Carolina Hurricanes First Half Review and Second Half Preview

The State of the Team

This is likely to go down as one of the best first-half performances in franchise history. The team finished with a record of 31-9-2 in their first 42 games. They had nearly identical records at home (16-4-1) and on the road (15-5-1). Sebastian Aho leads the team in goals (19) and points (45), while he's tied with Tony DeAngelo in assists (26). They've had a huge amount of depth scoring from up and down the roster. Nine different players have at least 20 points (Aho- 45, Svechnikov- 38, DeAngelo- 33, Teravainen- 32, Trocheck- 30, Necas- 22, Slavin- 22, Niederreiter- 21, Kotkaniemi- 20). 13 players have at least six goals, with five players in double-digits. The goaltending has been another great story. Frederik Andersen sits at 24-6-0 with a goal against average just north of 2.00 (2.01) and a save percentage of .929. Antti Raanta has also been good this season as the backup when healthy (6-2-1, 2.21 GAA, .914 SV%). Both special teams units are in the top ten in the league at the time of the All-Star Break. They'll enter the second half of the season as the top dogs in the Metropolitan Divison, with the Rangers and Penguins breathing down their necks. They've put themselves in a great position to get into the playoffs and be a major contender. 

Evaluating the New Guys

F Jesperi Kotkaniemi (9 Goals, 11 Assists, 20 Points in 42 Games)

I expected Kotkaniemi to be playing in a more prominent role, possibly in the top six, but he's found a home playing mostly in the bottom six and getting some time on the second power play unit. He's been an extremely streaky scorer. He had just eight points (6G, 2A) in his first 26 games, but he got hot when the team was struggling through COVID. He went on a six-game point streak (G, 7A) from 12/12 to 1/7. He only has four points since then, but he's fitting on the team more with each passing game. I'm still waiting for him to hit that next level, but there's still plenty of time for that. Grade- B

F Derek Stepan (6 Goals, 7 Assists, 13 Points in 34 Games)

Stepan's signing was a curious one since the Canes had a lot of forward depth, but he's another guy that has played a role very well. He's been a healthy scratch a few games and he's mostly played on the fourth line when he's in the lineup. He had a pedestrian first couple of months, scoring just six points (3G, 3A) through the end of December. In January, he scored more points than he had all season, notching seven points (3G, 4A) in just 11 games. He has been exactly what the team expected him to be, serving his role well. Grade- B+

F Seth Jarvis (8 Goals, 10 Assists, 18 Points in 33 Games)

The only rookie on this list for the Canes, Jarvis made the team out of camp but was a healthy scratch for the first few games. He made his NHL debut on October 31 and made an immediate impact, notching his first point with an assist on the game-winning goal against Arizona. He would score his first NHL goal in the next game against Chicago and he's been a regular in the lineup ever since. He's tenth on the team in points and tenth in the league in scoring for rookies. He has at least one point in more than half of his games (17 of 33) and he's going to be good for a long time. Grade- A-

D Ethan Bear (2 Goals, 6 Assists, 8 Points in 30 Games)

The trade sending Warren Foegele to Edmonton for Ethan Bear was one of my favorite moves the team made. I was looking forward to seeing him join a loaded defensive core and seeing him breakout. It hasn't been the ideal start to the season, going into COVID protocol in November and then being a healthy scratch some in January. He's tied his point total from last season (2G, 6A, 8P), he's spent some time with Jaccob Slavin on the top pairing, and he's gotten a little bit of time on the power play. There's still some time to get those totals up, but this has been a good trade for the team this season. Grade- B-

D Ian Cole (2 Goals, 9 Assists, 11 Points in 40 Games)

Another depth signing for the team, Cole has been one of the bigger surprises for the team to start the year. He's seen a lot of time on the penalty kill so far and has primarily been a third pair guy, though that's all relative with this team. He did spend some time in COVID protocol in December, but he's been a new player since then. He had just four points (G, 3A) in the 27 games before he tested positive, but has scored seven points (G, 6A) in his last 13 games since returning to the lineup. He's been an invaluable part of the defense through 42 games. Grade- B+

D Brendan Smith (2 Goals, 2 Assists, 4 Points in 24 Games)

Smith has primarily been the seventh defenseman, yet he's played in more than half the team's games. He's the guy the team calls on when a defenseman goes out with COVID or an injury. He's had some good moments, like his first goal of the season being the game-winner against St. Louis, but he's also had some rough games. He's not going to be a big point-scorer and he's not going to be the most reliable defender. He had a good stretch of games in January, but that's not enough to make me think he's been great. Grade- C-

D Tony DeAngelo (7 Goals, 26 Assists, 33 Points in 35 Games)

The controversy behind this signing is well-documented among the fanbase and experts alike. Many still aren't happy about it, but it's not my job to tell them how to react. The player on the ice has been phenomenal. DeAngelo is third on the team in scoring, tied with Aho in assists, and first on the team in power play assists (13). He's not the more reliable defenseman, but he certainly has his moments. He quarterbacks the first power play unit very well and he's well worth the $1 million the team spent on him in the offseason and I think he's likely to be due for an extension soon. Grade- A

G Frederik Andersen (24-6-0, 2.01 GAA, .929 SV%, 4 Assists in 30 Games)

The goaltending situation was a major concern for many coming into the season, but that's nothing new for the Canes. Through the first half, Andersen is easily the team's best signing this offseason and might be among one of the best signings in the entire league. He set an NHL record with 24 wins in his first 30 appearances with a new franchise. He was the third star in the league in October and the league's second star from January 23-29. He also leads all goalies with four assists. He's having a resurgence of sorts with the Canes and I'm hoping he can keep this up in the final 40 games. Grade- A+

G Antti Raanta (6-2-1, 2.21 GAA, .914 SV% in 11 Games)

Much like with Andersen, the worry with Raanta is that he wouldn't be able to stay healthy long enough to make an impact. While he has gotten hurt twice and missed some time, he's been good when he's in the net outside of an appearance or two. The team has only dropped five total points out of 18 possible points in his nine decisions and he's allowed no more than three goals in any of his appearances. He's had long breaks between appearances a couple of times this season due to extenuating circumstances, but he's performed well. He's been a serviceable backup, the role he was brought in to play. Grade- B

Other Newcomers/Debuting Rookies

F Josh Leivo (Goal, 2 Assists, 3 Points in 5 Games)

F Jack Drury (2 Goals, 0 Assists, 2 Points in 2 Games)

F Andrew Poturalski (0 Goals, 2 Assists, 2 Points in 2 Games)

F Stefan Noesen (0 Points in 2 Games)

F CJ Smith (0 Points in 1 Game)

D Jalen Chatfield (0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Point in 7 Games)

G Alex Lyon (1-0-1, 2.93 GAA, .908 SV% in 2 Games)

G Jack LaFontaine (0-1-0, 7.20 GAA, .780 SV% in 2 Games)

Re-Visiting My Ten Predictions for the Season

Before the season started I made some predictions about how I thought the season would go. I want to take a look at where I went right and where I may have been off by just a little bit. With these preseason predictions, I'll make some slight adjustments to make them more applicable to the second half, while also making some fresh predictions for the final 40 games. 

1. Tony DeAngelo will make it through the season without a single incident

I still can't believe this had to be a prediction, but I'm glad that we've made it this far into the season and nothing bad has happened. His teammates seem to have nothing but compliments for how he is in the locker room and on the ice. He's won over a lot of the fanbase with his play and I don't expect that to change. NEW PREDICTION: The same will happen in the second half and he gets an extension before the offseason. 

2. Jaccob Slavin will be a finalist for the Norris Trophy

This was a slightly ambitious prediction especially since Slavin isn't known for producing the most points. He's received Norris votes each of the last five seasons, finishing as high as fifth in 2019-20. He's just 15 points away from setting a new career high and he's been just as strong defensively as he always is. I don't think it's going to happen, but it was a fun thought. NEW PREDICTION- Slavin will receive Norris votes for the sixth straight season and finish in the top 20. 

3. Ethan Bear is the team's breakout player for the season

As much as I like Ethan Bear, he hasn't been the breakout player I was hoping he'd be. He has just eight points, has been a healthy scratch for a few games, and hasn't been the force I'd envisioned. I think we've only seen a fraction of what he can do. I think he'll have a strong second half, but I don't think he's the team's breakout player with the way Seth Jarvis has played as a rookie. NEW PREDICTION- Bear will triple his point total in the second half (at least 16 points). 

4. Frederick Andersen bounces back, stays healthy, and finishes top seven in Vezina voting

Of all my bold predictions in the preseason, I knocked this one out of the park. Andersen has been one of the team's most valuable players through 42 games, winning 24 of his first 30 games with the team. He's stayed healthy, outside of an appearance on the COVID list, and has definitely bounced back. NEW PREDICTION- Andersen will be a Vezina finalist, or at least be in the top five in voting. 

5. We will see two of Ryan Suzuki, Seth Jarvis, and Jack Drury play by the end of the season

It didn't take long for this prediction to come true. Seth Jarvis made the team out of camp and has been a major part of the team since late October. Jack Drury's debut with the team was a bit unexpected and under unusual circumstances with a lot of guys out with COVID. Despite this, he has two goals in two games. We still haven't seen Ryan Suzuki due to injury, but there's no need to rush him along. NEW PREDICTION- Drury will see more time in the NHL and Suzuki will make his debut in the second half. 

6. Jesperi Kotkaniemi tops 50 points and has signed an extension by the end of January

The offer sheet is more of the most talked-about moments of the offseason and Montreal fans still aren't over it. Kotkaniemi's nine goals would tie him for first on the Canadiens and his 20 points would be tied for third. He scored his first goal as a Hurricane in Montreal. I don't quite think he'll get to 50 points and he didn't get the extension in January, but he's going to be just fine. NEW PREDICTION- Kotkaniemi finishes with at least 35 points and signs an extension at some point during the season. 

7. The Canes will have top ten power play and penalty kill units

This wasn't the boldest prediction given the team's recent history, but they are on pace to knock this one out. They have the best penalty kill in the league and the power play is hovering towards the bottom half of the top ten. The kill is on a potential record-breaking pace, just 0.6% behind the 2011-12 Devils for best kill percentage in NHL history. NEW PREDICTION- The Canes' penalty kill breaks the NHL record for kill percentage in a season (>89.6%). 

8. Sebastian Aho will break Eric Staal's franchise record of 45 goals

As the team's MVP for the first half of the season, Aho has gotten the job done whenever he steps on the ice. The 45-goal mark from Eric Staal seems like it's never going to be touched, but Aho can do it. At his current pace (19 goals in 39 games), he'll fall just short of 40 goals, but that doesn't account for any potential streaks he could have in the second half. NEW PREDICTION- Aho scores at a point-per-game pace in the second half, falls just short of 40 goals. 

9. The team will finish in the top three of the division to earn an automatic spot in the postseason

The Metropolitan Divison is a three-team race right now between the Canes, Rangers, and Penguins with the Capitals just outside of the picture. The Canes still have three games against the Rangers, three games against the Penguins, and three games against the Capitals. There are still plenty of chances to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, but they are top three for sure. NEW PREDICTION- Carolina will win the Metropolitan Division by at least five points. 

10. The Carolina Hurricanes will play in the Eastern Conference Final

Given how things are going in the Eastern Conference right now, it's wide open. Between Florida, Toronto, or the two-time reigning champions from Tampa Bay in the Atlantic or the three teams I mentioned above in the Metro, it's anyone's guess who will make it to the Eastern Conference Final and the Stanley Cup. The Canes have a shot, but there's some stiff competition. NEW PREDICTION- The Canes will win the Prince of Wales Trophy and play in the SCF. 

Three Predictions for the Second Half of the Season

1. Seth Jarvis will be a finalist for the Calder Trophy

Jarvis has taken a prominent role on the team in his brief stint with the big club and he had a good first half. There are a lot of other rookies in the league that are going to get more attention than him, but I'm expecting big things from Jarvis in the second half. He should be in the conversation by the time the awards are being announced. 

2. At least ten players finish with 40 points

Aho has already eclipsed 40 points and, barring some major catastrophe, Svechnikov (38 points this season), DeAngelo (33), Teravainen (32), and Trocheck (30) will get there very soon. I think there are some guys in the 20-point range right now that are likely to get there as the depth scoring continues to shine through. 

3. The Hurricanes will break the franchise record for points in a season (>112 points)

Back when the team won the Stanley Cup in 2005-06, they won the Southeast Division with 112 points. The team is on pace right for 125 points in a full season. I don't think they're going to stay this hot for the second half, but I think they should absolutely finish with more points than any team in Hartford/Carolina history.