2022-23 NHL Pre-All Star Break Review

The 2022-23 season has reached the All-Star Break, meaning we are getting our first real break of the season without any meaningful hockey. This seems like the best time to look back at the predictions I made during the preseason and see just how wrong I was about everything. It's also the perfect time to change my predictions to fit the current state of the league. There have been a ton of surprises thus far and the second half only seems to promise just as many. Here is where we stand at the halfway point and what I think is going to happen moving forward. 

Atlantic

Preseason Projected Standings

1. Tampa Bay*

2. Toronto*

3. Florida*

4. Ottawa*

5. Buffalo

6. Boston

7. Detroit

8. Montreal

Where I Was Right- There isn't much I felt I got right about the Atlantic, but I do have Toronto in the right spot as of right now. Four Maple Leafs currently have 50+ points, though they'll be without reigning Rocket Richard winner Auston Matthews coming out of the break. I overshot the landing with the Lightning, but they're also in a good spot, sitting in third place by nine points over the Sabres. Speaking of the Sabres, they're just on the outside of the playoffs right now, trailing Pittsburgh by one point for the second Wild Card. Tage Thompson has taken another step forward this season, already tying his career-high in points with 68. In less obvious news, I have been right about the bottom two with Detroit and Montreal bringing up the rear in the Atlantic. 

Where I Was Wrong- The true test of any man is when they can admit they're wrong. I was wrong about the Boston Bruins and I'm willing to admit I oversold how much their early-season injuries would hurt them. They won 17 of their first 19 games and have three win streaks of 6+ games thus far. They are running away with the President's Trophy right now behind 38 goals from David Pastrnak, 2nd most in the league. Everyone else in the division is basically racing for second at this point. I also gave the Panthers and Senators way too hype. I didn't think the Panthers were going to replicate their President's Trophy season but this has been slightly underwhelming. They're within striking distance of a playoff spot though, so their season isn't over yet. The Senators have arguably been the biggest disappointment in my eyes. I was fully on the bandwagon for them at the start of the season. They still have a chance but it's a slim one at best. 

New Predicted Finish

1. Boston*

2. Toronto*

3. Tampa Bay*

4. Buffalo

5. Florida

6. Detroit

7. Ottawa

8. Montreal

No one is catching the Bruins unless Boston loses several in a row and either Toronto or Tampa Bay catches fire. This is the only division that I think the top three are already set except who gets home ice between the Leafs and Lightning. The Sabres will remain the most intriguing story of the second half as they try to break their postseason drought. They have one of the best offenses in the league so there is still plenty of hope for them. I think they have a decent shot but think they'll fall just on the outside. I think the Panthers will also come close to making the playoffs with their goaltending being the biggest reason. The only real movement I have is Detroit leapfrogging Ottawa though it won't have much bearing on the playoffs or the race for Connor Bedard. The Canadiens will be in the running for the first pick as they continue to rebuild. 

Metropolitan

Preseason Projected Standings

1. New York (R)*

2. Carolina*

3. Pittsburgh*

4. New York (I)*

5. Washington

6. New Jersey

7. Columbus

8. Philadelphia

Where I Was Right- The Metropolitan Division remains one of the most competitive divisions in the league. Three of the four teams I predicted to make the playoffs are currently in a position to make it. The Hurricanes lead the division and while I picked them to finish second, the overall idea was that they'd be near the top.  The Capitals and Penguins are both in the hunt right now, holding both Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference. The Blue Jackets have been just as bad as I expected with the addition of Johnny Gaudreau not overcoming the shortcomings brought on by injuries and terrible goaltending. 

Where I Was Wrong- The Devils have been one of the surprises in the league this season, holding first place in the division for most of October, November, and December thanks to a month-long 13-game win streak. They are ahead of their rebuild now as they fight for first place with the Hurricanes. The Rangers, the team New Jersey would play in the first round, haven't been quite the success I thought they'd be after making it to the conference finals last season. They're still in a good position to make a run. The Islanders sit in sixth right now largely because they aren't scoring enough, even with outstanding goaltending from Ilya Sorokin. The Flyers haven't been as bad as I expected, though most of the headlines surrounding them have come off of the ice. While they're seventh in the division, they still have 51 points and technically have a chance. 

New Predicted Finish

1. Carolina*

2. New York (R)*

3. New Jersey*

4. Pittsburgh*

5. Washington*

6. New York (I)

7. Philadelphia

8. Columbus

After being the hottest team in the league for the last two months, this division seems to be in Carolina's control. They're likely to get plenty of competition from the Devils and Rangers, but they seem ready to take on all comers. My biggest change is for second and third in the division. I've decided to have the Rangers jump the Devils. While the Devils have a six-point lead over the Rangers, there comes a point where a team with the experience of the Rangers outclasses the Devils' lack of experience. I think these two are finishing in the top three, but I think New Jersey will be visiting Madison Square Garden to open the first round. The Wild Card race remains the most interesting with five teams fighting for two spots. As long as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are in this league, I think they'll be able to find their way to the postseason, even after the Islanders traded for Bo Horvat. I struggle with the Islanders because they don't score at a strong enough pace to compete with the teams around them. I think the Flyers will find a way to play close to .500 hockey for the rest of the season as they slowly fall out of the picture. Columbus is another team in the Bedard sweepstakes, currently holding the best odds at the top pick. They'll be there when the lottery comes around. 

Central

Preseason Projected Standings

1. Colorado*

2. St. Louis*

3. Dallas*

4. Nashville*

5. Minnesota

6. Winnipeg

7. Arizona

8. Chicago

Where I Was Right- This is the one division that I completely misjudged. Only one team is currently in a playoff spot that I predicted and that's the Dallas Stars. Jason Robertson is currently tied for 5th in goals (33). Jake Oettinger is top five in the league in wins (21), GAA (2.26) and save percentage (.923). They have the second-best defense in the league while their offense is in the top ten. They are in a tight race for the lead in the division and will easily make the playoffs. While they aren't quite in a playoff spot, Nashville is right on the verge thanks to Juuse Saros. Their offense is 7th-worst in the league but their defense is in the top half of the league. They have a fighting chance of making it. I was right about the Blackhawks and the Coyotes but that didn't take much thinking. They're the second and fourth-worst teams in the league and I don't see much room for improvement there. 

Where I Was Wrong- The better question is what wasn't I wrong about? The reigning champions and my pick to win the division are the second Wild Card team. My second-place pick hasn't cracked 50 points and is eight points out of a playoff spot. I think the Blues are unlikely to make the playoffs at this point. I'm worried about the Avalanche but they have plenty of pieces and a good defense that will likely be fine. Winnipeg's offseason turmoil distracted me from realizing just how good they still are. Mark Scheifele is already over 30 goals. Connor Hellebuyck has returned to his Vezina form. They're second in the division and tied for 3rd in the league in wins. They're on a path to make the postseason and have surprised me quite a bit. The Wild have slightly exceeded my expectations in a tougher division. Kirill Kaprizov continues to score a ton of goals and they'll likely be a tough out in the playoffs. 

New Predicted Finish

1. Dallas*

2. Winnipeg*

3. Colorado*

4. Minnesota*

5. Nashville

6. St. Louis

7. Arizona

8. Chicago

The numbers to this point for the Stars and Jets make it hard to decide who is going to likely win the division right now. They are only separated by decimals in most major categories. I'm sticking with the Stars over the Jets because I think they are only marginally better in all three aspects of the game. I think the Stars will find more consistent scoring to scratch and claw for the division crown. The Avalanche are due to get back into this race. The amount of firepower they possess and they'll get healthy enough to avoid the Wild Card spot and earn a date with Winnipeg. The fight down the stretch between Minnesota and Nashville is going to be a tight one. Just like with the race for first place, the differences between these two teams are also small. Seeing as the Predators can't score goals, I sticking with Minnesota, leaving Nashville just on the outside. I think St. Louis has played itself into a corner and I don't think they can get out of it, though they've done it before. Arizona and Chicago will continue to sit at the bottom and while they may swap spots, it won't really matter except when deciding the top pick. 

Pacific

Preseason Projected Standings

1. Los Angeles*

2. Calgary*

3. Edmonton*

4. Vancouver*

5. Vegas

6. Seattle

7. Anaheim

8. San Jose

Where I Was Right- While technically fourth in the division by points percentage, Los Angeles is tied with Seattle for first in the division with 63 points. They haven't gotten it through their goaltending like I thought but the offense has picked up the slack and is keeping the Kings at the top. The Oilers are exactly what I thought they'd be. McDavid leads the league with 41 goals, 51 assists, and 92 points. Draisaitl is right behind him with 78 points. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins both have 20+ goals and 60 points. Jack Campbell hasn't played well but Stuart Skinner has stepped up in his place. As has been the case with the rest of the league, the bottom two were also easy to predict though I have them reversed. San Jose has struggled to win but they'll likely have the Norris Trophy winner with Erik Karlsson's resurgence. Anaheim is the only team in the league with single-digit wins in regulation (7).

Where I Was Wrong- Seattle and Vancouver are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to how I predicted their seasons would go. The Kraken have taken huge strides in their second season and look to be on their way to a postseason berth. The Canucks have already thrown in the towel, firing their head coach and trading a 30-goal scorer. They have the 2nd-worst defense in the league and unless something drastic happens and the teams in front of them decide to stop playing this season, they aren't making the playoffs. I also discounted Vegas' ability to get back into the postseason after missing it for the first time last season. They've rebounded nicely and are just one point behind the Kraken and Kings for the division lead. The Flames haven't been the same team they were last season, likely due to the major losses they suffered in Gaudreau and Tkachuk. The Flames are outside of the playoffs right now, though they're tied for the second Wild Card spot. 

New Predicted Finish

1. Vegas*

2. Edmonton*

3. Los Angeles*

4. Seattle*

5. Calgary

6. Vancouver

7. San Jose

8. Anaheim

This is my most out-of-the-box prediction because the division is so hard to call right now. The top four are separated by three points, so it's anyone's game. I decided on Vegas to win the division because I think they're the strongest team defensively. The injury to Mark Stone makes it complicated and Logan Thompson doesn't have much experience but this is the team that will get Jack Eichel to his first postseason. I've then picked Edmonton for second because their offense is too good. They've proven they can outscore their defensive struggles and will do that down the stretch. Los Angeles' struggles in the net are going to be a problem if not addressed but I'll take their offense to get them in as well. Having Seattle as a Wild Card team might seem like a large drop and I'll admit it might be. They lack experience as a team in this area and while I think they'll make the playoffs, it's time for them to be brought back down to Earth a little. This leaves Calgary as the odd team out after a strong season. The Flames will likely be the last team out with just a slim difference between them and the Kraken. The bottom three are still pretty clear. The Canucks will trade most of their team, the Sharks will ride Karlsson until they trade Meier, and the Ducks will be at the bottom with a good chance of getting Bedard. 

Ten Stories to Watch in the Second Half

1. Can the Bruins keep their pace?- Boston is on pace to break the NHL records in wins (62) and points (132), so they are going to be under a microscope for their final 31 games. They'll need 24 wins and 50 of a possible 62 points to do it. They've slowed down a little bit and I personally don't think they will, though it doesn't take away from the excitement of the potential history being made. 

2. Tanking for Connor- Right now, five teams are firmly in the running to tank for Connor Bedard. Chicago, Columbus, Anaheim, Arizona, and San Jose all are excellent at losing as they try to go for another special Connor eight years after McDavid was drafted in 2015. Personally, I'm hoping for Arizona to get Bedard so they'll have something to look forward to when they get a new arena.

3. The Race for the Pacific Division- As I pointed out earlier, Seattle, Los Angeles, Vegas, and Edmonton are separated by just three points, each with 60+ points. This race is the highest in the league and has implications for the Wild Card race as well. I'm picking Vegas to come out on top over the other three teams, though it's realistically anyone's race to win.

4. Which major names move at the trade deadline?- The NHL trade deadline is my personal favorite of all the major sports because anything can happen. There are so many huge names that could be moved this year and I'm excited to see who goes where and which players add to a postseason run. It seems like there are more big names on the board this year than in seasons past.

5. Are the Avs in trouble?- The defending champs are barely hanging on to a playoff spot at the moment as they're tied with Calgary for the second Wild Card in the west. Colorado has dealt with their fair share of injuries this season, so that might be part of the reason for their struggles. I think they'll be fine and will make the playoffs but they'll need to find a way to right the ship.

6. Hurricanes v. Devils- Unless the Rangers go on a heater, the race in the Metropolitan Division will likely come down to the Canes and the Devils. They've been jockeying for the top spot all season and after the Canes beat the Devils in December, it's been their division to lose. They sit eight points up right now with the Devils having two games in hand and one head-to-head meeting left. 

7. How far can McDavid go?- I don't think there's any question that McDavid is likely to win the Art Ross since he has 92 points in 50 games. The question is how many points can he score. He's on pace for 151 points assuming he stays healthy, which would be the 16th most in NHL history. I don't think he's going to do it while he's definitely going to set a new career-high in goals.  

8. The Sabres' push for a Wild Card spot- It has been 11 seasons since the city of Buffalo has experienced postseason hockey, which is currently an NHL record. Right now, they're one point out of a playoff spot. They have the offense to get back to the playoffs but I'm curious about whether their goaltending can get them there. For that reason, I think they'll fall just short before making it next year. 

9. The Rocket Richard- The leader in the clubhouse in goals is McDavid (41) at the moment but there are some excellent scorers right behind him. There are nine forwards with 30+ goals but only David Pastrnak (38) is in the ballpark. It's hard to pick against McDavid since you know he's going to be in the middle of everything for the Oilers. 

10. Alex Ovechkin Goal Watch- For the 17th time in his 18-year career, Ovechkin has hit 30 goals. He's already passed Gordie Howe for second all-time in goals, leaving only Wayne Gretzky in front of him. There's no way he breaks Gretzky's record, so it'll be about how close he can position himself before next season. He's 82 goals back right now.

Updated Postseason Predictions

First Round

(A1) Boston v. (WC2) Washington- Boston 4-1

(A2) Toronto v. (A3) Tampa Bay- Toronto 4-3

(M1) Carolina v. (WC1) Pittsburgh- Carolina 4-1

(M2) New York (R) v. (M3) New Jersey- New York 4-3

(C1) Dallas v. (WC2) Minnesota- Dallas 4-2

(C2) Winnipeg v. (C3) Colorado- Colorado 4-3

(P1) Vegas v. (WC1) Seattle- Vegas 4-2

(P2) Edmonton v. (P3) Los Angeles- Edmonton 4-2

Second Round

(A1) Boston v. (A2) Toronto- Boston 4-2

(M1) Carolina v. (M2) New York (R)- Carolina 4-3

(C1) Dallas v. (C3) Colorado- Dallas 4-3

(P1) Vegas v. (P2) Edmonton- Edmonton 4-2

Conference Finals

(A1) Boston v. (M1) Carolina- Boston 4-3

(C1) Dallas v. (P2) Edmonton- Dallas 4-2

Stanley Cup Final

(A1) Boston v. (C1) Dallas- Dallas 4-3

Updated Awards Predictions

Preseason Jack Adams- DJ Smith (OTT) over Craig Berube (STL) & Peter DeBoer (DAL)

Updated Jack Adams- Jim Montgomery (BOS) over Peter DeBoer (DAL) & Lindy Ruff (NJD)

Out of all of my preseason predictions, this one probably aged the poorest thanks largely to the Senators not playing well. For as well as Boston is going at the moment, it seems like Montgomery should be the winner. They're dominating the league right now with only seven regulation losses and 12 losses overall in 51 games. There are a couple of other coaches that could fall behind him but I'm taking DeBoer and Ruff as my runner-ups with Ruff likely pulling ahead if the Devils win the division. 

Preseason Selke- Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN) over Aleksander Barkov (FLA) & Ryan O'Reilly (STL)

Updated Selke- Patrice Bergeron (BOS) over Jordan Staal (CAR) & Mitch Marner (TOR)

The Selke is the only award that I really don't know how it's going to play out, so I'm taking the safe bet on Bergeron since he's won it five times in his career and always seems to be in the running. He's been a finalist for the last 11 seasons, including last year when he won it. Who finishes behind him can be decided by pulling names from a hat because there isn't much rhyme or reason. I think Staal deserves more respect and Marner is getting it done on both ends. 

Preseason Rocket Richard- Auston Matthews (TOR) over Leon Draisaitl (EDM) & Kyle Conner (WPG)

Updated Rocket Richard- Connor McDavid (EDM) over David Pastrnak (BOS) & Jason Robertson (DAL)

I not just picking McDavid because he's in the lead right now, it's largely because you know the Oilers' offense is going to center around him and Draisaitl. With the Oilers' power play currently ranked the best in the league and McDavid being a large part of that, he will likely score a lot more. There are a few players with 30+ goals that could be in the running here. I think Pastrnak is the obvious choice since he's the closest to McDavid now and Robertson is going to catch fire post-break. 

Preseason Art Ross- Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over Connor McDavid (EDM) & Nikita Kucherov (TBL)

Updated Art Ross- Connor McDavid (EDM) over Leon Draisaitl (EDM) & Nikita Kucherov (TBL)

After McDavid hit 100 points during the shortened season in 2021, I thought we'd seen him do something extraordinary. Right now, he's sitting at 92 points in 50 games, which is one more than he had through 50 in 2021 and significantly more than he had at this point last season when he scored a career-high 123 points. Barring a catastrophic injury, this is McDavid's race to lose. Kucherkov is my long shot right now and Draisaitl, while 14 points behind McDavid, will be just as present in the Oilers' offense. 

Preseason Calder- Mason McTavish (ANA) over Matty Beniers (SEA) & Owen Power (BUF)

Updated Calder- Matty Beniers (SEA) over Logan Thompson (VGK) & Mason McTavish (ANA)

I thought I picked McTavish during the preseason was me trying to buck the trend of picking the obvious choice. It turns out, the obvious choice is likely the right one. Beniers leads all rookies in goals (17) and points (36) and is in the top three for the Kraken in both while helping them sit in a playoff spot at the moment. The race for the Calder is going to be very tight. If Thompson can lead his team to the postseason, it might just be his to lose. 

Preseason Norris- Cale Makar (COL) over Adam Fox (NYR) & Miro Heiskanen (DAL)

Updated Norris- Erik Karlsson (SJ) over Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) & Cale Makar (COL)

Since his trade to San Jose from Ottawa, Karlsson's lack of production has often been the butt. Seemingly out of nowhere, he's returned to the form that has helped him win two Norris trophies in his career. He heads all defensemen in goals (16), assists (50), and points (66) by a solid margin. He has some stiff competition for his third win with guys like Dahlin, Makar, Morrissey, Fox, and many more on his tail. This is the most exciting race to watch at the moment. 

Preseason Vezina- Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) over Jonathan Quick (LAK) & Igor Shesterkin (NYR)

Updated Vezina- Linus Ullmark (BOS) over Jake Oettinger (DAL) & Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)

With Ullmark's current pace, he's going to run away with this award. He's the only eligible goalie with a GAA under 2.00 (1.90), a save percentage over .935 (.937), and leads the league in wins (26), while only losing five times in 33 games. Other goalies are playing well, but none of them are playing on his level this season. This has the potential to get interesting if Ullmark's play does decline and I think the Central Division has some interesting options. 

Preseason Hart- Leon Draisaitl (EDM) over Auston Matthews (TOR) & Cale Makar (COL)

Updated Hart- Connor McDavid (EDM) over David Pastrnak (BOS) & Jack Hughes (NJD)

After McDavid finished with 123 points last season, the argument against him winning was that Auston Matthews scored 60 goals. If he breaks 130 points and scores 60 goals, this should be a unanimous decision. I think both numbers are very possible for him and this is going to be a runaway train. Pastrnak and Hughes can make good arguments but at the end of the day, the league's generational talent is going to take this with his eyes closed.