My (Not So Expert) Predictions for the 2022 NHL Playoffs

Just to get this out of the way, I'll never claim to be an expert on the NHL I'm just a fan that is super excited for the postseason to begin. It feels like the regular season just began a few weeks ago, but we've somehow made it through a full season already. Now the chase for the hardest and most coveted prize in all of sports is on the line, within the grasp of 16 teams. It's also a historic postseason, especially for the teams in the Eastern Conference. For the first time in postseason history, all eight teams in a conference have over 100 points. This brings with it an air of unpredictability because all eight of them have solid cases for why they could represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. The Western Conference isn't without its strong contenders and shouldn't be taken lightly. I'm going to give my round-by-round predictions for each series, ultimately culminating in my pick to win the Stanley Cup. My preseason pick, Vegas, is not in the postseason, so I'm starting from scratch. I'm basing my picks on a combination of the season series results between the teams, the current state of their team, and my general opinions of the teams. It's not going to be anything scientific and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm completely wrong about all of it, but that's part of the fun for me. 

1st Round

Eastern Conference

(A1) Florida Panthers v. (WC2) Washington Capitals

This has been a season unlike any other for the Florida Panthers. They've won their first-ever Presidents Trophy and have set the entire league on fire with their play down the stretch. They won 24 of their final 29 games including a 13-game win streak between 3/29 and 4/23. Jonathan Huberdeau will be in serious contention for the Hart Trophy after an unreal season (85 assists, 115 points). Aleksander Barkov (39 goals, 88 points) and Sam Reinhart (33 goals, 82 points) weren't too bad themselves and Sergei Bobrovsky had a resurgent season to prove he's still a #1 goalie in the NHL. The team on the other side knows how the win a Stanley Cup and they feature the best goal-scorer in NHL history. Alex Ovechkin reached 50 goals again at 36 years old. He continues to pile up goals as he chases Wayne Gretzky. While Florida is flying high, the Capitals are crashing hard. They've lost four in a row heading into the first round, missing several chances to jump into the top three in the Metropolitan Division in the final week. Florida won two of the three meetings this season, all three of which were decided by a single goal. Huberdeau had five points for the Panthers, while Ovechkin finished with four goals and six points, including a hat trick on November 26. These two played all three of their games in November, so it's been a while. This is also the first time they'll be meeting in the postseason, so there's no bad blood from a postseason standpoint. I think Washington is capable of hanging with Florida offensively, but the Panthers are way too good. This could get very ugly for the Capitals. Florida over Washington in five games. 

(A2) Toronto Maple Leafs v. (A3) Tampa Bay Lightning

For a team that has been around forever, it's crazy that this is Toronto's best regular season in franchise history. They finished second in the division with 53 wins and 113 points and feature the guy I think will win the Hart Trophy, 60-goal scorer Auston Matthews. Their prize for their efforts is the first round date with the two-time Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa Bay knows how to get the job done in the postseason and they feature the goalie I'd most want in the net for a series-deciding game. Toronto is clearly a top-heavy team, with heavyweights like Matthews (106 points), Marner (97 points), Nylander (80 points), and Tavares (76 points), but they've gotten contributions from rookie Michael Bunting (23 goals, 63 points), Alex Kerfoot (51 points), Ilya Mikhayev (21 goals). Jack Campbell looked to be a top contender for the Vezina at the midway point of the season, but he fell off a bit once he started fighting injuries. Tampa Bay wasn't as dangerous as they have been in recent years and injuries are a big part of that. Steven Stamkos stayed healthy and put together his first 100-point season (106) of his career, but Nikita Kucherov (69 points in 47 games) and Brayden Point (58 points in 66 games) missed considerable time. They split the season series and played a wild game in their final meeting, combining for 114 penalty minutes in an 8-1 win for Tampa Bay. Stamkos finished with nine points, while Matthews was close behind with seven, including a hat trick. Andrei Vasilevskiy played all four games for Tampa Bay, allowing 12 goals. Campbell had considerable success in his three starts, allowing just seven shots in. This is the first postseason meeting between these two franchises to go off, so a new chapter is being written. With all of Tampa Bay's recent success, Toronto hasn't won a series in forever. This is not a good opponent to have if you're looking to make a deep run. Tampa Bay won the Stanley Cup after finishing third in the division last season, so not having home ice isn't a big problem for them. I would usually pick against Toronto as a joke, but this is a tough draw for them and I think the defending champs have a good shot at getting it done. Tampa Bay over Toronto in seven games. 

(M1) Carolina Hurricanes v. (WC1) Boston Bruins

The Hurricanes and Bruins have a ton of postseason experience against one another. They've met four times prior to this season, including in consecutive seasons in 2018-19 and 2019-20, Boston winning in four games and five games. The problem for Carolina in each series has been scoring a combined 16 goals in the nine games during those two series. Those scoring woes were nowhere to be found during the three meetings this season for the Canes. They outscored Boston 16-1 in three games, including 13-1 in two games in Boston. Boston's lone goal was a power play goal from Patrice Bergeron in the first period of their second game. Frederik Andersen was the goalie for all three games, while Boston started three different goalies with varying degrees of success. The regular season doesn't mean much once the postseason begins, but it's hard to ignore the Canes' dominance over the Bruins this season. Both Teuvo Teravainen (1 goal, 5 assists) and Andrei Svechnikov (3 goals, 3 assists) finished with six points and Sebastian Aho (2 goals, 2 assists) and Tony DeAngelo (1 goal, 3 assists) were close behind with four each. I don't think this is going to be the same Boston team from the regular season though. They fought through some injury problems with some of their top players, but they all still performed well when they were in the lineup. Brad Marchand (80 points in 70 games) and David Pastrnak (77 points in 72 games) both operated over a point-per-game and both Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmaek were good in an equal number of starts. Carolina got scoring up and down the lineup all season long. Aho led the team in goals (37), assists (44), and points (81). They featured nine 40+ point scorers, 11 players with 10+ goals, and several players breaking career-high in offensive categories. Andersen should be a finalist for the Vezina, finishing top ten in many goaltending categories. The winner of this series is going to be the team that gets the best goaltending. If Andersen isn't ready to play by Monday, then the two teams have a combined six postseason appearances between them (Raanta has five, Swayman has one). I think Carolina is going to be able to out-defend the Bruins in this series regardless of who is in the net. Carolina over Boston in six games. 

(M2) New York Rangers v. (M3) Pittsburgh Penguins

For as close as the Penguins were to the top of the division with two months to go, they've fallen off a bit to close the season. They went just 13-11-3 in March and April, falling well out of home-ice contention and getting into a dog fight down the stretch with Washington for the final automatic spot in the division. They ultimately won the fight and the right to play the Rangers in the first round. After a shutout win for Jarry in their first meeting this season, the Rangers rattled off wins in the final three, outscoring the Penguins 11-3. Chris Kreider (3 goals, 3 assists) and Mika Zibanejad (6 assists) paced the season series with six points each, while no Penguin scored more than two points. Kreider has been one of the most remarkable seasons from out of nowhere in recent memory. He finished with 52 goals, fourth-most in the league, after never cracking the 30-goal mark in his career. The usual suspects were all amazing for the Rangers this season. Panarin set a new career-high with 74 assists and 96 points. Zibanejad (81 points) and Adam Fox (74 points) also smashed their previous highs. The talk of the town has been likely Vezina-winner Igor Shesterkin. He's incredible all season and could likely get some Hart consideration. The Penguins have dealt with some serious injury issues all season. Their stars all missed significant time throughout the year. Sidney Crosby (84 points) tied Jake Guentzel (team-leading 40 goals) for the team lead in points, despite just 69 games. Bryan Rust (58 points) played in just 60 games and Evgeni Malkin (42 points) missed over half the season. Despite these injuries, they've had guys step up and get them to where they are now. There is some history between these two in the playoffs. This will be the seventh meeting in postseason play and the first time since 2015-16. Pittsburgh has won four of the six previous series, including the first round meeting in 2015-16 in five games. The big news coming into the series is the injuries to Jason Zucker and Tristan Jarry that will keep them out for the first two games in New York. I think the Rangers are just too good in every aspect compared to the Rangers. Add that Pittsburgh will be without their starter and it could make for a quick exit for the Penguins. New York over Pittsburgh in five games.

Western Conference

(C1) Colorado Avalanche v. (WC2) Nashville Predators

My initial reaction to looking at this series is that Colorado was going to sweep Nashville and it wasn't going to be close. With Juuse Saros out for the series, I felt even more justified in my thinking. Nashville shouldn't even be in this situation. They could've been the first wild card team getting ready to play Calgary. In their final game, they led 4-0 midway through the first period against Arizona. The Coyotes responded with five unanswered goals to steal the win and force Nashville into the final spot. Upon further research into this series, Nashville doesn't look half bad. They won three of four against Colorado, including two games in extra time. With Saros out, Rittich is going to be the starter and his numbers look less than stellar in two games against the Avalanche (10 goals allowed), but the offense has been humming. They scored nine times on Darcy Kuemper in two games, led by Roman Josi's six points, Filip Forsberg's five, and Matt Duchene's four goals. The Avalanche's stars have also been putting the puck into the net against Nashville. Makar finished with seven points, while Nazem Kadri and Mikko Rantanen had six each. The firepower of the Avalanche is tough to compete against. Four players finished with 80+ points, including Nathan MacKinnon (88 points) despite just 65 games. Nashville got bounce-back seasons from their trip of Forsberg (42 goals), Duchene (43 goals), and Ryan Johansen (63 points). The focus on this series is going to be Makar going up against Roman Josi (96 points) as the two are the front-runners for the Norris Trophy. Colorado and Nashville have met only once in the postseason. Nashville won the series in six games in 2017-18. I don't think Colorado is going to sweep Nashville, but I don't see Nashville putting up much of a fight for an entire series without their starting goalie. Colorado over Nashville in five games. 

(C2) Minnesota Wild v. (C3) St. Louis Blues

This has the makings to be one of the most phenomenal first-round matchups in the West. These two were neck-in-neck down the stretch during the regular season and played two extremely tight overtime games in April. St. Louis won all three meetings, including the Winter Classic at Target Field on New Year's Day and twice in overtime. The two teams scored 28 combined goals in three meetings. Cam Talbot was the starter for all three games for the Wild, allowing 16 goals in three losses, and Kirill Kaprizov finished with six points. Ville Husso started the two overtime games and Robert Thomas added a goal and four assists. These two teams feel the same, yet so different. Minnesota relies on its stars, namely Kaprizov (47 goals, 108 points), and has a decent goalie duo in Talbot and Marc-Andre Fleury. St. Louis is far more balanced offensively, featuring eight players with 50+ points. We know both of these teams can score, so the big difference is going to be which goalie can make the stops went they need them. I'd imagine it'll be Fleury and Husso starting Game 1, so the edge would likely go to Fleury given his postseason pedigree. This is the third postseason meeting between the two, each team winning a series (2014-15 1st Round- Wild in six, 2016-17 1st Round- Blues in five). I could see this series going the distance with the tightness of these two in the regular season and I think that favors the more balanced attack of the St. Louis Blues. They know what it takes to advance in the postseason, so they'll pick up this series. St. Louis over Minnesota in seven games. 

(P1) Calgary Flames v. (WC1) Dallas Stars

Nashville's loss is Dallas' gain, sort of. While Dallas won't have to deal with Colorado, they'll square off with a red-hot Calgary team. The Flames are one of just two teams, Edmonton being the other, this season with a 100-point duo. Johnny Gaudreau (114 points) and Matthew Tkachuk (104 points) both shattered their previous career-highs in points to finish over 100 for the first time. Add Elias Lindholm to the mix and they're the only team in the league with three 40-goal scorers. They're one of the few teams in the league that balance a lethal offense with a suffocating defense, led by their starting goalie Jacob Markstrom. A case could be made for Markstrom in the Vezina conversation, finishing the season with 37 wins and nine shutouts. Dallas features one of my favorite lines to watch in the entire league. It consists of the ageless wonder, Joe Pavelski (team-leading 54 assists and 81 points), Roope Hintz (37 goals), and one of the most under-talked about players, Jason Robertson (team-leading 41 goals). I've seen this be the only line clicking for Dallas and still carry them to victory. Jake Oettinger stepped up and played some huge games for the Stars as he'll be the starter heading into the first round. Calgary won two of the three meetings in the regular season. Dallas scored an overtime win in the first game, but Calgary won the last two, including a win at the end of the season. No one player stood out throughout the season series, just a bunch of the stars on both sides playing consistent hockey. This will be the third playoff series between the two franchises, the most recent taking place in the bubble in 2020. Dallas won that series in six games on their way to the Stanley Cup Final. Much like with some other teams in the playoffs, I worry whether Calgary can get consistent scoring from beyond the top six. There's a huge drop-off in points for the Flames after Lindholm. This is going to be a series that drives both teams insane because neither team will be able to pull too far ahead. I think the star power of the Flames is going to out shadow just how strong the Stars' best guys are as Markstrom outduels Oettinger. Calgary over Dallas in six games. 

(P2) Edmonton Oilers v. (P3) Los Angeles Kings

For as good as McDavid and Draisaitl are, the Oilers have seen almost no postseason success. They've won just one postseason series in their careers and many are waiting for them to make a major splash. I think they've been set up for success in this series despite how close these two teams finished in the standings. The Oilers dropped the first meeting 5-1 early in the year, then rattled off three straight wins over the Kings. McDavid scored two points in each of the Oilers' wins, though Draisaitl was a little quiet. Edmonton was quite literally the McDavid (123 points) and Draisaitl (110 points) Show this season with the next highest scorer being Zach Hyman with 54 points. Los Angeles isn't blowing anyone away, but they are a pretty balanced team. Anze Kopitar found that top gear this season, Adrian Kempe shattered his career-high in goals with 35, and offseason signing Philip Danault set a new career-high with 27 goals despite being known as a defensive specialist. These two teams have played seven times in the postseason, but are meeting for the first time since 1991-92. The Oilers hold a slight edge, winning four of the seven previous series. This is another series that is going to come down to goaltending. Mike Smith played extremely well in his two outings this season against the Kings, while Jonathan Quick didn't play poorly either. I worry whether the Oilers will get enough depth scoring outside of their two stars. I think they'll be able to overcome that in this round and I don't think Los Angeles stands much of a chance without Drew Doughty in the lineup as Dustin Brown goes out early in his last ride. Edmonton over Los Angeles in five games. 

2nd Round

Eastern Conference

(A1) Florida Panthers v. (A3) Tampa Bay Lightning

With the second round comes the completely hypothetical portion of the predictions because this could all be thrown off if anything above is incorrect. My first matchup in the second round is a rematch from the first round last season. It's the second battle for Florida and the roles are a bit reversed this time around. Last season, despite being the higher seed, the Panthers weren't really seen as the favorite since the Lightning were the defending champions. This season, Florida won the Presidents' Trophy, so this is their time to shine. Each side split scored two wins in similar ways. Both have one closer win and one blowout win. The final two games are of particular interest to me. The final two games saw a combined 24 goals, Florida winning 9-3 on December 30 and Tampa Bay winning 8-4 on April 24. In each game, the winning team's stars showed up in a big way. Jonathan Huberdeau scored a goal and four assists in Florida's blowout win, while Nikita Kucherov scored twice and added three assists in Tampa's big win at the end of the season. Despite likely being the starter for the series, Sergei Bobrovsky only started once against the Lightning, appearing a second time in relief of Spencer Knight. Andrei Vasilevskiy started three times and the only time he didn't was the 9-3 game. Last season's series was largely one-sided in favor of the Lightning despite going six games. The winning team scored four or more goals in all but one of the games. Huberdeau recorded ten points in the series, outdone only by Kucherov's 11. The real problem was that Florida had to use three different goalies in the series and they rarely made it through a complete game. It's a new series in a new season and I think this is going to be a bloodbath. I'm torn on who I think will win because there is an argument for both teams. In the end, I'm going to side with Florida based on their phenomenal season, ensuring that they'll be a new champion this year. Florida over Tampa Bay in seven games.

(M1) Carolina Hurricanes v. (M2) New York Rangers

It came down to the wire in the Metropolitan Division between the Hurricanes and Rangers. The division was ultimately decided in the final week with the Hurricanes beating the Rangers on the road to secure their supremacy over the division. The two teams split the first two meetings of the series in Raleigh. The Canes put six goals on Alexander Georgiev in the first game, but he responded with a 44-save shutout in the rematch. Carolina won both games against Igor Shesterkin in New York in April, winning 4-2 and 4-3 en route to the division crown. Chris Kreider scored a goal in all four meetings and Zibanejad (1 goal, 4 assists) also recorded a point in each game. For the Canes, Sebastian Aho finished with six points, with Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov putting across four points. This will be the second time these two meet in the postseason. They met during the qualifying round in the Toronto bubble in 2020 in what would be Henrik Lundqvist's final appearance in the league. The Rangers had swept the Canes in the regular season going into the bubble, but they were outclassed in a big way during this best-of-five series. The Canes dominated play, beating Lundqvist in Games 1 and 2 before Shesterkin took the loss in Game 3. Aho finished with eight points in the sweep, while the Rangers' leading scorers only had two points each. I'm operating under the assumption that Frederik Andersen will be back should the Canes make it to the second round. If that's the case, we'll likely be getting an entire series of Andersen v. Shesterkin. I think the Canes have proven they can beat the Rangers and should Andersen be ready, he'll only add to the Canes' chances of moving on in a very tight series. Carolina over New York in seven games. 

Western Conference

(C1) Colorado Avalanche v. (C3) St. Louis Blues

This is the point of the postseason that Colorado has trouble getting through every season. They haven't advanced to the conference finals since 2001-02, failing in their last ten attempts. They won the first two games in the second round last year, but they lost the next four to fail again to advance. The team they beat to advance to the second round last season? The St. Louis Blues. It was the second time they'd met in the postseason and the Avalanche dominated all four games. They scored four or more goals in all four games against Jordan Binnington, sweeping the series in short order. MacKinnon led all scorers with six goals and nine points. Robert Thomas and Ryan O'Reilly finished with three assists each for the Blues. The two teams met three times this season. St. Louis won the first meeting on Opening Night and Colorado won the two meetings after that. For as many lethal scorers as the Avalanche have, it was JT Compher that seemed to have the Blues' number this season. He had a multi-point night in all three meetings, finishing with three goals and three assists. Darcy Kuemper and Jordan Binnington faced off all three times, with Kuemper edging him by allowing one fewer goal and winning two of the three games. I don't think we'll see another sweep like last season, but it's hard to pick against the Avalanche. I've ultimately decided to pick the Avalanche because I trust their stars in big games. I think they'll pull this one out in a series that could surprise some. Colorado over St. Louis in six games.

(P1) Calgary Flames v. (P2) Edmonton Oilers

It feels like the Battle of Alberta has become must-view television in the last several seasons. The fact that we could get it in the postseason only adds to the intrigue. It has only happened five times and we've yet to see it this century. They met four times this season, twice early in the year and twice in March. Edmonton and Calgary were different teams at those two different points in the season and the results of each game reflect that. Edmonton won the first two games, 5-2 and 5-3, getting a hat trick from Connor McDavid in the first game and a four-point night from Draisaitl in the second. Calgary won both meetings in March, including a 9-5 scoring fest in their final meeting. Johnny Gaudreau finished the game with five assists, while Draisaitl had a hat trick for Edmonton. Draisaitl had 11 points in four games this season, three more than Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk had for the Flames. Calgary has only ever beaten Edmonton once in the postseason, winning in seven games back in 1985-86 when they lost in the Stanley Cup Final to Montreal. There is no doubt these teams can score, meaning goaltending would be the key to this series. Jacob Markstrom played in all four games this season, allowing 16 goals, while both Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen started games for the Oilers. Each goalie won and lost a game, but Smith was the better goalie, allowing just six goals compared to Koskinen's 11. There was no goalie in the league better than Smith in the final month of the season. I think it's very possible for Edmonton to take it to Calgary. Neither team has incredible depth scoring outside of their best two or three players. I see no reason why Smith can't beat Markstrom in a series that is likely to see a lot of goals scored. Edmonton over Calgary in seven games.

Eastern Conference Final

(A1) Florida Panthers v. (M1) Carolina Hurricanes

The two teams with the most points in the Eastern Conference meeting in the Eastern Conference Final feels way too good to be true. I do think that any combinations of the eight teams in the east could possibly make it to this point, but go with me here. These two were division rivals last season, finishing first and second in the division, but never meeting in the second round. The season series was one-sided in terms of the results, but two of the three games went to overtime. Florida won all three games this season. The Panthers handed the Hurricanes their first loss of the season back in November, winning 5-2 in a four-goal performance from Anthony Duclair. Alex Lyon had to make a spot start for the Hurricanes in the second meeting and he helped earn the team a point in an overtime loss, ended by Duclair. The Panthers overcame a late deficit by tying it late in the third period and then winning it quickly in overtime to sweep the season series. This is going to be the battle of a great offense against the best defense in the league. I'm a Canes fan, which means there is a little bias on my end, but I think that the Panthers are going to be hard to stop, meaning I have to pick against my team here. Florida over Carolina in six games.

Western Conference Final

(C1) Colorado Avalanche v. (P2) Edmonton Oilers

I feel like this is a battle we should've seen a few times in the postseason, but they've only met twice and it was in consecutive years in 1996-97 and 1997-98. They've split their last two meetings in the playoffs and I feel like this could be a major battle between some of the most talented players in the world. I always thought for a long time that Connor McDavid and Nathen MacKinnon were the two best players in the world. I think Auston Matthews has eclipsed MacKinnon at this point, but that doesn't take away from how great he is. He might be one of the most fun players in the league to watch, especially when he picks up speed going through the neutral zone. Colorado won two of the three meetings this season, both of which came in extra time. Edmonton scored a 6-3 win late in the season with Evander Kane notching a hat trick. Darcy Kuemper played well in Colorado's two wins but looked human when he allowed six goals. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen both played well during their starts, allowing just seven goals combined. I think this could be a fun series, but this is the point where I worry about whether Smith or Koskinen, whoever they opt to go with, can keep up with the other teams. Colorado is the better team top to bottom, so this could be a quick series. Colorado over Edmonton in five games. 

Stanley Cup Final

(A1) Florida Panthers v. (C1) Colorado Avalanche

If the Florida Panthers make it this far, it would be the second time they've ever made it to the Stanley Cup Final. They came up short that first time, losing to the team I predict to make it out of the Western Conference, the Colorado Avalanche. The 1996 Final was all Colorado, sweeping Florida in four straight to secure their first Stanley Cup victory. The final that year ended with a 3OT winner from Uwe Krupp to win the series in Game 4. That Colorado team featured legends like Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, and Peter Forsberg. Florida was this young franchise that hadn't experienced much good in their history and they'd finished third in their division that season before making a great run. This time around, they're the two best teams from the regular season. That fact alone makes this almost as unlikely to be the matchup, but I'd like to see the two best teams in the league square off for once. They played twice in the regular season, splitting the two meetings, though Colorado's win was in overtime. I think these two could have a messy series given the talent involved. While I think it was Colorado's time in the late-90s, the time has come for Florida to win the Stanley Cup. Florida over Colorado in six games. Comm Smythe Winner: Aleksander Barkov