2022-23 Regular Season, Game 79: Hurricanes (50-19-9) at Buffalo Sabres

For the second time this season, the Hurricanes were shut down by Juuse Saros and the Nashville Predators. An early short-handed goal against and their failure to generate anything substantial made it a relatively easy night for Saros despite needing to make 32 saves. The Canes did have two goals disallowed because of goalie interference and offsides, causing them to be shut out for the fourth time in just about a month. The loss paired with a win from the Devils shrunk the lead in the division to one point with one game in hand. With just four games remaining, the Canes are riding a fine line between facing a Wild Card team or the Rangers in the first round. Tonight, they face another team that is desperate to stay in the playoff race as they try to stay afloat in the division. 

Projected Lines/Pairs

Teuvo Teravainen--Sebastian Aho-Jesse Puljujarvi

Seth Jarvis-Jesperi Kotkaniemi-Martin Necas

Jordan Martinook-Jordan Staal-Jesper Fast

Jack Drury-Paul Stastny-Derek Stepan

Jaccob Slavin-Brent Burns

Brady Skjei-Brett Pesce

Shayne Gostisbehere-Jalen Chatfield

Antti Raanta

Frederik Andersen

Injuries/Scratches- Stefan Noesen (lower-body), Calvin de Haan (healthy), Dylan Coghlan (healthy),

IR- Andrei Svechnikov (Torn ACL), Max Pacioretty (Achilles), Ondrej Kase (concussion)

Shortly before warm-ups today, Stefan Noesen was announced to miss the game with a lower-body injury. This will move Seth Jarvis back into the top six and bring Paul Stastny back into the lineup on the 4th line. The top six got a major shake-up with Jesse Puljujarvi joining Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen on the top line with Jarvis and Martin Necas on the second line with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The defensive pairs will remain the same. Antti Raanta will get the start in the net for the Canes. He's started both games against the Sabres this season, winning both. 

Tonight's Opponent: Buffalo Sabres (38-32-7, 83 Points, 5th in the Atlantic)

The Sabres sit six points out of a playoff spot right now but they have two games in hand over Florida, New York, and Pittsburgh. After going 2-8-2 across a 12-game span, Buffalo has turned it around by going 5-1-1 over their last seven. While they've been winning, they've been playing in some tight games. They were in action on Thursday night in Detroit and it was a barn burner. The action got started early with Alex Tuch drawing a penalty shot that was stopped. 35 seconds later, Tage Thompson scored his 45th goal of the season. Detroit scored twice in just under five minutes to take a 2-1 lead but Henri Jokiharju and Dylan Cozens scored less than two minutes apart to lead 3-2 after one. Zemgus Girgensons expanded the lead 1:33 into the second period. Detroit tied the game before the end of the period by scoring twice in 48 seconds to tie it at four. Jordan Greenway put Buffalo back ahead and Cozens added his second of the night 72 seconds later, putting the Sabres back ahead 6-4. The Red Wings responded with two more of their own, including a David Perron goal with one minute left in regulation to tie it up and force overtime. Both goalies kept the game tied and in the shootout, Tuch would score the winner as Devon Levi picked up the second win of his NHL career, stopping 26 shots and two of Detroit's three shootout attempts. The game plan for the Sabres seems to be to outscore all of their problems. They hold the fifth-best offense in the league but are one of the worst in the league at preventing goals. Thompson is one of many players that has eclipsed 40 goals and he's a few good games away from reaching 100 points. Tuch, Jeff Skinner, and Cozens all have surpassed 30 goals. Rasmus Dahlin is likely to be in the Norris conversation as he approaches 70 points. However, they allow about 3.5 goals per game and their lack of solid goaltending could prevent them from breaking their playoff drought this season. 

Last Meeting v. Carolina- The Canes and the Sabres last met in the final game before the All-Star break in Buffalo. On that night, Carolina was in control. Sebastian Aho started it on the power play, then Stefan Noesen and Brent Burns scored 2:42 apart to give the Canes a 3-0 lead just 12:47 into the game against Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Tuch would find an answer before the end of the period to make it 3-1 but that's all Buffalo would muster against Antti Raanta. Derek Stepan and Jordan Martinook would each score in the third period as the Canes cruised into the break with a 5-1 victory. Noesen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jalen Chatfield would each finish the game with two points and Raanta made 29 saves in the victory. 

Buffalo's Starting Goalie: Devon Levi (2-1-0, 3.23 GAA, .901 SV%- The Sabres are cycling around three goalies right now but Devin Levi is going to get the start after playing on Thursday night. This will be his fourth NHL start, having won two of the first three. He allowed two goals in each of his first two starts, including a win over the Rangers in his NHL debut. Levi allowed six goals on Thursday night but stopped two of the three shots he faced in the shootout to win the game. 

Buffalo Player to Watch: Owen Power- Buffalo has plenty of young stars that are going to eventually get the Sabres into the playoffs and Power is going to be a major piece of the defense. While he hasn't scored a goal in 23 games, Power is finding his teammates. He has six points in his last five contests, including a career-high three-point night on Thursday against Detroit. He's yet to score in his career against the Canes but he's on a bit of a heater. 

Scoring Summary

1st Period

(BUF) 4:00- Casey Mittelstadt (11) (assisted by Jeff Skinner (41) & Rasmus Dahlin (56))

(CAR) 14:34- Seth Jarvis (14) (assisted by Jesperi Kotkaniemi (24))

(CAR) 14:56- Jesper Fast (9) (assisted by Jordan Staal (16) & Jordan Martinook (21))

2nd Period

(BUF) 4:04- Rasmus Dahlin (15) PP (assisted by Jeff Skinner (42) & Alex Tuch (39))

(CAR) 11:04- Sebastian Aho (35) (assisted by Teuvo Teravainen (25) & Jesse Puljujarvi (11))

(BUF) 18:18- Casey Mittelstadt (12) (assisted by Rasmus Dahlin (57) & Owen Power (31))

3rd Period

(BUF) 6:15- Tage Thompson (46) (assisted by Dylan Cozens (36))

Let's Talk About the Game

The longer this goes, the more it feels like we're going to finish second in the division and play the Rangers in the first round. Rasmus Dahlin won this game for Buffalo today. He was everywhere on both ends of the ice and did just about everything for them. He makes arguably the defensive play of the game and Buffalo goes down to score the eventual game-winner seconds later. It's just a deflating loss and while it doesn't take destiny out of our hands completely, it makes me even more anxious about New Jersey-Boston tonight. Buffalo took the lead early in the first with Jeff Skinner looking like he doubles as a soccer player. He kicked a pass perfectly to Casey Mittselstadt and he beat Antti Raanta with no defensive help in sight. Right before the goal, the Canes had failed to clear the puck out of the zone and it cost them dearly. To make matters worse, the Canes would be called for a penalty shortly after the goal, giving Buffalo a prime chance to extend the lead. The penalty kill would do its thing and kill it with ease. The Canes pushed back the longer the period went and they'd be rewarded twice. First, Seth Jarvis tried to feather a pass through for a chance but he would get the puck back as he snapped it past Devon Levi to get the Canes on the board and snap a 20-game goalless drought. 22 seconds later, Jesper Fast would bury a beautiful pass from Jordan Staal after he carried the puck around the net. Just like that, the Canes had seized control of the game and found themselves in the lead. The Canes would be called for their second penalty of the game late in the period and after killing it off, they would draw their penalty to give them time before the end of the period to extend the lead even further. They wouldn't score in the final 1:09, so the penalty would carry over as they held a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes. 

The second period was the definitive turning point for me. After killing the penalty, the Sabres drew their third penalty of the night after Jalen Chatfield stepped up on Riley Stillman following a clean hit on Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Stillman dropped his gloves like they were about to fight and Chatfield pretty much cross-checked and tackled him. Chatfield would be given the door and Dahlin would get one into the net from the point with traffic. The Canes were given a penalty after the goal was scored and it was assessed to the bench. While I'm not sure what the call was, my guess is that it had something to do with Rod Brind'Amour not liking something. Nevertheless, the Canes would kill this one. Once again, the Canes pushed back and they would be rewarded as the Finns all connected on a goal finished by Sebastian Aho. The chemistry of Aho and Teuvo Teravainen was very present in this play and Jesse Puljujarvi joined in on the fun too. Levi locked in after the Aho goal. He stopped everything thrown his way to keep it a one-goal game and Buffalo would eventually find the equalizer again. This play was all about Dahlin because he dangled through the defense beautifully before finding Mittelstadt with a sweet backhand pass. The net was wide open as Mittelstadt scored his second of the game to tie it in the final two minutes of the period. Once this goal was scored, that sinking feeling set in. The Canes had played a solid game and Buffalo still managed to hang around. 

Heading into the third period, Buffalo had momentum on their side. The defining play of this game came early in the period. The puck was bouncing everywhere but the Canes would eventually settle it down. It would make its way to Martin Necas with Levi out of position. He tried playing the puck from his skate to his stick and as he was going to shoot it, Dahlin stuck his stick in the lane to deny what should've been a sure goal. Buffalo would turn the puck the other way and Tage Thompson would bury a pass from Dylan Cozens to put the Sabres ahead seconds after the Canes could've taken the lead. I felt Buffalo actually got the better of play in the third period, at least for most of it. Raanta was forced to make some big saves as the Sabres continued to swarm. Skinner would be called for an interference penalty late in the period, giving the Canes a huge opportunity to level it. The power play, as has been the case in the last month, provided no spark. It was easily killed, forcing Raanta to the bench with about 2:30 left. From there, the Canes couldn't generate anything with the extra attacker. Buffalo would kill the clock and win a huge game to keep their hopes alive as the Canes' fan base starts to grow worried. 

This is one you really would've liked to see the Canes win. It's a less-than-ideal time to lose back-to-back games in regulation, especially with a team like New Jersey on your heels because they never seem to lose a game. There were some good things we saw from the Canes tonight but I'm going to focus on a few of the negatives first. The defense was held without a point for the second game in a row. Brent Burns played a huge part in the Aho goal but he didn't earn an assist on the play. For a team that relies on their defense for scoring, this isn't something you like to see. I felt that Necas was largely a non-factor in this game and has been struggling for the last several contests. He's trying to do way too much with the puck when he has it instead of making the easy play. His legs are moving way faster than his brain is right now. Otherwise, it wasn't a bad afternoon for the Canes. There isn't too much you can look at and say was terrible. Despite having his point streak snapped, I thought Raanta played a solid game. I honestly can't look at any of the goals he allowed and say that they were bad goals. Jesperi Kotkaniemi reached 40 points for the first time in his career with an assist. The Staal line had a solid game. The three Finns seemed to fit well together. I think it was evident that Noesen was missed today. His presence in front of the net would've been helpful. Not much we can do now except watch the Devils tonight and hope that Boston still cares about the regular season now that they've wrapped up the President's Trophy. A win for Boston could help ease the sting of this loss by the Canes, a sentence I have no pleasure in writing. 

Canes' Three Stars of the Game

Third Star- Jesper Fast (Goal)

The Staal line had a good night and the largest benefactor of that was Fast. He was on the receiving end of a hard-working play from Staal and found some daylight past Levi. Fast finished with three shots and a pair of hits. He nearly got his stick on another great pass from Staal that possibly would've tied the game in the third. 

Second Star- Seth Jarvis (Goal)

While he obviously meant to pass the puck, sometimes it takes a little bit of luck to break out of a goalless drought. Luck was on Jarvis' side as he received a lucky bounce and buried it into the net. He was moving all day today, finishing with four shots, second only to Kotkaniemi. I like how he's looked the last few games and it was good to see him on the board again. 

First Star- Sebastian Aho (Goal)

You need your big-time players to step up and provide a spark and Aho did that in the second period with his go-ahead goal. Give some credit to his linemates for setting him up for his 35th of the season. While the lead wouldn't hold, it was still big at the time. He was a lot more physical today than we usually see him, finishing second on the team with three hits in the game. 

What's Next for the Canes

The Canes enter the final week of the season with three games left. They'll look to salvage a rough road trip by traveling to Ottawa to face the Senators for the second time in four games on Monday. Ottawa will be in action later today as they host Tampa Bay. They'll return home for their last home game before the playoffs as they finish their final back-to-back of the season on Tuesday night as Detroit comes to town. The Red Wings lost 5-1 today to the Penguins and will also be in action on Monday, hosting Dallas. The final game of the season is on Thursday night against the Florida Panthers and it could have some potentially huge implications for the playoff picture. 

I wanted to take a look real quick at the math for the Canes to clinch the division or, at the very least, home ice in the first round. Following today's loss, the Canes, the Devils, and the Rangers all have three games remaining. New Jersey and New York will both play tonight, meaning they'll be down to two games left by the time Monday rolls around. Given their current point totals, the most the Devils can finish with is 114 points and the most the Rangers can finish with is 110. One win in their final three games ensures the Hurricanes will finish in the top two of the division and would put them at home if they do face the Rangers in the first round. The Canes would win the division if both they and the Devils win out. If New Jersey loses today to Boston or at any point in their next three, the Canes would need to win two of their final three games to ensure their third straight division title. It's not an exact science but that's how my brain is operating right now. 

What's Next for the Teams in the Playoff Hunt

New Jersey (108 Points, 3 GR, 1 Point Behind the Canes for 1st)

Remaining Schedule- Today at Boston, Tuesday v. Buffalo, Thursday at Washington 

New York (R) (104 Points, 3 GR, 4 Points Behind the Devils for 2nd)

Remaining Schedule- Today at Columbus, Monday v. Buffalo, Thursday v. Toronto

Pittsburgh (90 Points, 2 GR, 1st WC, Carolina's current 1st round opponent)

Remaining Schedule- Tuesday v. Chicago, Thursday at Columbus

Florida (89 Points, 3 GR, 2nd WC, 1 Point Behind Pittsburgh with a game in hand)

Remaining Schedule- Today at Washington, Monday v. Toronto, Thursday v. Carolina

New York (I) (89 Points, 3 GR, Tied with Florida in Points with 1 fewer RW)

Remaining Schedule- Today v. Philadelphia, Monday at Washington, Wednesday v. Montreal)