2022-23 Carolina Hurricanes: Pre-All Star Break Review (& Post-Break Preview)

The Canes at the Break

Through 51 games this season, the Hurricanes are 34-9-8 with 76 points. Their 34 wins and 76 points are each 2nd in the league as they lead the Metropolitan Division by eight points over the New Jersey Devils. They've played a league-leading 18 overtime games this season, proving to have a flair for the dramatic. They have scored 170 goals, 9th in the league, and average 3.33 goals per game, 10th-best. The defense is getting the job done on both ends of the ice. The Canes' defensive core leads the league in goals scored and the team as a whole has allowed the 6th-fewest in the league, is 4th in goals allowed per game and allows the fewest shots per game. Special teams have been a bumpy ride for the Canes this season. The power play has been the biggest source of concern for most of the fanbase. With its recent success, it has hit 20%, placing it 22nd in the league. The penalty kill has been more consistent and is starting to show signs of last season's success. They've killed 81.9% of their penalties this season, the 8th-best in the league, and lead the league with ten short-handed goals. This year's team has also rewritten the record books for the Hurricanes/Whalers franchise. From 11/25 to 1/1, the team earned points in 17 straight games, including a franchise-record 11-game win streak. This has helped them go 24-3-3 in their last 30 games. They have positioned themselves in an excellent spot to not only win the division and make the playoffs but to win the conference and contend for the Stanley Cup.

Forward Evaluations

The offensive production has largely been driven by three players but not the three I expected during the preseason. This season's breakout star has clearly been Martin Necas. At the break, he leads the team in points (47) and is 2nd in both goals (21) and assists (26). He's already set a new career-high in goals and points with a new high in assists likely to come soon. The two other stars are the same ones that we've come to expect a lot from. Sebastian Aho is a point behind Necas in large part to a massive 11-goal, 17-point January. He leads the team with 23 goals despite missing seven games with an injury. Andrei Svechnikov rounds out the trio with 40+ points, currently 3rd with 19 goals and 42 points. He represented the team at the All-Star game, the first of his career. Aho and Svechnikov are two of the nine players in the league with multiple hat tricks.

One line has remained constant throughout the season, playing in 47 of the 51 games together and they've been very good. The trio of Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, and Jesper Fast have played against each team's best line almost every night they step on the ice. Staal and Martinook are tied for fifth on the team with 25 points and Fast is on the verge of joining a dozen players with 20+ points with 19 right now. Staal has been very good at getting clutch goals when needed and he's been rewarded with 14 goals, the 4th-most on the team. Martinook is right behind him with 11 goals, including the second hat trick of his career in St. Louis in early December. The next point he scores will set a new career high. Fast hasn't scored at the rate of his linemates, but he's getting his job done well. He's been an invaluable penalty killer and he leads the team with three short-handed assists. 

While there are plenty of players that are playing well, some guys haven't produced the amount we'd expect them to. Teuvo Teravainen is at the top of that list not because he isn't scoring points, but because he's not putting the puck in the back of the net much. While he did get hurt and miss about a month, it took him 20 games to record his first goal. He has just five goals this season, all of which have come on special teams. He's made up for it by picking up 19 assists. Seth Jarvis has hit a bit of a wall in his sophomore campaign. After 17 goals and 40 points last season, Jarvis only has eight goals and 24 points, suffering from scoring droughts at times. In the first season of an eight-year contract, Jesperi Kotkaniemi hasn't quite found his scoring touch yet, though he is close to touching his numbers from last season. He's bounced up and down the lineup at times, managing to score 20 points. 

The fourth line has seen a few different iterations this season, often with Kotkaniemi at the center of it all. When he's playing at a different spot in the lineup, Paul Stastny is usually playing up the middle. In his first season as a Hurricane, Stastny hasn't found the scoring that he's had in other stops during his career, scoring just five goals and 16 points. He's playing a little better in 2023 with four of his five goals coming in the new year. Derek Stepan has found a lot of playing time after earning a contract off of a tryout in the offseason. He has five goals and eight points in 45 games playing under nine minutes per game. Stefan Noesen has arguably been the team's biggest revelation. After tearing up the AHL last season, Noesen has found a home on this team, serving a major role on the power play. He's tied with Necas with six power-play goals and is tied with Staal and Martinook with 25 points. He's another player likely to break his career high in points and goals. 

Three other forwards have played this season with the team. Max Pacioretty, after rupturing his Achilles during the offseason, made his team debut in January and he scored two goals in his second game. Unfortunately, in just his fifth game, Pacioretty re-tore his Achilles, forcing him out of action for the rest of the season. He scored three goals in his five games, giving the fans some good memories before his injury. Jack Drury played in 21 games for various different reasons as players missed time due to injury. He recorded two assists, the first two of his career, before being sent back down to Chicago. Another offseason addition, Ondrej Kase played in the season opener but suffered another concussion in the process. He's yet to return to the ice in a game and it's uncertain whether he will this season. 

Defensemen Evaluations

The group of defensemen has largely remained the same all season with the same six guys playing the lion's share of the games in the same pairs. They have one of the best top-fours in the league and the numbers back that up. The top pair has remained Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin until the latter's recent injury. Burns paces the defensemen with 37 goals while he's tied for the team lead with ten goals. He's also tied with Necas for the team lead with 16 power-play points. He'll enter the second half on a seven-game point streak. Slavin's offensive output has decreased this season but he remains just as strong defensively. He's missed the last six games with an injury, so the break should allow him to get back to normal. 

The second pair has arguably been the Canes' best and most consistent. Brady Skjei already has a new career high in goal with ten, tying him with Burns among the defense. He leads the defenders in power-play goals. Skjei has proven that the production levels he saw in 2022 weren't just a one-off as he continues to find the net in 2023. Brett Pesce has been by his side the entire season and he's on pace to break his career-highs in assists and points. He has 21 points right now, third among the defensemen, and he'll make it to 30 points for sure. 

The third pair has been very surprising, especially Jalen Chatfield. He entered the season with zero goals in his career. We waited impatiently for him to finally get the first one and once he scored, he couldn't stop. He's third among the defensemen with five goals and all 11 of his points have come in the last 22 games. He's stepped into a larger role with Slavin on the shelf, playing very well alongside Burns. Most of Chatfield's season has been played with Calvin de Haan, another player signed after earning a tryout in the offseason. de Haan has two goals and nine points in his return to the Hurricanes after he was traded by Carolina three years ago. 

Dylan Coghlan has been in and out of the lineup this season, though he has been playing more consistently since Slavin's injury. He has three assists in 17 games and has gone through some rough patches when he's seen some action. Maxime Lajoie is the only other defender to see action with the Canes, being held scoreless in two games. 

Goalie Evaluations

The Canes have used three goalies and all three have been spectacular. The group of Antti Raanta (13), Frederik Andersen (11), and Pyotr Kochetkov (10) is the 14th trio in NHL history to each record 10+ wins in a season and they did it quicker than any other group. Whenever a goalie went down, another stepped up and filled the role while the team continued to win. Andersen started the season as the starter and he wasn't his normal self. After he allowed a goal in each of his first two starts, Andersen allowed 12 goals in his next three and would start the year 5-3-0. Following a 3-1 loss to Toronto in early November, Andersen suffered a lower-body injury that would put him on the shelf for over two months. This injury would thrust Raanta into the starting job and Kochetkov would re-join the team as the backup. The team would endure some growing pains with the change and while it didn't come easy, Raanta would get the job done. A little under a month later, Raanta would be pulled from a game against the Blues, giving Kochetkov his chance to shine. He'd been playing well in his backup role, but he reached a new level. With Raanta missing two weeks, Kochetkov embarked on the longest shutout streak for a rookie goalie in franchise history, passing 150 minutes, as he recorded back-to-back shutouts. When Raanta did come back, he came back with a vengeance. Just as Kochetkov had done, he recorded back-to-back shutouts in the final two games of 2022. His momentum would come to an end but it would come in time for Andersen to return from his injury with Kochetkov heading back to Chicago. Since returning from injury, Andersen is 6-0-0 with a .919 SV%. Raanta hasn't lost a game in regulation since November, going 10-0-2 during this stretch. For a team that won the Jennings Trophy last season, they've found some magic once again. 

Revisiting My Predictions From the Preseason

1. Max Pacioretty will be a point-per-game player once he returns- When he returned to the lineup in early January, there was a lot of anticipation. Unfortunately, the ride didn't last long. Though he scored three goals in five games, he re-tore his Achilles and is done for the season. On the surface, my prediction was wrong but the sample size was too small. 

2. The penalty kill is even better this season, topping last season's kill percentage- Last year, the kill was nearly unbeatable. They led the league by killing 88% of the penalties they took. This season, it hasn't been quite the same, only killing 81.9%. There is still time for it to reach the heights it did a year ago, but it'll likely fall short. 

3. We'll see multiple hat tricks this season in the regular season- This one is an overwhelming "yes" because they've already scored five this season. They're tied for the league lead with Winnipeg with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov scoring two each and Jordan Martinook adding one. I think we could see a few more in the final 31 games. 

4. The Hurricanes will have at least 2 All-Stars again this season-Despite having the second-best record in the league, the Canes only had one All-Star this season, which is genuinely criminal. Andrei Svechnikov was designated as the team's representative. Despite an excellent push by the fanbase, Martin Necas was left out though the league never released the numbers. 

5. The Hurricanes beat the Capitals in the Stadium Series Game at Carter-Finley Stadium- This one is unresolved since the game hasn't happened yet but I'm sticking with it. The preparations for the stadium have begun just under two weeks before the Canes and Caps collide in Raleigh. It is going to be an amazing time and I'm looking forward to it greatly. 

6. Burns and Slavin will both score 50+ points this season- I think it's more than possible for Burns to reach 50 points but it would take a minor miracle for Slavin to get there. Slavin has only 15 points this season and is going to be coming off of an injury. It's possible that he could get there, but I think 30 points is going to be a more realistic goal. 

7. Aho and Svechnikov will be the first duo to score 35+ goals in the same season with the team- There is a chance that goal-scoring history is made this season, though I'm not sure Aho and Svechnikov will be the two to do it. Aho has 23 goals and Svechnikov has 19, but Necas also has 21 and could be the other player to do it. I think one of them will make it to 35, I'm just not sure whether a second one will. 

8. Seth Jarvis scores 60+ points and finishes Top 5 on the team- It hasn't been the second season I expected it to be for Jarvis after jumping into the deep end last season and surviving. With only 24 points, he'll need 36 points in 31 games and remain healthy the entire time to reach 60. He could catch fire after the break and come close but I don't think he'll make it. 

9. The Hurricanes will finish in the Top 2 of the Division, Top 6 in the League in Points- If things hold true and there's a chance they will, the Canes will win the division for the third straight season and will finish second to the Bruins in points. It's more likely they'll finish somewhere in the top five overall, so the point will remain. 

10. The Hurricanes will represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final- Right now, it feels like the Canes and Bruins are on a collision course to meet in the Eastern Conference Final, though that's far from a guarantee. In a seven-game series, it's a toss-up for me. I would lean in Boston's favor, even after the Canes' 4-1 win, but there's no wrong choice. 

What to Watch for After the All-Star Break

1. The Stadium Series against Washington- All eyes will be on Raleigh on February 18 when outdoor hockey makes its way to North Carolina. We've been waiting for this game forever and now the time has come. I'll be at the game and I haven't been this excited about a game in a long time. 

2. The Trade Deadline- The Canes have been connected to a bunch of names ahead of the March deadline. The most intriguing name to me is Timo Meier, though it would likely require an extension. Dylan Larkin, Ryan O'Reilly, and Vladimir Tarasenko have also been floating around. 

3. The continued brilliance of Martin Necas- With 47 points, Necas leads the team in scoring, one point ahead of Aho. He's been the biggest surprise this season and now he needs to prove it's not a fluke. I don't believe it is and think he could easily make it to 70 points. 

4. Turning defense to offense- Burns and Skjei already have double-digit goals and the core as a whole has 34 goals. Under Brind'Amour, the defense often jumps into the offense and they've been front and center. The Canes will need everyone to provide something to remain in the position they're in. 

5. Can the goalies continue this level of play?- It feels like no matter how well or how poorly the team is playing, the goalies are still winning games. None of the three goalies that have played this season have more than four losses in regulation while winning 10+ games.

6. The power play- The most obvious flaw in the Canes' DNA right now is their power play. It has seen a few different iterations this season but it continues to lack consistency. The power play is five for its last ten, so maybe that's a sign that things are improving. 

7. Who steps up offensively?- We know who the stars of the team are and the Canes have gotten excellent scoring depth. It still doesn't mean that guys can't step it up. I'm looking for Jarvis, Teravainen, and Kotkaniemi to be those players to have a huge second half. 

8. Making up ground on Boston- Both teams have played 51 games and Boston holds a seven-point lead in the standings. There is still one meeting between the teams left so the Canes will need to find every point they can if they want to win their first President's Trophy. 

9. The race for the division- The Canes and Devils have gone to war three times this season and there is still one meeting left. The Canes hold a multi-game lead over the Devils, though New Jersey has a few games in hand. The Rangers could make a push but this is the Canes' race to lose. 

10. The postseason- I know they haven't clinched a berth to the postseason but they'll be there barring a major catastrophe. This team's success will be based on their postseason run to most people inside and outside of the fanbase. This team has what it takes to win it all. Now, it's just a matter of doing.