canes' power play looked good. They scored twice in Game 1 and once more in Game 2. They also had a good game in Game 5 with two more goals. Still, it was very streaky. Though they scored in Game 2, they only went 1-for-6. They went 0-for-4 in Games 3 and 5, both losses. Even in Game 6, they went 0-for-2. I'm not saying that the power play should be looking like Edmonton's but it needs to be something that teams fear. I'm not sure the Canes' power play is quite on that level. It might be several steps below that. I'm looking for it to be even more productive in the second round. 

2. Martin Necas' decision-making

After an outstanding regular season, Necas was a player that needed to step up in the first round. He started fine with two assists in Game 1. The problem wasn't that he disappeared from the series after that. It was that he was ever-present in some of New York's successful moments. At 4-on-4 or 5-on-5, Necas had zero points and he was a -5. All three of his points were on the power play. His decision-making with the puck, especially in the neutral zone, was baffling at times throughout the series. It was the same way at times in the final weeks of the regular season. He needs to snap out of this funk because he needs to carry some of the load with Teravainen out. 

3. The lack of defensive scoring

I don't think this was talked about enough during this series. After leading the league in goals by the defense, the Canes only had one goal from its group of six with Slavin's third-period goal in Game 2 being the lone tally. Now, five of the six did record points with Burns finishing with five assists to lead the group but this team is at its best when the defense is putting the puck into the back of the net. Look for Brady Skjei to be a bigger part of the second round. 

2nd Round Opponent- New Jersey Devils

The Hurricanes were the final team to know who they would be playing in the second round as the Devils and the Rangers fought in a tough seven-game series. In the end, New Jersey prevailed, setting up a battle between two teams separated by one point in the Metropolitan Division at the end of the season. The Devils fell behind 2-0 in the series after the Rangers won both Games 1 and 2 on the road by a final score of 5-1. Vitek Vanecek had started both games but Lindy Ruff changed it up for Game 3, sending Akira Schmid out with the team's season on the line back in New York. Schmid was up to the challenge. He held New York to two goals total in the two games in New York and shut them out in Game 5 back at home to take a 3-2 lead. The Rangers, with their season now in danger, responded with a resounding 5-2 win in Game 6 to force a seventh game but Schmid shut them out again in Game 7 as the Devils won their first series in a decade. Erik Haula, who will be facing the Canes for the third straight postseason on his third different team, led the Devils with four goals and six points in the series. Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat, and Nico Hischier all followed with five points. 

Head-to-Head This Season

Each team won twice this season with New Jersey holding a slight 5-4 advantage in points thanks to a shootout loss. Both teams won once in Raleigh and once in New Jersey. Here's a quick recap of all four meetings this season. 

December 20- Carolina 4, New Jersey 1- Jesperi Kotkaniemi wasted little time putting the Canes ahead as he scored 20 seconds into the game against Vitek Vanecek. The rest of the game would largely be dominated by New Jersey in terms of possession but controlled by Carolina on the scoreboard. Jordan Staal made it 2-0 and Teuvo Teravainen added a short-handed goal as the Canes led by three after 40 minutes. Vanecek would be pulled for Mackenzie Blackwood and while Jack Hughes scored to break the shutout, Stefan Noesen banked a puck in off of the back of Blackwood to respond. Pyotr Kochetkov would finish the game with 37 saves as the Canes won at home. 

January 1- Carolina 5, New Jersey 4 (SO)- The two teams met 12 days later to begin the new year and it was a tight one. Derek Stepan scored eight minutes into the second period to break the ice but Jack Hughes responded to tie it. Sebastian Aho scored another short-handed goal to give the Canes the lead heading into the third. There would be five goals in the final 20 minutes, beginning with Jesper Bratt to tie it again. Stepan scored his second of the game less than two minutes later but Nico Hischier tied it again 34 seconds later. Bratt gave New Jersey its first lead of the game with 6:12 to go. Martin Necas answered quickly on the power play to send the game to overtime. The game would need a shootout and Andrei Svechnikov would be the only scorer as Antti Raanta denied Tomas Tatar, Bratt, and Hughes to take the second point. Despite the loss, Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 43 shots to earn a point. 

January 10- New Jersey 5, Carolina 3- Canes fans will likely remember this game for a few reasons, almost all bad. Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored short-handed to put the Canes ahead but Jonas Siegenthaler scored a very leaky goal from a bad angle on Pyotr Kochetkov to tie it before the end of the period. Max Pacioretty scored his third goal in three games to give the Canes the lead again and Sebastian Aho scored another short-handed goal as the Canes looked like they were heading into the intermission up 3-1. Dawson Mercer had other ideas. He scored and set up a goal 18 seconds apart in the final minute of the second period to tie it. From there, the Canes couldn't find any offense. Mercer scored his second of the game and Nico Hischier scored into the empty net to get some revenge. 

March 12- New Jersey 3, Carolina 0- This was the Canes' first game since losing Andrei Svechnikov to a torn ACL and the offense didn't show up. Jack Hughes scored a goal and set up Jesper Bratt for a goal 2:03 apart in the first period to put New Jersey ahead and that would've been more than enough in this game. Bratt scored once again in the second period as Hughes picked up his third point of the game on the only assist as the Devils cruised to a shutout victory. Vitek Vanecek stopped all 32 shots he faced in the win. 

Past Postseason History

The Canes and the Devils are preparing to meet for the fifth time since the Canes relocated to North Carolina. Each matchup has taken place in the 21st century and on three previous occasions, the winning team has gone on to win the conference. In 2001, New Jersey jumped out to a 3-0 series lead in the ECQF and while Carolina fought back for two wins, New Jersey would prevail in six games en route to losing in the Stanley Cup Final to the Avalanche. The following year, they would meet again in the ECQF in a series that featured "The Save" from Kevin Weekes on John Madden. The Canes won the series in six games and would ultimately lose to Detroit in the Stanley Cup Final. In 2006, they met for the first time in the ECSF and New Jersey was one of the hottest teams in the league at the time. The Canes set the tone with a 6-0 win in Game 1 as they cruised to a five-game series win before winning the Stanley Cup. In 2009, the Canes pulled off a huge upset in the ECQF, completing it with "The Shock at the Rock" in Game 7 before losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Pittsburgh. They haven't met since then with the Canes going through their decade of darkness and New Jersey just now coming out of a long rebuild. It'll be the first time the Canes have faced the Devils without Martin Brodeur as the starting goalie. 

3 Things to Watch

1. Who steps up and leads the charge for the Hurricanes after a rough first round?

There are a few different guys that really need to start producing. This feels like a great time for Jesperi Kotkaniemi to come out. He was very good in Game 6 against the Islanders and he led the Canes in points against the Devils this season. Martin Necas is another guy that really needs a big series. While he did have three points in the first round, he was sloppy with the puck. I also mentioned Brady Skjei earlier as someone that could really produce. This series is going to be a dogfight and everyone needs to be prepared to do their part. 

2. How does the amount of rest, or lack thereof for New Jersey, affect the first few games?

In recent seasons, we've seen both sides of the rest argument for the Canes. During the initial return to the postseason in 2019, the Canes were on the good and bad end of rest. When they faced the Islanders in the second round in 2019, New York had just swept their series, while the Canes fought to win in seven. The Canes would go on to sweep New York, giving them plenty of rest before facing Boston. They would then go on to get swept in the conference finals. In this series, the Canes haven't played since Friday, while the Devils have played twice since then. New Jersey will have only had Tuesday off before the series starts on Wednesday. The first period of Game 1 could tell us a lot about how this series will go. 

3. Which team's goalie situation puts them in the best lane for success?

Rod Brind'Amour has kicked the tires on the idea of using both goalies in the second round. He went with Antti Raanta for the first five games of the New York series before starting Frederik Andersen in Game 6. We could see a situation where both goalies play in this series, regardless of the amount of rest. For New Jersey, Akira Schmid has been the story of the postseason thus far. It's been his net since he took it over for Vitek Vanecek before Game 3. Vanecek was very good against the Canes this season outside of the first meeting. If Schmid can keep this kind of performance up, the decision is pretty easy. However, he's been the third goalie for most of the season. How much of a lease is he going to be on before Lindy Ruff turns back to Vanecek?

My Honest Thoughts

Once the Canes won their series with the Islanders, I said that the Devils would be a more favorable matchup for the Canes than the Rangers. I don't mean that as a slight toward New Jersey because I honestly think both matchups would be tough for the Canes. The Devils are about as opposite of the Islanders as there could be. They are much faster and much more offensively minded. New Jersey is at least a year ahead of where everyone expected them to be and they pushed the Canes to the limit for the division crown. Both teams ended up playing similar series in the first round. Both teams played very good goalies and struggled to score at times. New Jersey scored one more goal than the Canes did (16-15) but Carolina allowed two fewer goals to the Islanders than the Devils did to the Rangers (17-15). One could argue that what New Jersey did was more impressive considering they did it primarily with a third-string goalie against a far better team offensively. 

Special teams are going to be a big battle that the Canes are going to have to win if they stand any chance of beating the Devils. They were by far the better team on the power play and the penalty kill in the first round. They converted on 20 percent of their power plays and set a new franchise record by killing 94.4 percent of their penalties. New Jersey is going to be a lot more lethal on the power play and their penalty kill was very good in the regular season. Their kill struggled at times against the Rangers but they were still over 80 percent for the series. The other big battle is going to be in the net. Akira Schmid was excellent in the first round against the Rangers after Vitek Vanecek was less than stellar. The Hurricanes used both of their goalies in the first round with Antti Raanta winning three of the first five games before Frederik Andersen clinched the series in Game 6. I think the Canes' situation in the net is better overall but Schmid hardly allowed a goal in the first round. Using two goalies, as the Canes might do, is an interesting strategy and I would be concerned if the team didn't play well in front of both during the regular season. 

At the end of the day, my loyalty remains with the Hurricanes and I think they have what it takes to win this series. As a team, their core has more playoff experience together than the Devils and they'll be coming off more days of rest than the Devils. Getting off to a strong start is going to be crucial, so defending home ice should be the top priority. The Canes have been able to stop other team's superstars at times this season and they'll need to do that to Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier. The Canes might not blow away the Devils with five goals per game but they can slow them down. The road games are going to be interesting and while I see this one going the distance, I think the Canes will have this one in seven games.