2022-23 Regular Season, Game 17: Hurricanes (10-5-1) v. Colorado Avalanche

I've stated before that I'm not a huge fan of these cross-conference games concluding so early in the season, but here we are again. Following a 3-0 win over Chicago on Monday night, the Hurricanes are back at home with the defending champions paying them a visit just five days after the two sides met in Denver. The Canes' win over the Blackhawks wasn't the prettiest of wins, yet they held Chicago off the board thanks in large part to Pyotr Kochetkov. The Russian goalie stopped all 27 shots that he faced to earn his first-career shutout victory and his second win in as many starts. The Staal line continued to pace the offense as both Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook scored in the first period and assisted on each other's goals along with Brent Burns with two assists of his own. Jesper Fast helped set up Andrei Svechnikov's goal by knocking down a pass as Svechnikov beat Petr Mrazek to make it 3-0, where it would stay. They're back at home after a few days with a huge task ahead of them. The bad taste is still in their mouth from the game in Colorado, but the venue has changed. 

Projected Lines/Pairs
Stefan Noesen-Sebastian Aho-Seth Jarvis
Andrei Svechnikov-Jesperi Kotkaniemi-Martin Necas
Jordan Martinook-Jordan Staal-Jesper Fast
Jack Drury-Paul Stastny-Derek Stepan

Jaccob Slavin-Brent Burns
Brady Skjei-Brett Pesce
Calvin de Haan-Jalen Chatfield

Antti Raanta
Pyotr Kochetkov

Healthy Scratches- Dylan Coghlan, 
IR- Ondrej Kase (upper-body injury), Teuvo Teravainen (upper-body injury), Frederik Andersen (lower-body injury)

With Maxime Lajoie staying in Chicago to rejoin the AHL team, Calvin de Haan will return to the lineup tonight with Dylan Coghlan serving as the only healthy extra. Rod Brind'Amour stated yesterday that none of the guys on IR was close to being ready yet, so we'll wait to see how much longer they'll be out. Antti Raanta will be back in the net tonight. He last played in the Colorado game five days ago, allowing three goals in the 4-1 loss. Despite the losing effort, he played really well. The forward groups will remain the same as Monday night. Tonight will be Andrei Svechnikov's 300th NHL game. 

Tonight's Opponent: Colorado Avalanche (8-5-1, 17 points, 3rd in the Central Division)
Not a whole lot has changed for Colorado since I wrote about them last. After they faced the Canes, they played on Monday night, like Carolina did. Despite the best efforts of a red-hot Mikko Rantanen, the Avalanche dropped a 3-2 decision to the St. Louis Blues. Rantanen scored a goal and assisted on Colorado's other goal and though Alexander Georgiev made 36 saves, Jordan Binnington was just better, making 45 saves for the Blues. Cale Makar also had a multi-point night, providing the secondary assists on both goals. The loss broke their four-game win streak and their visit to Raleigh marks the beginning of a three-game road trip that will also feature stops in Washington D.C. and Dallas. They'll roll a very similar lineup to the one they did on Saturday night, with a few small changes. 
Last Meeting v. Carolina- There's no sense in belaboring the point too much since it was less than a week ago that they last played. It was the Mikko Rantanen show for 60 minutes as played a factor on all four goals for the Avalanche in their win last Saturday. He had the primary assist on both goals in the first period from Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon's goal in the third period before scoring into the empty net to put the game away. The Staal line combined for the Canes' only goal of the night in the second period which would be finished by Jordan Staal on a 2-on-1 to break the shutout and breathe some life into the Canes before being outscored 2-0 in the third period. 
Colorado's Starting Goalie: Pavel Francouz- We'll be getting the same goalie matchup that we did in Denver with Francouz in the net once again. Francouz stopped 24 shots in the 4-1 victory, earning his first win of the season in his fourth start. He's now a perfect 2-0-0 against the Hurricanes, allowing just three goals. The strong start felt like it could be the start of a big turnaround for him as he tries to get something going. 
Colorado Player to Watch: Evan Rodrigues- It felt like Rodrigues' name was being said a lot during their win on Saturday night. He tied his season-high with five shots against the Canes before doing it again against the Blues on Monday night. He is usually parked in front of the net at the top of the crease, so look for him to try and bang some pucks home if Raanta's rebound control becomes a problem tonight. 

Scoring Summary
1st Period
(COL) 7:20- Evan Rodrigues (6) PP (unassisted) 
2nd Period
(CAR) 7:14- Sebastian Aho (8) (assisted by Martin Necas (13))
(COL) 14:20- Alex Newhook (3) (assisted by Josh Manson (2) & Erik Johnson (4))
3rd Period
(CAR) 10:23- Martin Necas (8) (assisted by Jaccob Slavin (4))
Overtime
(COL) 1:55 - Artturi Lehkonen (5) (assisted by JT Compher (4) & Devon Toews (10))

Let's Talk About the Game
If you were to ask any fan that lived through the decade-long postseason drought what they thought of this game, they'd likely tell you that this game felt like many of those games did. The Canes dominated play for the majority of the three periods in pretty much every facet of the game, only to lose the game in some fashion. The Canes outshot Colorado 48-15. The Avalanche didn't have more than six shots in a period all night, yet they had as many shots in overtime as they did in the third period and scored the last goal tonight. They dominated while keeping Colorado's playmakers in check. Mikko Rantanen (1 SOG) was a non-factor. Nathan MacKinnon (3 SOG) was off the scoresheet. Cale Makar (32:48 TOI) probably played in the game at some point and didn't do much. For the second time in a row, Pavel Francouz was the difference. Just to break down his night, he was a perfect 12-12 in the first period, 16-17 in the second period because Noesen screened him well to allow Sebastian Aho to rip one past him, 17-18 in the third period with Martin Necas outwaiting him after Francouz was run into by his own teammate and he lost his stick, then stopped the only shot he faced in overtime. The Canes really earned one of their goals and got help from a defenseman that only played 8:26 tonight to force overtime and earn a point in a game that they should've won in regulation. 

Another reason Colorado won this game is that they executed on the power play, something the Canes have failed to do. It was a broken play, but the puck found its way to Evan Rodrigues. He spun around and surprised Antti Raanta as Colorado took an early lead. The Canes' power plays in the first period were spectacularly horrendous. I was lulled to sleep on the first one and the second one only produced one good chance with Francouz robbing Aho. The Canes should've taken the game over midway through the second period. 17 seconds after Aho scored the game-tying goal, Colorado was guilty of a penalty, giving the Canes their third power play of the night. For the first time, they really looked like they knew what they were doing. The first unit moved the puck well and Andrei Svechnikov rang one off the inside of the post. Colorado would kill it, but this felt like a missed opportunity. A few minutes later, Alex Newhook would score on a breakaway as he beat Necas in a race before beating Raanta cleanly late in the period. The Canes went into the second intermission down a goal despite an insane edge in play. 

For as dominant as they'd been through 40 minutes, the Hurricanes looked unbelievable in the third period. Even with Brent Burns taking the only penalty of the period, the play in end in front of Francouz the entire time. As I alluded to earlier, the Canes tied the game because Francouz was run into Andreas Englund, forcing him to lose his stick. Seconds later, Necas would outwait Francouz as he sprawled out and tuck the puck in to tie things just past the halfway point in the period. The Canes' power play had another chance to win the game with Newhook taking a penalty in the final two minutes and despite excellent puck movement, they never found their game, and the game was headed to overtime. In some ways, the Canes deserved to win this game in regulation. In other ways, the Canes were lucky to get the game to overtime. I'm not really sure what the game plan was in overtime because the Canes played it differently than they had in any of their other overtime games this season. They seemed way too urgent to score that they basically gave the puck away on a few occasions. The last time they gave it away proved to be their undoing as Artturi Lehkonen labeled a one-timer past Raanta to win despite just 15 shots. Was Seth Jarvis tripped? Probably. Does that matter now? Nope. 

As much as I'd love to see these teams play a best-of-seven series, I'm not sure the Canes would be able to handle this team. In a game where Colorado's star didn't score any points and the Canes controlled the puck, they still lost. This game had the feeling of a playoff game with the big hits and the meetings around the net. These are two of the best teams in the league, yet it's very clear who has won it all and who hasn't. Colorado won both games in this season's series in two very different ways. Saturday night, they were the aggressors for most of the night and they handed the Canes a very one-sided loss. Tonight, they were the second-best team on the ice and still came out with two points. In the playoffs, it doesn't matter if a game goes into overtime. There are no extra points. As I've been saying after most of their losses, it's still very early in the season. The Canes are still on a 106-point pace. Seeing the run the Devils are on will cause many to overreact, especially with the Canes six points back and sitting tied for second in the division. There are still 67 games left in the regular season. There is still plenty of time for the power play to get things figured out, for the Canes to beat a backup goalie, and for this team to be ready to make a run in the postseason. Don't jump to conclusions 17 games into the season. You'll only make it harder on yourself. 

Canes' Three Stars of the Game
Third Star- Brent Burns (24:15 TOI, 5 SOG, 2 Blocks)
Throughout the broadcast tonight, Tripp Tracy was gushing over Burns' play on both ends of the ice. He has started to come into his own with the team and while he didn't find the scoresheet tonight, he was a major force. He was putting his body in front of pucks, trying to do everything he could to solve Francouz, all while playing in every situation. 

Second Star- Martin Necas (Goal, Assist)
Outside of the Edmonton game last Thursday night, Necas had been quiet for most of the last two weeks. After a hot start, it looked like he was starting to cool off. Tonight, he returned in a big way. He won a battle that led to Aho's goal and then made a smart decision to wait as Francouz went down without his stick to tie the game in the third period. He also laid the body tonight, throwing three hits. 

First Star- Sebastian Aho (Goal)
Much like Necas, Aho had only played one strong game since his hat trick against the Sabres 13 days ago. He was a much different version of himself compared to Saturday night in Colorado. He couldn't collect a puck cleanly in Denver. Tonight, not only did he lay one of the hardest hits I've ever seen from him, he finally scored a goal to get the monkey off his back. This could be a good building block game for him.

What's Next
To this point in the season, the Hurricanes haven't played more than two straight games at home. That isn't set to start any time soon as they hit the road for two more. They'll be in Minnesota on Saturday night before playing in Winnipeg on Monday night. The Wild played tonight also, losing 6-4 at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins. It has not been the fast start the Wild were hoping to have after a strong season in 2021-22. They end play tonight at 7-7-1 and sit in fourth in the Central Division. If the playoffs started today, they'd be on the outside. The big development as of late has been the injury to Marc-Andre Fleury as the Wild placed him on injured reserve. They rolled with Filip Gustavsson and Zane McIntyre as the tandem tonight against the Penguins with the former getting the start, stopping 26 of 31 shots in the loss. Regardless, there is still plenty of talent amongst the skaters, led by Kirill Kaprizov. No matter who is in the net for Minnesota, anything can happen, especially against the Canes. 

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