2023 MLB Preview

Baseball season is upon us once again and after the thrilling World Baseball Classic got out appetites wetted, the real thing can begin now. We were treated to another exciting season in 2022 with the Houston Astros standing back on the top of the mountain by the end of the postseason. It featured the Seattle Mariners getting back to the playoffs, some historic playoff games, and a new AL home run king as Aaron Judge slugged 62 en route to the AL MVP. 2023 promises to be another good year with plenty of exciting rookies and stories to follow. 

AL East

2022 Review

Final Standings

New York 99-63 (Lost 4-0 in the ALCS)

Toronto 92-70 (L 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Round)

Tampa Bay 86-76 (L 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Round)

Baltimore 83-79

Boston 78-84 

New York- Every story in the league took a backseat in the final weeks as Aaron Judge chased the American League home run record. Broadcasts were interrupted to see his at-bats, angering many in the process, but he eventually broke it by hitting his 62nd of the season en route to a near-unanimous AL MVP-winning season.

Toronto- After firing Charlie Montoyo just past the midway point of the season, the Blue Jays caught fire in the AL East, making the playoffs for the fourth time in eight seasons before losing in the Wild Card Round. Three Blue Jays finished in the top 17 in the MVP race with Alek Manoah also finishing third in the Cy Young race. 

Tampa Bay- Despite most of their major players missing extended amounts of time, the Rays got outstanding efforts from their pitching staff. Shane McClanahan turned into an ace, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs made the most of their first seasons as starters, and the bullpen, anchored by Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam, helped the Rays finish with the fourth-best ERA and secure a playoff spot.

Baltimore- The Orioles had lost 100+ games three times in the last four seasons, including 110 in 2021. It felt like it was almost out of nowhere that the ship turned around and with the help of AL Rookie of the Year runner-up and former top prospect Adley Rutschman, the Orioles finished above .500 for the first time since 2016.

Boston- The same Red Sox team that made it to the ALCS in 2021 couldn't find that same magic in 2022. Injuries played a factor in that and it caused the pitching to suffer, finishing 25th in the league in ERA and runs allowed, despite a top-ten offense. They finished last in the division for the fifth time in the last 11 seasons and the second time in the last three. 

2023 Preview

New York 95-67*

Toronto 90-72*

Tampa Bay 85-77*

Boston 79-83

Baltimore 78-84

Getting an extension done for Judge and signing Carlos Rodon to bolster the rotation has the Yankees as the early favorite to win the AL East again this season. The Yankees have one of the best offenses in the league, especially with Judge in the lineup. They'll get a good fight from the rest of the division, especially from Toronto. I've been high on Toronto for a few seasons and with the additions of Daulton Varsho and Chris Bassitt, they should comfortably find themselves in the playoffs. I'm a little worried about the Rays. They didn't do anything to improve their offense, easily their biggest weakness, but we've seen them work wonders with a lot less. They still have one of the best rotations in the league, so they'll have to do a lot of the lifting. Boston added a lot through free agency in the offseason but the losses of Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez are huge. A healthy Chris Sale could help keep them out of the cellar and make this season respectable. The Orioles are a tough team to read because I'm still not sold on them just yet. I do think they got better this offseason, bringing in James McCann, Cole Irvin, and Kyle Gibson. I'm just unsure if they can keep up with the big dogs in the division.  

AL Central

2022 Review

Final Standings

Cleveland 92-70 (L 3-2 in the ALDS)

Chicago 81-81

Minnesota 78-84

Detroit 66-96

Kansas City 65-97

Cleveland- The Guardians era in Cleveland began and it started with some good results. AL Manager of the Year Terry Francona led the Guardians to a division title with the help of Jose Ramirez (4th in the AL MVP voting) and a trio of starters that nearly hit 200 innings each and had ERAs under 3.00. They nearly made it to the ALCS, falling just short in a five-game series loss to the Yankees. 

Chicago- It felt like a lot of the news from the team last season was about Tony La Russa and his health issues. It caused him to miss a lot of time during the season. It also didn't help that the product on the field wasn't excellent. Dylan Cease was one of the lone exceptions, finishing second in Cy Young voting despite a league-leading 78 walks.  

Minnesota- 2022 was a slight improvement on 2021 but not by much. They won five more games last season with Luis Arraez winning the AL batting titles by hitting .316. Most of their underlying numbers would suggest they should've finished a lot better than they did. Sometimes it just comes down to luck and it wasn't on their side. 

Detroit- The large contract they gave Javier Baez in the offseason and the number of top-tier prospects they have in their system made them a popular pick to improve. Ultimately, they didn't take the steps forward. Baez's first season didn't go to plan and the Tigers barely avoided 100 losses. Their offense finished last in runs and home runs while having the second-worst OBP, and sixth-worst average.

Kansas City- While the Royals finished last in the division, they showed some considerable promise by allowing their young stars to shine. Chief among them was Bobby Witt Jr, who finished 4th in Rookie of the Year voting. Add guys like Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, and MJ Melendez to that group and it gives some hope for the future. Their pitching, on the other hand, was rough. 

2023 Preview

Minnesota 88-74*

Cleveland 84-78

Chicago 78-84

Detroit 75-87

Kansas City 64-98

There are only two teams that I think really could compete for the division and I'm definitely picking the riskier option. I think both Cleveland and Minnesota are very close on paper. They have solid lineups with each lineup sporting a potential All-Star or two. Both of their pitching staffs can steal games when called upon. In the end, I've decided to predict a rebound season for the Twins with Cleveland falling back down a little. Re-signing Carlos Correa after it looked like he was going to both the Giants and the Mets helps to bolster this lineup and the trade for Pablo Lopez, while potentially risky, adds a good front-end starter. I think Cleveland has the better rotation and I could be wrong about their chances to win the division but I'm a little unsure about their lineup from top to bottom when compared to the Twins. Outside of that, I think Chicago is destined to take a slight step back without Jose Abreu in their lineup. Detroit is likely a year or two away from competing for the division crown. Kansas City has plenty of young players to build around, namely Bobby Witt Jr, but they will be at the bottom of the division again while they wait for their other players to mature. 

AL West

2022 Review

Final Standings

Houston 106-56 (W 4-2 in the World Series)

Seattle 90-72 (L 3-0 in the ALDS)

Los Angeles 73-89

Texas 68-94

Oakland 60-102

Houston- When looking at the Astros on paper, there's no wonder this team won the World Series. Five players hit 20+ home runs. Five pitchers won 10+ games. Six players received MVP votes, led by Yordan Alvarez (3rd) and Jose Altuve (5th). Justin Verlander won the Cy Young unanimously. They rolled their way to the World Series, losing just two games in the postseason. 

Seattle- The Mariners were partying like it was 2001 after clinching their first playoff berth in over two decades. They made it even more worthwhile by winning in the Wild Card round. The league was introduced to Julio Rodriguez, the AL Rookie of the Year. They were good in almost every aspect of the game and were rewarded with baseball in October. 

Los Angeles- Though they have two of the best players in the world, the Angels continue to be deprived of anything beyond the 162 games they're already guaranteed. Shohei Ohtani finished second in MVP voting after another phenomenal season. Mike Trout blasted 40 home runs. With a few exceptions, they still didn't get enough from their supporting cast to get them to October. 

Texas- The problem with the Rangers last season was that while they could hit the ball far and score runs, they were unable to get on base consistently and couldn't keep opponents off of the board. They finished near the bottom of the league in OBP and had a bottom-third pitching staff. They have plenty of good pieces that they've signed and could stand to make a jump this season.

Oakland- The worst record in the American League belonged to the A's last season. Oakland had one of the worst offenses in the league, finishing 29th in runs and dead last in hits, average, and OBP. The pitching staff was near the bottom of the league in a few categories as well. They traded most of their stars before the season started and it secured them the sixth pick in the upcoming draft. 

2023 Preview

Houston 96-66*

Seattle 87-75*

Texas 83-79

Los Angeles 74-88

Oakland 60-102

The rich only seem to get richer and the defending champs seem primed to do it all again this season. Losing Justin Verlander will be a blow to their rotation but they are going to outscore plenty of teams on a nightly basis. There is practically no weakness in their lineup and that's why I have them finishing with the best record in the American League. The more interesting story comes with the teams that follow them. Seattle broke their long postseason drought and while I don't think they're winning the division, they got better this offseason, adding Teoscar Hernandez and shoring up their bullpen. They look locked into a Wild Card spot barring a major collapse. Texas is going to be a team to watch because they also made major improvements. They overhauled their rotation, adding Jacob DeGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jake Odorizzi. They already had a pretty decent lineup. They could sneak into a Wild Card spot if someone slips. I've lost all hope in the Angels. They have two of the best players in the league when healthy and can never seem to string anything together. Shohei Ohtani's future is going to be the most heavily-discussed topic of the season as we ponder where he'll land next. Oakland has spent the last year unloading anyone that could help this team win, so they are going to be competing for the first pick instead. 

NL East

2022 Review

Final Standings

Atlanta 101-61 (L 3-1 in the NLDS)

New York 101-61 (L2-1 in the NL Wild Card Round)

Philadelphia 87-75 (L 4-2 in the World Series)

Miami 69-93

Washington 55-107

Atlanta- The reigning champs needed a hot finish and a sweep of New York to overcome the Mets late in the season to claim the crown. Though they weren't able to defend their title, it was a good year in Atlanta. Michael Harris II won the Rookie of the Year race against teammate Spencer Strider. Max Fried finished second for the Cy Young. Austin Riley's 38 home runs helped him finish 6th for MVP.

New York- The 2022 Mets won the second-most games in franchise history but were unable to hold their lead in the division. Pete Alonso mashed 40 home runs and tied for the MLB lead in RBIs (131). Francisco Lindor had a bounce-back season. They spent most of the season without their ace and still managed to win over 100 games. 

Philadelphia- It's fitting that the 3rd Wild Card made it to the World Series in the first year of postseason expansion. Kyle Schwarber mashed 46 home runs, leading the NL, while Rhys Hoskins hits another 30. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola led a pitching staff that wasn't as good statistically as you'd think. They got hot at the right time and came two days away from winning it all. 

Miami- The Marlins were one of the biggest surprises of 2020 but have failed to crack 70 wins in the last two seasons. The problems were mostly on offense. They scored the third-fewest runs, had the fourth-worst average, and the fourth-worst OBP. The bright spot was their pitching, especially Sandy Alcantara. The innings machine was the unanimous pick for the Cy Young Award in the NL. 

Washington- Baseball's worst team in 2022 was the Nationals and it wasn't particularly close. They saw the writing on the wall as they traded Juan Soto to the Padres at the trade deadline and got a good haul for him. Despite being 12th in hits, the Nationals had the fifth-fewest runs in the league. Their pitching wasn't any better, putting up the second-worst ERA in the league.

2023 Preview

Atlanta 98-64*

Philadelphia 94-68*

New York 89-73*

Miami 76-86

Washington 62-100

Assuming everyone remains healthy and produces as they're expected to, the Braves might have the best lineup in all of baseball. Adding Sean Murphy to be the catcher along with lineup staples like Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies should make them a nightmare to face for 162 games. The rotation isn't too bad either. The Phillies will give them a good fight for the division crown. There is a lot of skill in Philadelphia's lineup with Trea Turner coming to town and once they get Bryce Harper back from injury, they'll be mashing some baseballs. My concern is their pitching, in particular their rotation. After Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, I don't think they stack up well with Atlanta. The injury to Edwin Diaz during the World Baseball Classic is going to be a big loss for the Mets but not one they can't overcome. They still have a solid lineup and in losing a Cy Young pitcher, they gained another in Justin Verlander to go with Max Scherzer and Japanese signing Kodai Senga. The Mets should still be a playoff team but the concerns about their bullpen will only worsen without one of the best closers in the league. After the Mets, there's a considerable drop-off in the division. Miami has one of the best pitchers in the NL in Sandy Alcantara and one of the most exciting young players in Jazz Chisholm Jr, but they lack the firepower to compete with the big dogs in the division. Washington is basically starting from scratch after unloading all of their best players in recent seasons. They are miles away from where they were when they won their World Series and it'll likely show this year as they compete for the first pick in the draft. 

NL Central

2022 Review

Final Standings

St. Louis 93-69 (L 2-0 in the NL Wild Card Round)

Milwaukee 86-76

Chicago 74-88

Cincinnati 62-100

Pittsburgh 62-100

St. Louis- Despite the early postseason exit, the Cardinals had an excellent season. Paul Goldschmidt was named the NL MVP with teammate Nolan Arenado finishing 3rd. Albert Pujols finished his MLB career with the team that drafted him by winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year, hitting his 700th home run, and finishing with 703, the fourth-most in MLB history. 

Milwaukee- They missed the postseason by one game but got excellent performances offensively. Rowdy Tellez finished in the top ten in home runs (35). Willy Adames hit 31 home runs and drove in 98 runs in his first full season with the team. Corbin Burnes wasn't able to replicate his Cy Young season though he still finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and an NL-high 243 strikeouts. 

Chicago- The rough sledding for Chicago continued in 2022 as they never seemed to find their stride. They were in the bottom ten in runs scored and were 19th in ERA. Patrick Wisdom and Willson Contreras were the only two guys on the team to hit 20+ home runs and the health of their pitching staff caused them some serious problems.

Cincinnati- The race to the top pick partly ran through the bottom of the NL Central and based on some tiebreakers, the Reds avoided the cellar. It was destined to be a long season when they started 3-22 and never recovered. They would eventually trade Luis Castillo and it would end in Cincinnati having the third-worst ERA in the league. 

Pittsburgh- The only good to come from Pittsburgh's terrible season is that they won the inaugural draft lottery to earn the first pick for the second time in three years. They were in the bottom five offensive and defensively with Bryan Reynolds serving as the only player to have a consistently decent season. It's their sixth-straight season in the bottom two in the division and two straight 100-loss seasons.

2023 Preview

St. Louis 93-69*

Milwaukee 84-78

Chicago 83-79

Cincinnati 68-94

Pittsburgh 58-104

Even without making too many changes to their team, the Cardinals should be right back at the top of the division. Willson Contreras coming into Yadier Molina's spot will leave some major shoes to fill but he should be up to the task. They still feature one of the best duos in the league and a rotation that could give hitters fits all season. I struggled with both the Brewers and the Cubs because I like both teams on paper. Milwaukee has a strong lineup and one of the best pitchers in the league. They were very busy in the offseason, bringing in Jesse Winker, Brian Anderson, Abraham Toro, Wade Miley, and many more to help boost their team. I'm concerned about their rotation after Corbin Burns and Brandon Woodruff and their lineup staying consistent this season. For Chicago, they made a huge splash by signing a ton of players in free agency, namely Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Cody Bellinger. They're another team where pitching is a concern and it feels their going with a high-risk, high-reward strategy. The NL Central is another division where there is a step drop in quality. I don't hate the top half of Cincinnati's lineup, led by Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Wil Myers. I don't think they stand a chance of doing anything significant with how much the teams ahead of them in the division improved. The reunion between Andrew McCutcheon and the Pirates is going to make for a feel-good story and something we'll watch for all season. The problem is that's about all the good that will likely come from this season. They have good, young players but they lack anything that is going to make them consistently competitive. The Pirates look primed for a third-straight 100-loss season. 

NL West

2022 Review

Final Standings

Los Angeles 111-51 (L 3-1 in the NLDS)

San Diego 89-73 (L 4-1 in the NLCS)

San Francisco 81-81

Arizona 74-88

Colorado 68-94

Los Angeles- The Dodgers are the closest thing to a superteam we have in the league. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts finished 4th and 5th in MVP voting. Julio Urias finished 3rd in Cy Young voting with an NL-best 2.16 ERA. They scored the most runs and had the best ERA in the league. It didn't translate into postseason success, being bounced in the NLDS in four games. 

San Diego- Despite Fernando Tatis Jr missing the entire season, the Padres found a way to make the most of the season. A lot of it was on the back of MVP runner-up Manny Machado. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove served as a tough 1-2 combo in the rotation, earning a Wild Card spot and beating the Dodgers in the NLDS. They fell short in the NLCS but beating the Dodgers in the postseason has to help.

San Francisco- They shocked the world in 2021 by winning the NL West. In 2022, they fell back to Earth by finishing .500 and missing the postseason. As their record suggests, they were middle of the road in most statistics. Logan Webb and Carlos Rodon led the rotation with great records and ERAs of 2.90 or better. They're a slightly aging team that wasn't able to recapture their magic.

Arizona- The record looks lackluster but the promise the Diamondbacks showed can't be ignored. Christian Walker slugged 36 home runs. Daulton Varsho and Jake McCarthy both had solid offensive seasons. The pitching staff brought the team back down, finishing in the bottom ten in ERA. Madison Bumgarner has not found his spark in Arizona, losing 15 games with a 4.88 ERA in 30 starts. 

Colorado- Not even signing Kris Bryant could help the Rockies. Bryant only played 42 games in his first season and I'm not sure he would've been able to save this team. The pitching staff had the worst ERA in the league and allowed the most hits to opponents while finishing in the bottom ten in home runs at a field notorious for having the ball carry. 

2023 Preview

Los Angeles 96-66*

San Diego 90-72*

San Francisco 85-77

Arizona 70-92

Colorado 67-95

As long as the Dodgers put a team on the field, they are going to be the favorite to win the division, the pennant, and even the World Series. While I don't have them finishing with the best record in the NL, they could easily crack 100 wins. They did lose a fair amount of players in free agency yet they still added JD Martinez to a stacked lineup and Noah Syndergaard to a strong rotation. They should win the division, barring the Padres or the Giants winning way more than expected. Top to bottom, the Padres might have a better lineup than the Dodgers, and that's without Fernando Tatis Jr in the starting nine. Once they get him back from his suspension and playing beside Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, they have a legitimate chance at winning the division. If they can get consistent pitching, namely Blake Snell returning to his Cy Young form, the Padres could make the Dodgers sweat a little. The Giants did a lot in the offseason to give them a chance at the postseason, adding Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, and Taylor Rogers to the team. Losing Carlos Rodon is going to be a huge hit to their rotation but they should be able to make a push for the postseason with their offense. I think Arizona is extremely close to finding its magic again. They've already signed top prospect Corbin Carroll to a long-term deal and they have plenty of young prospects waiting in the wings. I think they're in for another slight struggle this season before making some huge steps forward next season. Colorado will remain in the cellar this season even if Kris Bryant comes back and is at his best. They could be in the market to sell a bunch of guys as the season moves along. 

Postseason Predictions

American League

Byes- 1. Houston, 2. New York

AL Wild Card

6. Tampa Bay def. 3. Minnesota, 2-1

4. Toronto def. 5. Seattle, 2-1

ALDS

1. Houston def. 4. Toronto, 3-1

2. New York def. 6. Tampa Bay, 3-1 

ALCS

1. Houston def. 2. New York, 4-3

National League

Byes- 1. Atlanta, 2. Los Angeles

NL Wild Card

3. St. Louis def. 6. New York, 2-0

4. Philadelphia def. 5. San Diego, 2-1

NLDS

1. Atlanta def. Philadelphia, 3-2

2. Los Angeles def. St. Louis, 3-2

NLCS

1. Atlanta def. 2. Los Angeles, 4-2

World Series

Why Houston COULD win the World Series

Outside of doing it last year, Houston has a lot of players returning from their World Series team that know how to get the job done in October. Abreu is a major addition at first base, so when you add that to a group that includes Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and Pena, it only makes them that much more lethal. The real question I have is whether their rotation will miss Verlander a lot at this point in the season. Can Valdez, Javier, or Garcia step up and become the ace of this team to lead this team to another title? I think it's possible that they could and until they figure that out, I'm going to pick them for the pennant before falling just short of another World Series.  

Why Atlanta WILL win the World Series

I think the same question about the Astros finding an ace can be applied to the Braves. While Fired finished second in Cy Young voting in 2022, I still think they lack a noticeable household name. Maybe Wright or Strider could take that next step this season. Offensively, this team has the makings of a juggernaut. Riley and Acuna Jr are both perennial MVP candidates. Olson, Murphy, Harris II, Albies, Ozuna, Rosario, and Grissom all are excellent hitters. They will be the best team in the National League and at the end of the day, they are the team that will be standing at the top of the mountain with their second title in three seasons and the fifth in franchise history.  

Award Predictions

Manager of the Year

AL- Rocco Baldelli (MIN) over John Schneider (TOR) & Aaron Boone (NYY)

NL- Rob Thomson (PHI) over Brian Snitker (ATL) & Bob Melvin (SD)

Rookie of the Year

AL- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) over Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) & Josh Jung (TEX)

NL- Kodai Senga (NYM) over Corbin Carroll (ARI) & Garrett Mitchell (MIL)

Cy Young

AL- Jacob DeGrom (TEX) over Shane Bieber (CLE) & Gerrit Cole (NYY)

NL- Corbin Burnes (MIL) over Aaron Nola (PHI) & Spencer Strider (ATL)

MVP

AL- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) over Shohei Ohtani (LAA) & Aaron Judge (NYY)

NL- Nolen Arenado (STL) over Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) & Manny Machado (SD)