2022 MLB Postseason- Wild Card Review and Division Series Preview

Let's just address this from the jump: I went 0/4 in my predictions for this round and I'm not surprised in the least bit. All four series were toss-ups on paper and I clearly just tails when I should've picked heads. I picked the Rays because they're my team and I thought they could do it and the other three were just guesses I made based on the data in front of me. It's even more ironic after the only series predicted to be 2-0 was the only series that needed a third game. I'll own my terrible picks and try to rebound for the division series. The action we did get this weekend was phenomenal. We had comebacks, upsets, a nearly flawless performance, and a game that didn't want to end. There was tons of excitement and I think it proves that this new format is sustainable until they opt to have eight teams from each league qualify. For now, this format works and I hope we see it for many years to come. Here's my take on what we saw this past weekend. 

American League

Cleveland Guardians defeat the Tampa Bay Rays, 2-0

Game 1- The Battle of the Shanes didn't fail to excite as two of the league's best pitchers faced off. Their lines were very similar with each only making one mistake all afternoon. The problem is that Shane McClanahan's mistake was just a little bigger than Shane Bieber's. All of the scoring happened in the sixth inning. In the top of the inning, Jose Siri took Bieber deep to score the first run of the postseason. In the bottom of the inning, Jose Ramirez did the same thing to McClanahan but his was with a man on base, giving Cleveland the 2-1 lead. Bieber went 7.2 strong innings and the bullpen shut things down to put Cleveland on the verge of advancing.  

Game 2- There was a lot of history made in this game as the Rays and Indians went blow for blow on the mound. After coming back late in the season, Tyler Glasnow took the mound for the Rays and truly looked great once again, going five innings and allowing just two hits. On the other side, Tristan McKenzie went six innings, allowing two hits and striking out eight. The real stars of this game were the bullpens. The teams would go 14 scoreless innings each, marking the longest scoreless game in postseason history, while also combining for the most strikeouts in a single game. It wasn't until the bottom of the 15th inning that Oscar Gonzales took Corey Kluber deep to give the Guardians the series win and send the Rays packing early. 

Series MVP: Cleveland Bullpen (10.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R 3 BB, 13 K combined between 7 pitchers)

Seattle Mariners defeat the Toronto Blue Jays, 2-0

Game 1- After 21 years without playing postseason baseball, the Mariners got their first taste and they wasted no time getting started. Seattle got to Manoah for three runs in the first inning, including a two-run home run from Cal Raleigh. That would end up being plenty for Luis Castillo. The Mariners ace went 7.1 innings while allowing six hits and five strikeouts as the Blue Jays' bats went quiet. They'd tack on a fourth run and would win 4-0 to win their first game in their return.

Game 2- The Blue Jays came to life in the second game. Facing former Blue Jay and Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, the Jays' Teoscar Hernandez would hit home runs in his first two at-bats as Ray would last only three innings. The Jays scored four more in the bottom of the 5th to lead 8-1. This is when Seattle woke up. They'd score four runs in the top of the sixth, aided by a three-run home run for Carlos Santana, to shrink the deficit to three. After Toronto made it 9-5, the Mariners would score four more in the top of the eighth, three would which were the result of a scary play that forced George Springer to leave the game on a stretcher. With the game tied in the ninth, Adma Frazier came up big with an RBI double, then George Kirby came in and shut the door on the Blue Jays' season as they circled up and danced their way to the ALDS.

Series MVP: Cal Raleigh (4-8, 4 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, 1.556 OPS)

National League

Philadelphia Phillies defeat the St. Louis Cardinals, 2-0

Game 1- The National League saw a pitching duel of its own on Friday as Zach Wheeler and Jose Quintana took the mound. Wheeler's statline (6.1, 2 H, BB, 4 K) was superior to Quintana's, but they both finished their days allowing zero runs and the game entered the 7th inning scoreless. Juan Yepez figured it was time to score some runs as he came off the bench and put one over the fence to give St. Louis a 2-0 lead. The score would remain the same in the 9th inning with Ryan Helsley looking to close it out. The Phillies decided it was better late than never and lit up the Cardinals for six runs and while the Cardinals tried to push back, their efforts would fall short as the Phillies grabbed the advantage.

Game 2- The Cardinals entered the game knowing very well this could be the end of the line, especially for its veterans like Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright. The Phillies didn't seem to care that much. Aaron Nola followed up Zach Wheeler's brilliant start with one of his own and Bryce Harper sent one over the fence in the second that would be more than enough on this night. Though the Cardinals would fall and their season would end, it wasn't without its bittersweet moments. Albert Pujols collected two hits in his final game, getting a standing ovation as he was subbed off for a pinch runner. Yadier Molina came up with a man on first and two outs and singled in his final at-bat, getting the same type of send-off as Pujols. The next batter would pop out in foul territory, ending the ride and putting to rest the careers of some true greats of this era.

Series MVP: Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.2 shutout innings, 4 H, BB, 6 K in Game 2)

San Diego Padres defeat the New York Mets, 2-1

Game 1- Of all the games that took place this weekend, this is probably the one game that was very surprising. What the Padres did to Max Scherzer was uncharacteristic of him. San Diego hit four home runs off the Mets' starter in 4.2 innings, including two in his final three batters in the top of the 5th before New York pulled the plug. But by this point, the game was pretty out of hand. Eduardo Escobar would hit a home run for the Mets to make sure they weren't blanked, but the Padres had this one locked down and shocked the Mets' faithful

Game 2- The second head of the Mets' duo took the mound for the second game and he was just as electric as always. Things started very slowly for both sides. Francisco Lindor and Trent Grisham traded home runs through three innings and after Pete Alonso hit one, the Mets carried a 3-2 lead through five innings. The Mets finally broke things open in the bottom of the 7th with four runs to take a five-run lead. The Mets really tried to give the game away in the ninth, loading the bases and allowing a bases-loaded walk, but they'd escape the jam with the winning run at the plate and get the win to force a winner-take-all game on Sunday night. 

Game 3- It seemed like no matter what the Mets wanted to do, Joe Musgrove had other ideas. For as good as some of the other pitching performances were, no one topped Musgrove's performance in Game 3. He went seven innings, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out five. Pete Alonso was the only Met to get a hit and Starling Marte drew a walk but that's it. For the Padres at the plate, they spread the wealth. Austin Nola drove in two in the 2nd, Trent Grisham drove in a run in the 4th, Manny Machado added to the lead in the 5th, and Juan Soto got two more in the 8th to really drive the nail home for the 6-0 win and the series win, sending the 101-win Mets home. 

Series MVP: Trent Grisham (4-8, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, .667 OBP)

Divisional Series Preview

American League

Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners

Season Series- The Astros and Mariners played 19 times across six series this season with Houston winning 12 of the 19. Justin Verlander pitched in six of those games, going 5-1 while allowing 11 runs in 42.1 innings and striking out 43. These two haven't played since the end of July, meaning there was been plenty of time for the animosity to grow. This time between since playing will also show that this Mariners team is much different than the one the Astros saw in July that lost two out of three. 

X-Factor- Julio Rodriguez (SEA)- I do think it's a little weird to have the likely AL Rookie of the Year here, but this is going to be a huge test for Rodriguez. He managed just one hit against the Blue Jays in two games, though he was on base in four of his ten plate appearances. His numbers against the Astros in the regular season weren't very good either (.218, 12 H, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 19 K). He's a major part of this offense and will be asked to hit in some big spots against one of the league's best rotations. If he struggles in this series, it could be a problem for the Mariners. 

Prediction- The Mariners taught me and all of baseball a valuable lesson in the Wild Card round. There is no game that this team is truly out of. That being said, Houston is not Toronto. This is a team that just went through an entire 162-game campaign and had their way with the Mariners. While I'm not sure which team will have the advantage since Seattle has played recently and Houston will be well-rested, I do think Games 2 and 3 will be huge for Seattle. They'll likely turn to Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray against the middle of the Astros' rotation, which could give them an advantage. I think Houston has a distinct advantage offensively, so it'll be up to the Mariners' pitching staff to limit the damage. I think Seattle will put up a fight, but I think the Astros will just be too much for Seattle to handle. Houston over Seattle in four games.  

New York Yankees v. Cleveland Guardians

Season Series- Since this is the only series to not feature two division opponents, there isn't as much season history between these two. They faced each other six times and the Yankees won five of the six games and outscored the Guardians 38-14. They played both series before the Fourth of July, so it has been over four months since their last meeting. Gerrit Cole won both of his starts against the Guardians, allowing two runs, both solo home runs, in 12.2 innings and striking out 15. The focus will be on Aaron Judge after his monster season, but his numbers against Cleveland don't stand out. He hit two of his 62 home runs against Cleveland yet he only hit .235 with four hits. 

X-Factor- Josh Naylor (CLE)- I don't see this series as being the same as the Guardians' series with Tampa Bay. There is going to be some offense put up by the Yankees if the regular season is any indication. The team only scored three runs against the Rays, two of which came from Jose Ramirez. Someone else needs to show some consistency for Cleveland and I'm looking at Josh Naylor to be that guy. There are plenty of good hitters in the Guardians' lineup, but Naylor is one of their biggest power threats. Taking advantage of the short dimensions at Yankee Stadium could help guide him to a big series.

Prediction- While it might easy to be swayed by the Yankees' dominance over the Guardians in the regular season, a lot has changed for Cleveland since early July. Any doubts that I had about Cleveland's pitching were squashed with their surgical takedown of the Rays. This is the only series where there seems to be a clear picture of the pitching matchups for the first three games. Obviously, the Yankees are going with Gerrit Cole in Game 1, but Shane Bieber and Tristan McKenzie will be back for Games 2 and 3 on extra rest. If the Guardians can get to Game 4 up 2-1 in Cleveland, I think there's a real chance they get this done. The problem is the Yankees' offense is so good and seems to hit the ball over the fence three or four times a game. All it takes is one bad start for the Guardians to open that door for the Yankees. While I think the Yankees are the safe choice, I think the Guardians could shock the world and continue the Yankees' World Series drought. While it might not be the popular pick and it almost certainly guarantees the Yankees will sweep them, I'm sticking with the hot team. Cleveland over New York in five games.

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres

Season Series- On paper, this is the series that could see some fireworks because of the "big brother-little brother" dynamic that has been going on in the NL West. The Dodgers dominated the season series, winning 14 of the 19 meetings, including two of three over the final weekend of the season. Eight different Dodgers recorded a win, with Julio Urias winning three times while Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Alex Vesia won twice. Urias was especially impressive, going 3-0 in four starts with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. The three-headed monster of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Trea Turner all his over .300 and mashed Padres' pitching all season. 

X-Factor- Cody Bellinger (LAD)- I think his struggles the last few years make us forget that Cody Bellinger is a former NL MVP. Bellinger struggled to stay above the Mendoza line this season, hitting .210 with 19 home runs and 68 RBIs. He was actually below the .200 mark against the Padres this season, though he hit five of his 19 home runs against them. Despite these struggles in the regular season, Bellinger had a good showing in the postseason last year. He hit .352 in 12 games, including .451 in their loss to Atlanta in the NLCS. He has shown he can turn it on when he needs to and it'll be even more important if the Dodgers want to go to the NLCS for the third season in a row.

Prediction- The Padres were my surprise team from the Wild Card round. They made me look like a complete idiot by getting after Scherzer in Game 1 and winning the series over New York on the road. Now, the real test for them begins because this Los Angeles team might be one of the best we've seen in a long time. I think they're even better than the team that won the World Series in 2020. I really like that they're going with Julio Urias in Game 1 because it was 100% earned after his stellar season. This leaves them with Clayton Kershaw against Yu Darvish in Game 2. Not having Walker Buehler for the postseason will stink, but it'll just be the next man up like it has been all season. The Dodgers have considerably more firepower in their arsenal of pitchers and I think this makes them the easy pick to advance over the Padres. Los Angeles over San Diego in three games. 

Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies

Season Series- The Braves held the 11-8 edge in the series, but the run differential tells a different story with the Braves scoring only three more runs. Each team has one blowout win and it was tight otherwise. The star of the series was rookie Spencer Strider, going 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA, three runs, and 34 strikeouts in 21.1 innings. He seemed to have the answer for everyone in the Phillies' lineup. Despite missing a ton of time this season, Bryce Harper played in 11 of the 19 games, hitting .286 with two home runs and eight RBIs. Kyle Schwarber also hit six home runs against the Braves, though the rest of his numbers were pretty bad. 

X-Factor- Charlie Morton (ATL)- The Braves have an arsenal of pitchers they can turn to for this series. Max Fried will go in Game 1 and then after that, you will likely see Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright for Games 2 and 3. This leaves Charlie Morton in an interesting spot. While it's possible we see him in either of those two games, I'd imagine he'll see more time out of the bullpen for this series. The Braves truly have an embarrassment of riches on the mound, so to think that someone like Morton could be the fourth man of the rotation should be seen as a good sign. Outside of a few starts in his career, Morton's postseason numbers are pretty good. If he's coming out of the bullpen in the 6th or 7th innings, it could smell doom for the Phillies on that night.

Prediction- I think this is going to be the best series of the round. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola made me a believer in this rotation and the offense has too many good hitters for this to be a quick series. On the other side, the Braves have so many stars on both sides. They're the defending champions and I think, just like the Dodgers, this team is built better than their World Series team from last year. As good as the pitching is, this is going to be a high-scoring series. The Phillies didn't need an abundance of offense to beat St. Louis, but that won't be the case in this series. I'm looking for a lot of home runs and extra-base hits to shape this series. I see this one going the distance as well. I think the Phillies breaking their drought is a good story, but it's hard not to like the Braves here. I see more consistency in their lineup and they might be the hottest team in baseball right now. Atlanta over Philadelphia in five games.